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  "slug": "how-many-of-these-34-aipac-endorsees-will-lose-their-primaries-through-august-4-primaries-20260702145459068",
  "question": "How many of the 34 AIPAC endorsees will lose their primaries by August 4?",
  "category": "politics",
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  "tags": [
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  "editorial_notes": "These markets track how many of 34 AIPAC-endorsed candidates fail to advance from primaries through August 4, 2026. Polymarket structures this as six discrete count buckets: 0-1, 2-3, 4-5, 6-7, 8-9, and 10 or more losses. Each bucket is a binary contract; collectively they span the full outcome distribution. Resolution occurs via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against certified primary results.",
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  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
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      "question": "Will 4–5 of these AIPAC endorsees lose their primaries?",
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      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 415.64027,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 9,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2024",
        "aipac",
        "aipac endorsed candidates",
        "primary elections"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PWVBDXHVG9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-58JBW5P5T2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x0440fda2e1e08c5643b75ad311a51f5212f709f16229ddd66ee061373e922cb3",
      "question": "Will more than 10 of these AIPAC endorsees lose their primaries?",
      "description": "The American Israel Public Affairs Committee is a major, bipartisan American lobbying group that advocates for a strong U.S.-Israel relationship and has endorsed candidates in the upcoming US Congressional primaries.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the number of candidates, among those listed below, who do not win their primaries, inclusive of any runoff elections. For purposes of this market, a candidate will be considered to have won a primary if they finish in a position to advance to the general election, even if they are not the top vote-earner or if no primary election is held bec",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "10+: The number of listed AIPAC-endorsed candidates who fail to advance from their primaries, as of August 4, 2026, resolves via UMA Optimistic Oracle based on official primary election results and runoff outcomes.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-04T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-04T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The American Israel Public Affairs Committee is a major, bipartisan American lobbying group that advocates for a strong U.S.-Israel relationship and has endorsed candidates in the upcoming US Congressional primaries.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the number of candidates, among those listed below, who do not win their primaries, inclusive of any runoff elections. For purposes of this market, a candidate will be considered to have won a primary if they finish in a position to advance to the general election, even if they are not the top vote-earner or if no primary election is held because the candidate ran unopposed. \n\nThis market will only consider the 34 candidates listed below. No subsequent endorsement, unendorsement, or withdrawal from a race will be relevant. \n\nThe candidates and races are: \n\nGreg Stanton (Democratic, AZ-04), Abe Hamadeh (Republican, AZ-08), Juan Ciscomani (Republican, AZ-06), Ron Estes (Republican, KS-04), Tracey Mann (Republican, KS-01), Roger Marshall (Republican, KS-Sen), Derek Schmidt (Republican, KS-02), Tom Barrett (Republican, MI-07), Jack Bergman (Republican, MI-01), Bill Huizenga (Republican, MI-04), Lisa McClain (Republican, MI-09), John Moolenaar (Republican, MI-02), Hillary Scholten (Democratic, MI-03), Haley Stevens (Democratic, MI-Sen), Shri Thanedar (Democratic, MI-13), Tim Walberg (Republican, MI-05), Mark Alford (Republican, MO-04), Wesley Bell (Democratic, MO-01), Eric Burlison (Republican, MO-07), Sam Graves (Republican, MO-06), Robert Onder (Republican, MO-03), Jason Smith (Republican, MO-08), Ann Wagner (Republican, MO-02), Ben Cline (Republican, VA-06), Morgan Griffith (Republican, VA-09), Jen Kiggans (Republican, VA-02), John McGuire (Republican, VA-05), Rob Wittman (Republican, VA-01), Michael Baumgartner (Republican, WA-05), Suzan DelBene (Democratic, WA-01), Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (Democratic, WA-03), Kim Schrier (Democratic, WA-08), Adam Smith (Democratic, WA-09), Marilyn Strickland (Democratic, WA-10). \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying federal elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying federal elections",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 54,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 1602.537776,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 10,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2024",
        "aipac",
        "aipac endorsed candidates",
        "primary elections"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-58JBW5P5T2",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}