{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-5855JBL478",
  "slug": "how-many-different-countries-will-the-us-strike-in-2026",
  "question": "Will the US conduct military action against more than one country in 2026?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "us-military",
    "2026",
    "international-conflict",
    "armed-intervention",
    "quantitative"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the count of distinct countries where the US initiates drone, missile, or air strikes in 2026. Polymarket structures this as 16 discrete binary contracts, each pricing a specific country count from 0 to 15 or more. Together they form an implied probability distribution over the full range of outcomes. Resolution occurs via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against publicly reported strike activity through December 31, 2026.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-Y9W4GFR3T7",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.001,
    "implied_probability": 0.001
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-ZGCR8PVMW9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5855JBL478",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x7f225432b33c764f462d153419b30dd608b630a6765d70bbe9c760aa1c1bac0f",
      "question": "Will the US strike 0 countries in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nStrikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.\n\nStrikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the u",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "0: The total number of different countries' soil where the United States initiates drone, missile, or air strikes between January 1 and December 31, 2026, as determined by UMA Optimistic Oracle by May 7, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-01-03T15:12:03Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nStrikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.\n\nStrikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nMissiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.\n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 38,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 9493.583642,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 0,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "geopolitics",
        "military",
        "us",
        "us military strikes"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-3JWGX2TNH0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5855JBL478",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xf8f7b823f09d2247b6b35e8274c2c060e936b6399c66de91ab817472fa23987f",
      "question": "Will the US strike 2 countries in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nStrikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.\n\nStrikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the u",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "2: The total number of different countries' soil where the United States initiates drone, missile, or air strikes between January 1 and December 31, 2026, as determined by UMA Optimistic Oracle by May 7, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-01-11T01:59:02Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nStrikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.\n\nStrikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nMissiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.\n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 38,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 31121.238301,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 2,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "geopolitics",
        "military",
        "us",
        "us military strikes"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-CSRW2M46M5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5855JBL478",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xdea318eedf9bce218d227352cf3736f2ba1fd424953d44d27b480a9b8f379e80",
      "question": "Will the US strike 4 countries in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nStrikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.\n\nStrikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the u",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "4: The total number of different countries' soil where the United States initiates drone, missile, or air strikes between January 1 and December 31, 2026, as determined by UMA Optimistic Oracle by May 7, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-03-08T10:28:19Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nStrikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.\n\nStrikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nMissiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.\n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 38,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": null,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "geopolitics",
        "military",
        "us",
        "us military strikes"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Y9W4GFR3T7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5855JBL478",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x066f2341d819cd15d2562bddd08b99584dcce1e546b6a4749643e221fae8ea0b",
      "question": "Will the US strike 6 countries in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nStrikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.\n\nStrikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the u",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "6: The total number of different countries' soil where the United States initiates drone, missile, or air strikes between January 1 and December 31, 2026, as determined by UMA Optimistic Oracle by May 7, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-05-07T01:50:01Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nStrikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.\n\nStrikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nMissiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.\n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 38,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 544339.1544739999,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 6,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "geopolitics",
        "military",
        "us",
        "us military strikes"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-48QYMZDY92",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5855JBL478",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x713ab27f31c1d8080ea3b9c21c8a021609f8fcb7aad13a87b8b069265e7fdfda",
      "question": "Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nStrikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.\n\nStrikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the u",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "8: The total number of different countries' soil where the United States initiates drone, missile, or air strikes between January 1 and December 31, 2026, as determined by UMA Optimistic Oracle by May 7, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nStrikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.\n\nStrikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nMissiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.\n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 38,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.456,
      "implied_probability": 0.456,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1326.946057,
      "volume_total_usd": 303654.7620259998,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 8,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "geopolitics",
        "military",
        "us",
        "us military strikes"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-V1L0YTLLV1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5855JBL478",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x30a1d62f46f58d036cccd96b0e468ff3165e238cd3bef03441370ad3c1fd1b86",
      "question": "Will the US strike 10 countries in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nStrikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.\n\nStrikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the u",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "10: The total number of different countries' soil where the United States initiates drone, missile, or air strikes between January 1 and December 31, 2026, as determined by UMA Optimistic Oracle by May 7, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nStrikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.\n\nStrikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nMissiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.\n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 38,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.097,
      "implied_probability": 0.097,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 25405.925191000002,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 10,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "geopolitics",
        "military",
        "us",
        "us military strikes"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-92G080J8Y6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5855JBL478",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xabb74975229f7e4fcd68de841df580bfb6b1fd6a43c3f2607612eed07b93f6b1",
      "question": "Will the US strike 12 countries in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nStrikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.\n\nStrikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the u",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "12: The total number of different countries' soil where the United States initiates drone, missile, or air strikes between January 1 and December 31, 2026, as determined by UMA Optimistic Oracle by May 7, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nStrikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.\n\nStrikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nMissiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.\n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 38,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.022,
      "implied_probability": 0.022,
      "volume_24h_usd": 8.14,
      "volume_total_usd": 43434.75079799999,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 12,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "geopolitics",
        "military",
        "us",
        "us military strikes"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-R1JSFMDK38",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5855JBL478",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xa9433e26ddb6e037fd5c7c7451f77829740822fa12e2bdf82406624661434ba0",
      "question": "Will the US strike 14 countries in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nStrikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.\n\nStrikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the u",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "14: The total number of different countries' soil where the United States initiates drone, missile, or air strikes between January 1 and December 31, 2026, as determined by UMA Optimistic Oracle by May 7, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nStrikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.\n\nStrikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nMissiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.\n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 38,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.008,
      "implied_probability": 0.008,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 148578.47697899985,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 14,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "geopolitics",
        "military",
        "us",
        "us military strikes"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-6DY35LG850",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5855JBL478",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xa385f67d11ae4653ffe7b928c711f482b78ccbefabbf6fab8f78af2471db3efc",
      "question": "Will the US strike 1 country in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nStrikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.\n\nStrikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the u",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "The total number of different countries' soil where the United States initiates drone, missile, or air strikes between January 1 and December 31, 2026, as determined by UMA Optimistic Oracle by May 7, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-01-07T08:22:49Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nStrikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.\n\nStrikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nMissiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.\n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 38,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 60364.176066,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "geopolitics",
        "military",
        "us",
        "us military strikes"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0NXFDQ9L68",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5855JBL478",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x90d57090db476cc1e950ebc1e7f2bd7f6f07f9530913733f0da013c21f05e4e0",
      "question": "Will the US strike 3 countries in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nStrikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.\n\nStrikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the u",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "3: The total number of different countries' soil where the United States initiates drone, missile, or air strikes between January 1 and December 31, 2026, as determined by UMA Optimistic Oracle by May 7, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-02-28T13:12:07Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nStrikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.\n\nStrikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nMissiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.\n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 38,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 58863.070679,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "geopolitics",
        "military",
        "us",
        "us military strikes"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-F60FPBYMZ1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5855JBL478",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xea38a05e7a5d48a97552eff89fd446ac143ee4ded6f0296bbef7583218af3680",
      "question": "Will the US strike 5 countries in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nStrikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.\n\nStrikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the u",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "5: The total number of different countries' soil where the United States initiates drone, missile, or air strikes between January 1 and December 31, 2026, as determined by UMA Optimistic Oracle by May 7, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-03-19T00:47:03Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nStrikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.\n\nStrikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nMissiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.\n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 38,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": null,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 5,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "geopolitics",
        "military",
        "us",
        "us military strikes"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-T3SDT1X8L4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5855JBL478",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xea04718a275364e2b7d11e29e10a4f74b24ceb647602cce99ae2b4500f3d245c",
      "question": "Will the US strike 7 countries in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nStrikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.\n\nStrikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the u",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "The total number of different countries' soil where the United States initiates drone, missile, or air strikes between January 1 and December 31, 2026, as determined by UMA Optimistic Oracle by May 7, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-05-16T10:52:15Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nStrikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.\n\nStrikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nMissiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.\n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
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        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 38,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 61973.296819,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 7,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "geopolitics",
        "military",
        "us",
        "us military strikes"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-7M9VKP41C5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5855JBL478",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x5759fb62768738cda38232974fa399fd8bfbbe6c04d891a2c4cdb71731f8f692",
      "question": "Will the US strike 9 countries in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nStrikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.\n\nStrikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the u",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "9: The total number of different countries' soil where the United States initiates drone, missile, or air strikes between January 1 and December 31, 2026, as determined by UMA Optimistic Oracle by May 7, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nStrikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.\n\nStrikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nMissiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.\n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 38,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.301,
      "implied_probability": 0.301,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 35867.58341499999,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 9,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "geopolitics",
        "military",
        "us",
        "us military strikes"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-6FYV7JP705",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5855JBL478",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x4fa0dfa81109ade4f993b63f5ea4c9ee5e01ff546b7ddc9708d441ca691eb39a",
      "question": "Will the US strike 11 countries in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nStrikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.\n\nStrikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the u",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "11: The total number of different countries' soil where the United States initiates drone, missile, or air strikes between January 1 and December 31, 2026, as determined by UMA Optimistic Oracle by May 7, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
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        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "implied_probability": 0.08,
      "volume_24h_usd": 76.413,
      "volume_total_usd": 24919.686275999993,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
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      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nStrikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.\n\nStrikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nMissiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.\n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
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      "implied_probability": 0.013,
      "volume_24h_usd": 20,
      "volume_total_usd": 97076.92026099992,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
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      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "us",
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      "question": "Will the US strike 15 or more countries in 2026?",
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      "volume_total_usd": 125229.20656600005,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
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      "resolved_at": "2026-05-16T10:52:15Z",
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      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
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      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-01-07T08:22:49Z",
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      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
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      "platform": "polymarket",
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      "resolved_at": "2026-01-03T15:12:03Z",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
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  "_provenance": {
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    "ref": "CM-EVT-5855JBL478",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}