{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-V2X544SD61",
  "slug": "how-many-gold-cards-will-trump-sell-in-2026",
  "question": "Will Trump sell any Gold Cards in 2026?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "trump",
    "merchandise",
    "geopolitics",
    "2026",
    "quantitative"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track Gold Card sales volume across 2026, defined as individuals purchasing the Trump administration's investment-for-residency program. Polymarket structures the event as nine mutually exclusive sales-volume tiers, from zero to over 100,000 units, collectively spanning the full distribution. All nine markets resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against program purchase data through December 31, 2026. The resolve_at timestamp of April 24, 2026 suggests early settlement is possible if outcome is determinable before year-end.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-ZXT4FFNJ65",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.018,
    "implied_probability": 0.018
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-6ZCHGR7VG6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-V2X544SD61",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xac0e8cc2c1194bd79bfee4d944134a22a470dabf9a44973078931586ec2b4713",
      "question": "Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2026?",
      "description": "Donald Trump has announced a “Gold Card” plan to offer a pathway citizenship to citizenship in exchange for a $5m payment.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the number of individuals who purchase a “Gold Card” between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. \n\nAny individual participating in a new program created after February 26, 2025, by the Trump Administration which is either referred to as a Gold Card, or involves a new pathway to U.S. citizenship, work permits, or any other form of legal residency status in exchange for payments or investment will qualify. \n\nIf the reported va",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "0: The number of individuals purchasing the named investment-for-residency program between January 1 and December 31, 2026, as reported by Trump Administration officials or authorized program administrators, determines resolution by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-04-24T19:47:36Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "Donald Trump has announced a “Gold Card” plan to offer a pathway citizenship to citizenship in exchange for a $5m payment.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the number of individuals who purchase a “Gold Card” between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. \n\nAny individual participating in a new program created after February 26, 2025, by the Trump Administration which is either referred to as a Gold Card, or involves a new pathway to U.S. citizenship, work permits, or any other form of legal residency status in exchange for payments or investment will qualify. \n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nThe resolution source will be official information from the Trump Administration. If the Trump Administration does not publish the number of individuals who receive Gold Cards by December 31, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from the Trump Administration",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Trump Administration",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 44,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 44426.656441999985,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 0,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "gold cards",
        "merchandise",
        "trump",
        "trump gold cards"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PCX9BMC098",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-V2X544SD61",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x326df6a10a6cdd74bdc1ef77906037e90b1f1d6dd1fdcbf6580aea62de094a96",
      "question": "Will Trump sell 1-100 Gold Cards in 2026?",
      "description": "Donald Trump has announced a “Gold Card” plan to offer a pathway citizenship to citizenship in exchange for a $5m payment.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the number of individuals who purchase a “Gold Card” between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. \n\nAny individual participating in a new program created after February 26, 2025, by the Trump Administration which is either referred to as a Gold Card, or involves a new pathway to U.S. citizenship, work permits, or any other form of legal residency status in exchange for payments or investment will qualify. \n\nIf the reported va",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "1-100: The number of individuals purchasing the named investment-for-residency program between January 1 and December 31, 2026, as reported by Trump Administration officials or authorized program administrators, determines resolution by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "Donald Trump has announced a “Gold Card” plan to offer a pathway citizenship to citizenship in exchange for a $5m payment.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the number of individuals who purchase a “Gold Card” between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. \n\nAny individual participating in a new program created after February 26, 2025, by the Trump Administration which is either referred to as a Gold Card, or involves a new pathway to U.S. citizenship, work permits, or any other form of legal residency status in exchange for payments or investment will qualify. \n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nThe resolution source will be official information from the Trump Administration. If the Trump Administration does not publish the number of individuals who receive Gold Cards by December 31, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from the Trump Administration",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Trump Administration",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 44,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.656,
      "implied_probability": 0.656,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 18003.27600299999,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 1,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "gold cards",
        "merchandise",
        "trump",
        "trump gold cards"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-L53BKH2TD7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-V2X544SD61",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x960324c7d2db73740836bbd97eec770fcb9b5372e5b46d98b2999fdbbd017f7a",
      "question": "Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2026?",
      "description": "Donald Trump has announced a “Gold Card” plan to offer a pathway citizenship to citizenship in exchange for a $5m payment.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the number of individuals who purchase a “Gold Card” between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. \n\nAny individual participating in a new program created after February 26, 2025, by the Trump Administration which is either referred to as a Gold Card, or involves a new pathway to U.S. citizenship, work permits, or any other form of legal residency status in exchange for payments or investment will qualify. \n\nIf the reported va",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "101-1k: The number of individuals purchasing the named investment-for-residency program between January 1 and December 31, 2026, as reported by Trump Administration officials or authorized program administrators, determines resolution by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "Donald Trump has announced a “Gold Card” plan to offer a pathway citizenship to citizenship in exchange for a $5m payment.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the number of individuals who purchase a “Gold Card” between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. \n\nAny individual participating in a new program created after February 26, 2025, by the Trump Administration which is either referred to as a Gold Card, or involves a new pathway to U.S. citizenship, work permits, or any other form of legal residency status in exchange for payments or investment will qualify. \n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nThe resolution source will be official information from the Trump Administration. If the Trump Administration does not publish the number of individuals who receive Gold Cards by December 31, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from the Trump Administration",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Trump Administration",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 44,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.037,
      "implied_probability": 0.037,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 41180.66535199999,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 101,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "gold cards",
        "merchandise",
        "trump",
        "trump gold cards"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-X0269332N3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-V2X544SD61",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xab77a311c7c175ff91707a06dcd358db7a7d7f4258fb7756b05b4f44d175914f",
      "question": "Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2026?",
      "description": "Donald Trump has announced a “Gold Card” plan to offer a pathway citizenship to citizenship in exchange for a $5m payment.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the number of individuals who purchase a “Gold Card” between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. \n\nAny individual participating in a new program created after February 26, 2025, by the Trump Administration which is either referred to as a Gold Card, or involves a new pathway to U.S. citizenship, work permits, or any other form of legal residency status in exchange for payments or investment will qualify. \n\nIf the reported va",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "1k-2.5k: The number of individuals purchasing the named investment-for-residency program between January 1 and December 31, 2026, as reported by Trump Administration officials or authorized program administrators, determines resolution by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "Donald Trump has announced a “Gold Card” plan to offer a pathway citizenship to citizenship in exchange for a $5m payment.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the number of individuals who purchase a “Gold Card” between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. \n\nAny individual participating in a new program created after February 26, 2025, by the Trump Administration which is either referred to as a Gold Card, or involves a new pathway to U.S. citizenship, work permits, or any other form of legal residency status in exchange for payments or investment will qualify. \n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nThe resolution source will be official information from the Trump Administration. If the Trump Administration does not publish the number of individuals who receive Gold Cards by December 31, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from the Trump Administration",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Trump Administration",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 44,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.145,
      "implied_probability": 0.145,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 10941.099143999998,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 1000,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "gold cards",
        "merchandise",
        "trump",
        "trump gold cards"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-11K4TR8B09",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-V2X544SD61",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xfff9fd2422f8e3b878a2701c4eb1e9e182a35d9a71ec2d4233ccd2cac834f887",
      "question": "Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2026?",
      "description": "Donald Trump has announced a “Gold Card” plan to offer a pathway citizenship to citizenship in exchange for a $5m payment.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the number of individuals who purchase a “Gold Card” between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. \n\nAny individual participating in a new program created after February 26, 2025, by the Trump Administration which is either referred to as a Gold Card, or involves a new pathway to U.S. citizenship, work permits, or any other form of legal residency status in exchange for payments or investment will qualify. \n\nIf the reported va",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "2.5k-5k: The number of individuals purchasing the named investment-for-residency program between January 1 and December 31, 2026, as reported by Trump Administration officials or authorized program administrators, determines resolution by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "Donald Trump has announced a “Gold Card” plan to offer a pathway citizenship to citizenship in exchange for a $5m payment.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the number of individuals who purchase a “Gold Card” between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. \n\nAny individual participating in a new program created after February 26, 2025, by the Trump Administration which is either referred to as a Gold Card, or involves a new pathway to U.S. citizenship, work permits, or any other form of legal residency status in exchange for payments or investment will qualify. \n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nThe resolution source will be official information from the Trump Administration. If the Trump Administration does not publish the number of individuals who receive Gold Cards by December 31, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from the Trump Administration",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Trump Administration",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 44,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.017,
      "implied_probability": 0.017,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 10164.755185000004,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 2500,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "gold cards",
        "merchandise",
        "trump",
        "trump gold cards"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2TKM3GP6X5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-V2X544SD61",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xcfaa155abdb4c4447285c3fb08ce11273ad7b648cbc29b26bbc99a5d50a57688",
      "question": "Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2026?",
      "description": "Donald Trump has announced a “Gold Card” plan to offer a pathway citizenship to citizenship in exchange for a $5m payment.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the number of individuals who purchase a “Gold Card” between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. \n\nAny individual participating in a new program created after February 26, 2025, by the Trump Administration which is either referred to as a Gold Card, or involves a new pathway to U.S. citizenship, work permits, or any other form of legal residency status in exchange for payments or investment will qualify. \n\nIf the reported va",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "5k-10k: The number of individuals purchasing the named investment-for-residency program between January 1 and December 31, 2026, as reported by Trump Administration officials or authorized program administrators, determines resolution by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "Donald Trump has announced a “Gold Card” plan to offer a pathway citizenship to citizenship in exchange for a $5m payment.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the number of individuals who purchase a “Gold Card” between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. \n\nAny individual participating in a new program created after February 26, 2025, by the Trump Administration which is either referred to as a Gold Card, or involves a new pathway to U.S. citizenship, work permits, or any other form of legal residency status in exchange for payments or investment will qualify. \n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nThe resolution source will be official information from the Trump Administration. If the Trump Administration does not publish the number of individuals who receive Gold Cards by December 31, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from the Trump Administration",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Trump Administration",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 44,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 11821.986485,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 5000,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "gold cards",
        "merchandise",
        "trump",
        "trump gold cards"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-ZXT4FFNJ65",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-V2X544SD61",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xb51d73fb402680d320b8ae1a1450c17c90eb5c5061d7d406c1f86465276adb60",
      "question": "Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2026?",
      "description": "Donald Trump has announced a “Gold Card” plan to offer a pathway citizenship to citizenship in exchange for a $5m payment.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the number of individuals who purchase a “Gold Card” between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. \n\nAny individual participating in a new program created after February 26, 2025, by the Trump Administration which is either referred to as a Gold Card, or involves a new pathway to U.S. citizenship, work permits, or any other form of legal residency status in exchange for payments or investment will qualify. \n\nIf the reported va",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "10k-25k: The number of individuals purchasing the named investment-for-residency program between January 1 and December 31, 2026, as reported by Trump Administration officials or authorized program administrators, determines resolution by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "Donald Trump has announced a “Gold Card” plan to offer a pathway citizenship to citizenship in exchange for a $5m payment.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the number of individuals who purchase a “Gold Card” between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. \n\nAny individual participating in a new program created after February 26, 2025, by the Trump Administration which is either referred to as a Gold Card, or involves a new pathway to U.S. citizenship, work permits, or any other form of legal residency status in exchange for payments or investment will qualify. \n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nThe resolution source will be official information from the Trump Administration. If the Trump Administration does not publish the number of individuals who receive Gold Cards by December 31, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from the Trump Administration",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Trump Administration",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
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