{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-0TSMZBY6R6",
  "slug": "how-many-fed-rate-cuts-in-2026",
  "question": "Will there be Fed rate cuts in 2026?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "fed-rates",
    "economic-policy",
    "2026",
    "monetary-policy",
    "us-economy"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the total number of Federal Reserve rate cuts across all FOMC meetings and emergency actions through December 31, 2026. Polymarket structures this as a discrete count series, with each binary contract pricing a specific cut-count outcome from zero through twelve or more. The full probability distribution across legs implies an aggregate market view on cumulative easing magnitude in basis points. Resolution follows Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, referencing Federal Reserve Board of Governors' official FOMC determinations.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-WB166DQ8Y1",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.928,
    "implied_probability": 0.928,
    "as_of": "2026-09-07T08:00:41.128Z"
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-WB166DQ8Y1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-0TSMZBY6R6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xd4e77ba6f29fc093509d24f508631abd445ecf506bbdc9c4c80e60256a318527",
      "question": "Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).\n\nEmergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.\n\nFor example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).\n\nThis market will resolve early to \"No\" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cut",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "0 (0 bps): Federal Reserve Board of Governors' FOMC meeting decisions and emergency rate actions through December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET determine the total number of 25-basis-point cuts in 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).\n\nEmergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.\n\nFor example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).\n\nThis market will resolve early to \"No\" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.\n\nNote that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
        "sources": [
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        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.928,
      "implied_probability": 0.928,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-07T08:00:41.128Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 19795.545799,
      "volume_total_usd": 8140403.230111996,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 0,
      "question_id": "CMX-9E7724D647",
      "also_on": null,
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-0TSMZBY6R6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x5e082f0b57f47a29044aa35b4c5658393122e659d5feae521c06b57cdd7f905c",
      "question": "Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).\n\nEmergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.\n\nFor example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).\n\nThis market will resolve early to \"No\" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cut",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "1 (25 bps): Federal Reserve Board of Governors' FOMC meeting decisions and emergency rate actions through December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET determine the total number of 25-basis-point cuts in 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).\n\nEmergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.\n\nFor example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).\n\nThis market will resolve early to \"No\" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.\n\nNote that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.052,
      "implied_probability": 0.052,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-07T08:00:41.128Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 32084.751496,
      "volume_total_usd": 2917692.755466,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 1,
      "question_id": "CMX-9C6AE4F1B1",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-68JBDD65N5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-0TSMZBY6R6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xe0d9f508a249e0070db06eb7d1e1fb17eb23c963f6fb722c4c3f81e23240c1cd",
      "question": "Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).\n\nEmergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.\n\nFor example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).\n\nThis market will resolve early to \"No\" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cut",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "2 (50 bps): Federal Reserve Board of Governors' FOMC meeting decisions and emergency rate actions through December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET determine the total number of 25-basis-point cuts in 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).\n\nEmergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.\n\nFor example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).\n\nThis market will resolve early to \"No\" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.\n\nNote that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
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        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.017,
      "implied_probability": 0.017,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-07T08:00:41.128Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 19073.881048,
      "volume_total_usd": 3021557.2889120015,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 2,
      "question_id": "CMX-408C1889E3",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-0TSMZBY6R6",
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      "platform_market_id": "0x8d4966e84ae80f24b2e14643fdd45364e354229e11e2c17903b4b1763cfbe67c",
      "question": "Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).\n\nEmergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.\n\nFor example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).\n\nThis market will resolve early to \"No\" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cut",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "3 (75 bps): Federal Reserve Board of Governors' FOMC meeting decisions and emergency rate actions through December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET determine the total number of 25-basis-point cuts in 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).\n\nEmergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.\n\nFor example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).\n\nThis market will resolve early to \"No\" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.\n\nNote that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.",
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      "question_id": "CMX-ACAF5FA681",
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      "tags": [
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-S5VLSBD7J2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-0TSMZBY6R6",
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      "platform_market_id": "0xaece8d6062d3e3eb9845b32441a4ab06eb2ef332c0228bc6a36add450647c7c4",
      "question": "Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).\n\nEmergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.\n\nFor example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).\n\nThis market will resolve early to \"No\" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cut",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "4 (100 bps): Federal Reserve Board of Governors' FOMC meeting decisions and emergency rate actions through December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET determine the total number of 25-basis-point cuts in 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).\n\nEmergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.\n\nFor example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).\n\nThis market will resolve early to \"No\" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.\n\nNote that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.",
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        "score": 93,
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-07T08:00:41.128Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 10267.498999999998,
      "volume_total_usd": 2633177.9890300008,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
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      "question_id": "CMX-6CCE9B59AF",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "federal reserve funds rate",
        "monetary-policy",
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-0TSMZBY6R6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x7ee722a07e0f84405f1267bc1c84eb95bd6348454453abf445618e778af8fd18",
      "question": "Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).\n\nEmergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.\n\nFor example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).\n\nThis market will resolve early to \"No\" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cut",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "5 (125 bps): Federal Reserve Board of Governors' FOMC meeting decisions and emergency rate actions through December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET determine the total number of 25-basis-point cuts in 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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