{
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    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
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  "event_id": "CM-EVT-QWRCCPDWP5",
  "slug": "how-many-republican-house-members-not-running-in-2026",
  "question": "Will the number of Republican House members who retire in 2026 be between 28 and 31 inclusive?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "elections",
    "congress",
    "us-house",
    "2026",
    "retirements"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the total count of Republican U.S. House members announcing retirement or running for different office in 2026. All seven markets are on Polymarket, structured as mutually exclusive discrete count ranges from fewer than 24 to 44 or more. Together they form a full probability distribution over retirement volume, resolving by August 31, 2026. Resolution follows Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against publicly announced departures.",
  "venues_covered": [
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-D16PCTS7K4",
  "current_primary_mark": {
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    "implied_probability": 0.013
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  "created_at": "2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-QWRCCPDWP5",
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      "platform_market_id": "0xeafc8d47725546039800fe78eb06c0af5d9f982134515b9250ea376b7c258afb",
      "question": "Will the number of Republican House members who retire in 2026 be fewer than 24?",
      "description": "The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:\n• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat\n• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat\n• They do ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "The total count of Republican U.S. House members who publicly announce retirement or choose to run for different office instead of reelection before the August 31, 2026 market close.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:\n• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat\n• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat\n• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)\n\nOnly members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.\n\nThis market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
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        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_illustrative",
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      },
      "rcg": {
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        "score": 56,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.053,
      "implied_probability": 0.053,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 6049.288868000001,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 24,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "republican",
        "republican house members",
        "retirement",
        "us politics"
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      "platform_market_id": "0xad1f282f187c4748fe6eb51153a39557c66856cd14408bc3d509d3b23c047d41",
      "question": "Will the number of Republican House members who retire in 2026 be between 28 and 31 inclusive?",
      "description": "The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:\n• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat\n• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat\n• They do ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "The total count of Republican U.S. House members who publicly announce retirement or choose to run for different office instead of reelection before the August 31, 2026 market close.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:\n• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat\n• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat\n• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)\n\nOnly members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.\n\nThis market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
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      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
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      "question": "Will the number of Republican House members who retire in 2026 be between 36 and 39 inclusive?",
      "description": "The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:\n• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat\n• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat\n• They do ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "The total count of Republican U.S. House members who publicly announce retirement or choose to run for different office instead of reelection before the August 31, 2026 market close.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:\n• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat\n• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat\n• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)\n\nOnly members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.\n\nThis market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_illustrative",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 56,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.569,
      "implied_probability": 0.569,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 3550.2594139999997,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 36,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "house",
        "republican",
        "republican house members",
        "retirement",
        "us politics"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PF6LTCJKJ3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-QWRCCPDWP5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x16478811d537afdfadaacef3bf1fc8b61ed86385968321b7d9250bdce2a49748",
      "question": "Will the number of Republican House members who retire in 2026 be 44 or more?",
      "description": "The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:\n• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat\n• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat\n• They do ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "The total count of Republican U.S. House members who publicly announce retirement or choose to run for different office instead of reelection before the August 31, 2026 market close.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:\n• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat\n• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat\n• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)\n\nOnly members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.\n\nThis market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_illustrative",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 56,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 3325.5499809999997,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 44,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "republican",
        "republican house members",
        "retirement",
        "us politics"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-QWRCCPDWP5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xe7d699841d03f695da20c8935f4cdf809057f3b27fa4f382e327ff731b8d75a7",
      "question": "Will the number of Republican House members who retire in 2026 be between 24 and 27 inclusive?",
      "description": "The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:\n• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat\n• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat\n• They do ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "The total count of Republican U.S. House members who publicly announce retirement or choose to run for different office instead of reelection before the August 31, 2026 market close.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:\n• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat\n• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat\n• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)\n\nOnly members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.\n\nThis market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
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        "sources": null,
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        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_illustrative",
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        "score": 56,
        "caps": [
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      "implied_probability": 0.079,
      "volume_24h_usd": 4.02,
      "volume_total_usd": 19791.29965399999,
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      "direction": "between",
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      "question_id": null,
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        "republican",
        "republican house members",
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      "question": "Will the number of Republican House members who retire in 2026 be between 32 and 35 inclusive?",
      "description": "The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:\n• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat\n• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat\n• They do ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "The total count of Republican U.S. House members who publicly announce retirement or choose to run for different office instead of reelection before the August 31, 2026 market close.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:\n• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat\n• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat\n• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)\n\nOnly members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.\n\nThis market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
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        "score": 56,
        "caps": [
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      "implied_probability": 0.048,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 5807.520855000002,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 32,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "republican",
        "republican house members",
        "retirement",
        "us politics"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-QWRCCPDWP5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x2649d46f6793c9847cc30659f7bcbec94578a23eda4c8cb86f31473173561986",
      "question": "Will the number of Republican House members who retire in 2026 be between 40 and 43 inclusive?",
      "description": "The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:\n• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat\n• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat\n• They do ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "The total count of Republican U.S. House members who publicly announce retirement or choose to run for different office instead of reelection before the August 31, 2026 market close.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:\n• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat\n• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat\n• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)\n\nOnly members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.\n\nThis market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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      "volume_total_usd": 2727.7254770000004,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 40,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "republican",
        "republican house members",
        "retirement",
        "us politics"
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}