{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-3DH81YZGV8",
  "slug": "how-many-republican-senators-not-running-in-2026",
  "question": "How many Republican Senators will not be running in 2026?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "congress",
    "elections",
    "politics",
    "senate-retirements",
    "republican-party",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the total count of Republican U.S. Senators not seeking reelection in 2026. All nine contracts are on Polymarket, structured as discrete strike tiers from below 5 through 12 or more. Together they form a full probability distribution over the retirement count. Resolution follows Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, referencing publicly reported Congressional announcements by August 31, 2026.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-F009KZ7WZ3",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.012,
    "implied_probability": 0.012
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KRBJQ2GPQ7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3DH81YZGV8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xd64664c1c0a3f0b434efc5e931c7ca0ffb0037a0ac07ab4df2902cd423396be8",
      "question": "Will the number of Republican Senate members who retire in 2026 be less than 5?",
      "description": "The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:\n• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat\n• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat\n• They do not seek their par",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "<5: The total count of Republican U.S. Senate members retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026, as determined by public announcements and candidate filings through August 31, 2026, resolves the market.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:\n• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat\n• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat\n• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)\n\nOnly members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.\n\nThis market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 53,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.014,
      "implied_probability": 0.014,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 22562.36311699999,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 5,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "republican",
        "republican senate retirements",
        "senate",
        "us politics"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-F009KZ7WZ3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3DH81YZGV8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x547885d940c44d9d45fe17fe57ffd2aad67457e3aca7b51e76b3d4d08def5d79",
      "question": "Will the number of Republican Senate members who retire in 2026 be exactly 6?",
      "description": "The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:\n• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat\n• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat\n• They do not seek their par",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "6: The total count of Republican U.S. Senate members retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026, as determined by public announcements and candidate filings through August 31, 2026, resolves the market.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:\n• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat\n• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat\n• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)\n\nOnly members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.\n\nThis market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 53,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.012,
      "implied_probability": 0.012,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 27128.902912999998,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 6,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "republican",
        "republican senate retirements",
        "senate",
        "us politics"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-YK6TL6S689",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3DH81YZGV8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x9c0cf8f9ff9d88060a4a26a2ba0fa628c1e2cf7116477646cd58f527b7417070",
      "question": "Will the number of Republican Senate members who retire in 2026 be exactly 7?",
      "description": "The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:\n• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat\n• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat\n• They do not seek their par",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "7: The total count of Republican U.S. Senate members retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026, as determined by public announcements and candidate filings through August 31, 2026, resolves the market.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:\n• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat\n• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat\n• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)\n\nOnly members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.\n\nThis market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 53,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.44,
      "implied_probability": 0.44,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 12628.737435000005,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 7,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "republican",
        "republican senate retirements",
        "senate",
        "us politics"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-ML9MVJV8P2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3DH81YZGV8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xd52d7ccf0e6bf86ed1b61c97f280491f88c440915626eab30612ec87c3a6fdae",
      "question": "Will the number of Republican Senate members who retire in 2026 be exactly 8?",
      "description": "The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:\n• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat\n• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat\n• They do not seek their par",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "8: The total count of Republican U.S. Senate members retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026, as determined by public announcements and candidate filings through August 31, 2026, resolves the market.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:\n• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat\n• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat\n• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)\n\nOnly members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.\n\nThis market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 53,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.015,
      "implied_probability": 0.015,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 4421.572693,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 8,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "republican",
        "republican senate retirements",
        "senate",
        "us politics"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-6D31HNP547",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3DH81YZGV8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xb9cc2ea682d46fb2f9fcc538d29df9db6f19d9f1d25f3252f5d931a72740b3e2",
      "question": "Will the number of Republican Senate members who retire in 2026 be exactly 9?",
      "description": "The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:\n• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat\n• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat\n• They do not seek their par",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "9: The total count of Republican U.S. Senate members retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026, as determined by public announcements and candidate filings through August 31, 2026, resolves the market.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:\n• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat\n• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat\n• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)\n\nOnly members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.\n\nThis market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 53,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.026,
      "implied_probability": 0.026,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2107.1338090000004,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 9,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "republican",
        "republican senate retirements",
        "senate",
        "us politics"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-P9NJ2C8NF0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3DH81YZGV8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xbeddcdb6bef68aee547f3670b7d80f55c31cd62785f23224ad472290ea49288b",
      "question": "Will the number of Republican Senate members who retire in 2026 be exactly 10?",
      "description": "The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:\n• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat\n• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat\n• They do not seek their par",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "10: The total count of Republican U.S. Senate members retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026, as determined by public announcements and candidate filings through August 31, 2026, resolves the market.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:\n• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat\n• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat\n• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)\n\nOnly members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.\n\nThis market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 53,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.021,
      "implied_probability": 0.021,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1622.7483839999995,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 10,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "republican",
        "republican senate retirements",
        "senate",
        "us politics"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-BMC78MH8D9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3DH81YZGV8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x48298d46f594a1802834ddec8835e293de0c7362fa409bfc107adfe5f5f8261e",
      "question": "Will the number of Republican Senate members who retire in 2026 be 12 or more?",
      "description": "The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:\n• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat\n• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat\n• They do not seek their par",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "12+: The total count of Republican U.S. Senate members retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026, as determined by public announcements and candidate filings through August 31, 2026, resolves the market.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:\n• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat\n• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat\n• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)\n\nOnly members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.\n\nThis market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 53,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.087,
      "implied_probability": 0.087,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 4921.447505,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 12,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "republican",
        "republican senate retirements",
        "senate",
        "us politics"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NG418M9XM2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3DH81YZGV8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xc01615f4514a43f5e6b1b896bf5ec856465da6129434b3afe2a313580d8bd855",
      "question": "Will the number of Republican Senate members who retire in 2026 be exactly 11?",
      "description": "The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:\n• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat\n• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat\n• They do not seek their par",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "11: The total count of Republican U.S. Senate members retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026, as determined by public announcements and candidate filings through August 31, 2026, resolves the market.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:\n• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat\n• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat\n• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)\n\nOnly members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.\n\nThis market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 53,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.062,
      "implied_probability": 0.062,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2746.412423999999,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 11,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "republican",
        "republican senate retirements",
        "senate",
        "us politics"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0G0D7GL9J0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3DH81YZGV8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x601703fdfb958825bda912a355add331e87ed7cfe070e7a829c5b70c07a8ff01",
      "question": "Will the number of Republican Senate members who retire in 2026 be exactly 5?",
      "description": "The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:\n• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat\n• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat\n• They do not seek their par",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "5: The total count of Republican U.S. Senate members retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026, as determined by public announcements and candidate filings through August 31, 2026, resolves the market.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:\n• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat\n• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat\n• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)\n\nOnly members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.\n\nThis market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 53,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.032,
      "implied_probability": 0.032,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 17361.19982,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 5,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "republican",
        "republican senate retirements",
        "senate",
        "us politics"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-3DH81YZGV8",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}