{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-T4MXZ9HS26",
  "slug": "how-many-jobs-added-in-july-20260702221813246",
  "question": "Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in July?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "economy",
    "us-jobs",
    "labor-market",
    "monthly-employment",
    "july-2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the July 2026 nonfarm payroll change from the BLS Employment Situation Summary, released August 7, 2026. Polymarket structures the event as six mutually exclusive payroll brackets, from job losses through 200k-plus gains. Each bracket resolves via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against the BLS print. No cross-platform contrast applies here; all six markets share identical sourcing and mechanism across one platform.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-8T76V84VF3",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.29,
    "implied_probability": 0.29
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Z8H9648369",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-T4MXZ9HS26",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xc0a7f60bb7ff6ca82b82c9a212499776a3d68ae6aed674d6270bbcd9c104b2e4",
      "question": "Will the US lose jobs in July?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS \"Employment Situation Summary\" for July 2026, scheduled to be released on August 7, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nIf no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.\n\nThe BLS \"Employment Situation Summary\" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/news",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "<0: The BLS Employment Situation Summary for July 2026, released August 7, 2026, determines nonfarm payroll change bracketed as 50k-100k jobs or another range.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-07T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-07T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS \"Employment Situation Summary\" for July 2026, scheduled to be released on August 7, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nIf no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.\n\nThe BLS \"Employment Situation Summary\" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "bls.gov",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "BLS \"Employment Situation Summary\"",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "bls.gov",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.062,
      "implied_probability": 0.062,
      "volume_24h_usd": 175.270503,
      "volume_total_usd": 4319.800781999999,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 0,
      "question_id": "CMX-CB815E376F",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "employment",
        "jobs",
        "payroll",
        "us",
        "us nonfarm payroll"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-K6MDNLL044",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-T4MXZ9HS26",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x1599f50bef7836f26781cfb9e49ac4553b4ee6efb746cccf8d9493809fefcc6b",
      "question": "Will the US add between 0 and 50k jobs in July?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS \"Employment Situation Summary\" for July 2026, scheduled to be released on August 7, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nIf no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.\n\nThe BLS \"Employment Situation Summary\" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/news",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "0 – 50k: The BLS Employment Situation Summary for July 2026, released August 7, 2026, determines nonfarm payroll change bracketed as 50k-100k jobs or another range.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-07T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-07T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS \"Employment Situation Summary\" for July 2026, scheduled to be released on August 7, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nIf no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.\n\nThe BLS \"Employment Situation Summary\" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "bls.gov",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "BLS \"Employment Situation Summary\"",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "bls.gov",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.15,
      "implied_probability": 0.15,
      "volume_24h_usd": 234,
      "volume_total_usd": 5051.748807,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 50000,
      "question_id": "CMX-8FD54B35DC",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "employment",
        "jobs",
        "payroll",
        "us",
        "us nonfarm payroll"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-8T76V84VF3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-T4MXZ9HS26",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xb3284ff2fc65da5ad8020b0c1dd0190b0a66052b2df35f73ca057b200c71a012",
      "question": "Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in July?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS \"Employment Situation Summary\" for July 2026, scheduled to be released on August 7, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nIf no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.\n\nThe BLS \"Employment Situation Summary\" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/news",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "50k – 100k: The BLS Employment Situation Summary for July 2026, released August 7, 2026, determines nonfarm payroll change bracketed as 50k-100k jobs or another range.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-07T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-07T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS \"Employment Situation Summary\" for July 2026, scheduled to be released on August 7, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nIf no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.\n\nThe BLS \"Employment Situation Summary\" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "bls.gov",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "BLS \"Employment Situation Summary\"",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "bls.gov",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.29,
      "implied_probability": 0.29,
      "volume_24h_usd": 101.1,
      "volume_total_usd": 5419.535201999999,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 100000,
      "question_id": "CMX-833BB395FA",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "employment",
        "jobs",
        "payroll",
        "us",
        "us nonfarm payroll"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-L3RX36BB34",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-T4MXZ9HS26",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xa8c9a38793f3a8a503a5c604aa62ec9c2fb3ca81058a7e0108586526f0c2858d",
      "question": "Will the US add between 100k and 150k jobs in July?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS \"Employment Situation Summary\" for July 2026, scheduled to be released on August 7, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nIf no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.\n\nThe BLS \"Employment Situation Summary\" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/news",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "100k – 150k: The BLS Employment Situation Summary for July 2026, released August 7, 2026, determines nonfarm payroll change bracketed as 50k-100k jobs or another range.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-07T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-07T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS \"Employment Situation Summary\" for July 2026, scheduled to be released on August 7, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nIf no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.\n\nThe BLS \"Employment Situation Summary\" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "bls.gov",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "BLS \"Employment Situation Summary\"",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "bls.gov",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.36,
      "implied_probability": 0.36,
      "volume_24h_usd": 535.52762,
      "volume_total_usd": 5365.659218999998,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 150000,
      "question_id": "CMX-11F79F821A",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "employment",
        "jobs",
        "payroll",
        "us",
        "us nonfarm payroll"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-F3SH95XSP2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-T4MXZ9HS26",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x160c9d34b0870428163235402d1f55531de7b86c1d6ab8b1c8836c10c3f9a7f4",
      "question": "Will the US add between 150k and 200k jobs in July?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS \"Employment Situation Summary\" for July 2026, scheduled to be released on August 7, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nIf no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.\n\nThe BLS \"Employment Situation Summary\" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/news",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "150k – 200k: The BLS Employment Situation Summary for July 2026, released August 7, 2026, determines nonfarm payroll change bracketed as 50k-100k jobs or another range.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-07T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-07T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS \"Employment Situation Summary\" for July 2026, scheduled to be released on August 7, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nIf no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.\n\nThe BLS \"Employment Situation Summary\" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "bls.gov",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "BLS \"Employment Situation Summary\"",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "bls.gov",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.139,
      "implied_probability": 0.139,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 2892.7291110000006,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 200000,
      "question_id": "CMX-D9FA6714C2",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "employment",
        "jobs",
        "payroll",
        "us",
        "us nonfarm payroll"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-1MW0HHTRM4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-T4MXZ9HS26",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xbfba6ff38ee810718c31a142cae60f50229132565c1f8023bf88425740b096c5",
      "question": "Will the US add at least 200k jobs in July?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS \"Employment Situation Summary\" for July 2026, scheduled to be released on August 7, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nIf no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.\n\nThe BLS \"Employment Situation Summary\" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/news",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "200k+: The BLS Employment Situation Summary for July 2026, released August 7, 2026, determines nonfarm payroll change bracketed as 50k-100k jobs or another range.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-07T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-07T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS \"Employment Situation Summary\" for July 2026, scheduled to be released on August 7, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nIf no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.\n\nThe BLS \"Employment Situation Summary\" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "bls.gov",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "BLS \"Employment Situation Summary\"",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "bls.gov",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.08,
      "implied_probability": 0.08,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 497.144775,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 200000,
      "question_id": "CMX-7E784E3DFD",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "employment",
        "jobs",
        "payroll",
        "us",
        "us nonfarm payroll"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-T4MXZ9HS26",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}