{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
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  "event_id": "CM-EVT-MCHQSDBHW5",
  "slug": "how-many-seats-will-united-russia-win-in-the-next-russian-legislative-election",
  "question": "How many seats will United Russia win in the next Russian legislative election?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "elections",
    "russia",
    "duma-2026",
    "seat-count",
    "legislative-outcomes"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track United Russia's seat count in the September 2026 Russian State Duma election. Seven Polymarket binaries span discrete seat tiers from below 280 to 355 or more, collectively covering the full outcome distribution. All seven resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against official Duma seat tallies. The tier structure lets traders express a view on seat-count range, not just a directional outcome.",
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-LZCXHL0V84",
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  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-MCHQSDBHW5",
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      "platform_market_id": "0x430751274480232547064a75eb29ceead00b95cf3e21709911a147cfada04e16",
      "question": "Will United Russia win fewer than 280 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?",
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      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "<280: The named party's seat count in the State Duma following the September 2026 Russian legislative election, per credible reporting consensus by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-20T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-20T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the number of seats held by United Russia in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election.\n\nIf results are not known definitively by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.\n\nThis market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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        "sources": [
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            "name": "Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "score": 26,
        "caps": [
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      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
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      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
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      "question": "Will United Russia win between 280 and 294 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?",
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      "underlying_reference": "280–294: The named party's seat count in the State Duma following the September 2026 Russian legislative election, per credible reporting consensus by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-20T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-20T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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        "rules_raw": "Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the number of seats held by United Russia in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election.\n\nIf results are not known definitively by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.\n\nThis market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.",
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      "question": "Will United Russia win between 295 and 309 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?",
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      "underlying_reference": "295–309: The named party's seat count in the State Duma following the September 2026 Russian legislative election, per credible reporting consensus by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-20T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-20T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the number of seats held by United Russia in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election.\n\nIf results are not known definitively by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.\n\nThis market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
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        "united russia",
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NTCBMS7PJ3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-MCHQSDBHW5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x8e41c5c2c887553ea7cce7f3644b50c62c8ab55238b50e939048f6d71aae6d4c",
      "question": "Will United Russia win between 310 and 324 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?",
      "description": "Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the number of seats held by United Russia in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election.\n\nIf results are not known definitively by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.\n\nThis market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this",
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      "underlying_reference": "310–324: The named party's seat count in the State Duma following the September 2026 Russian legislative election, per credible reporting consensus by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-20T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-20T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the number of seats held by United Russia in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election.\n\nIf results are not known definitively by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.\n\nThis market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.",
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        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-FS120B33M5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-MCHQSDBHW5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xe62ab836381dd820968f6b58ab546958aaa63de184c48bc6e0522d551807e1b1",
      "question": "Will United Russia win between 325 and 339 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?",
      "description": "Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the number of seats held by United Russia in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election.\n\nIf results are not known definitively by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.\n\nThis market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this",
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      "underlying_reference": "325–339: The named party's seat count in the State Duma following the September 2026 Russian legislative election, per credible reporting consensus by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-20T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-20T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the number of seats held by United Russia in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election.\n\nIf results are not known definitively by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.\n\nThis market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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        "source": null,
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        "united russia duma"
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-MCHQSDBHW5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x5ee38949a4ba69f716052e5139b03953e2ecf79e8130d583f92acd87e3c1ca68",
      "question": "Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?",
      "description": "Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the number of seats held by United Russia in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election.\n\nIf results are not known definitively by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.\n\nThis market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this",
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      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "340–354: The named party's seat count in the State Duma following the September 2026 Russian legislative election, per credible reporting consensus by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-20T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-20T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the number of seats held by United Russia in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election.\n\nIf results are not known definitively by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.\n\nThis market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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        "sources": [
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "score": 26,
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      "tags": [
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        "russia",
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        "united russia duma"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-X5G7HK3WP7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-MCHQSDBHW5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x2421eb7f6db120f7fa8a4bac72805d412a397b3d99bcb1202a05cf9b35f63176",
      "question": "Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election?",
      "description": "Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the number of seats held by United Russia in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election.\n\nIf results are not known definitively by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.\n\nThis market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "355+: The named party's seat count in the State Duma following the September 2026 Russian legislative election, per credible reporting consensus by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-20T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-20T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the number of seats held by United Russia in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election.\n\nIf results are not known definitively by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.\n\nThis market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "caps": [
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      "last_price": 0.14,
      "implied_probability": 0.14,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1.136362,
      "volume_total_usd": 36273.15279999997,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 355,
      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
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        "elections",
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        "united russia",
        "united russia duma"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-MCHQSDBHW5",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}