{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-3FRZB9Q2G6",
  "slug": "how-many-senate-and-house-seats-will-republicans-have-after-the-midterms-20260625152833634",
  "question": "Will Republicans gain control of the Senate and House in the midterm elections?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "elections",
    "2026-midterms",
    "us-congress",
    "seat-count",
    "republican-performance"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track Republican seat counts in both chambers following the November 2026 general elections. Polymarket structures the event as a joint probability grid, pairing discrete Senate tiers (53+, 50-52, 47-49, 46 or fewer) against discrete House ranges. Each cell is a mutually exclusive binary contract; together they span the full outcome space. Resolution relies on Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against certified seat counts after all November 2026 races conclude.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-VPVDHDBSX4",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.117,
    "implied_probability": 0.117
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-T3MM66X4C1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3FRZB9Q2G6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xc9eb66c41d39a6a3875b9eb7ba39e3529f007b256de370579307f8f565854fb7",
      "question": "Will Republicans hold 53+ Senate seats and 223+ House seats after the 2026 midterms?",
      "description": "The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in both the US House of Representatives and the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.\n\nThe number of House seats held by the Republican Party will be determined based upon the results of all US House of Representatives elections for voting members, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome,",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "≥53 and ≥223: The US House of Representatives and Senate seat counts held by the named party after all November 2026 general elections and applicable runoffs conclude, per official state election certifications by November 30, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in both the US House of Representatives and the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.\n\nThe number of House seats held by the Republican Party will be determined based upon the results of all US House of Representatives elections for voting members, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. \n\nThe number of Senate seats held by the Republican party based on both the composition of seats that are not up for election and the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.\n\nIf a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.\n\nA candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.\n\n",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Associated Press",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "NBC",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "official certification",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC",
        "source_mechanism": "quorum",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 82,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.052,
      "implied_probability": 0.052,
      "volume_24h_usd": 66.10368100000001,
      "volume_total_usd": 233.007006,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "congress",
        "midterms",
        "republican",
        "republican seats midterms",
        "us-politics"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-78GBV4WQM7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3FRZB9Q2G6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x36ed4680a4ce307b782205cfca5f6031c39c3a69811c5c1cd03b7d0f85c4153c",
      "question": "Will Republicans hold 53+ Senate seats and 208–222 House seats after the 2026 midterms?",
      "description": "The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in both the US House of Representatives and the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.\n\nThe number of House seats held by the Republican Party will be determined based upon the results of all US House of Representatives elections for voting members, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome,",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "≥53 and 208–222: The US House of Representatives and Senate seat counts held by the named party after all November 2026 general elections and applicable runoffs conclude, per official state election certifications by November 30, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in both the US House of Representatives and the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.\n\nThe number of House seats held by the Republican Party will be determined based upon the results of all US House of Representatives elections for voting members, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. \n\nThe number of Senate seats held by the Republican party based on both the composition of seats that are not up for election and the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.\n\nIf a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.\n\nA candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.\n\n",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Associated Press",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "NBC",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "official certification",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC",
        "source_mechanism": "quorum",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 82,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.037,
      "implied_probability": 0.037,
      "volume_24h_usd": 116.135649,
      "volume_total_usd": 1886.155835,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "congress",
        "midterms",
        "republican",
        "republican seats midterms",
        "us-politics"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-9ZB6ZHGPN5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3FRZB9Q2G6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xbb7b226d5c7b7915823add2c98019703b401a619165d3b348c8c3ea30318da9c",
      "question": "Will Republicans hold 53+ Senate seats and ≤207 House seats after the 2026 midterms?",
      "description": "The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in both the US House of Representatives and the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.\n\nThe number of House seats held by the Republican Party will be determined based upon the results of all US House of Representatives elections for voting members, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome,",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "≥53 and ≤207: The US House of Representatives and Senate seat counts held by the named party after all November 2026 general elections and applicable runoffs conclude, per official state election certifications by November 30, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in both the US House of Representatives and the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.\n\nThe number of House seats held by the Republican Party will be determined based upon the results of all US House of Representatives elections for voting members, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. \n\nThe number of Senate seats held by the Republican party based on both the composition of seats that are not up for election and the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.\n\nIf a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.\n\nA candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.\n\n",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Associated Press",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "NBC",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "official certification",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC",
        "source_mechanism": "quorum",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 82,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.022,
      "implied_probability": 0.022,
      "volume_24h_usd": 115.73648800000002,
      "volume_total_usd": 312.25627099999997,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "congress",
        "midterms",
        "republican",
        "republican seats midterms",
        "us-politics"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-CJ5MG4QC02",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3FRZB9Q2G6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xabec79e7d7f55592b05f2d1962ef4180ec431a29757221d1f944288b40738883",
      "question": "Will Republicans hold 50–52 Senate seats and 223+ House seats after the 2026 midterms?",
      "description": "The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in both the US House of Representatives and the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.\n\nThe number of House seats held by the Republican Party will be determined based upon the results of all US House of Representatives elections for voting members, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome,",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "50–52 and ≥223: The US House of Representatives and Senate seat counts held by the named party after all November 2026 general elections and applicable runoffs conclude, per official state election certifications by November 30, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in both the US House of Representatives and the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.\n\nThe number of House seats held by the Republican Party will be determined based upon the results of all US House of Representatives elections for voting members, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. \n\nThe number of Senate seats held by the Republican party based on both the composition of seats that are not up for election and the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.\n\nIf a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.\n\nA candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.\n\n",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Associated Press",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "NBC",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "official certification",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC",
        "source_mechanism": "quorum",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 82,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.042,
      "implied_probability": 0.042,
      "volume_24h_usd": 66.078179,
      "volume_total_usd": 224.607368,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "congress",
        "midterms",
        "republican",
        "republican seats midterms",
        "us-politics"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-VPVDHDBSX4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3FRZB9Q2G6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x4e2799a583dd5bb6c73ebf7615bb43c5872c4887bd5ccbcc536c725276a4cb4c",
      "question": "Will Republicans hold 50–52 Senate seats and 208–222 House seats after the 2026 midterms?",
      "description": "The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in both the US House of Representatives and the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.\n\nThe number of House seats held by the Republican Party will be determined based upon the results of all US House of Representatives elections for voting members, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome,",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "50–52 and 208–222: The US House of Representatives and Senate seat counts held by the named party after all November 2026 general elections and applicable runoffs conclude, per official state election certifications by November 30, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in both the US House of Representatives and the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.\n\nThe number of House seats held by the Republican Party will be determined based upon the results of all US House of Representatives elections for voting members, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. \n\nThe number of Senate seats held by the Republican party based on both the composition of seats that are not up for election and the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.\n\nIf a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.\n\nA candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.\n\n",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Associated Press",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "NBC",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "official certification",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC",
        "source_mechanism": "quorum",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 82,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.117,
      "implied_probability": 0.117,
      "volume_24h_usd": 356.776724,
      "volume_total_usd": 5291.193034999999,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "congress",
        "midterms",
        "republican",
        "republican seats midterms",
        "us-politics"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5FDR8TSNZ0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3FRZB9Q2G6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xfe816a4d6929a3e9c80e9c198db462b2c629b6b4e8867b1f2fa7cce3df844414",
      "question": "Will Republicans hold 50–52 Senate seats and 193–207 House seats after the 2026 midterms?",
      "description": "The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in both the US House of Representatives and the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.\n\nThe number of House seats held by the Republican Party will be determined based upon the results of all US House of Representatives elections for voting members, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome,",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "50–52 and 193–207: The US House of Representatives and Senate seat counts held by the named party after all November 2026 general elections and applicable runoffs conclude, per official state election certifications by November 30, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in both the US House of Representatives and the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.\n\nThe number of House seats held by the Republican Party will be determined based upon the results of all US House of Representatives elections for voting members, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. \n\nThe number of Senate seats held by the Republican party based on both the composition of seats that are not up for election and the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.\n\nIf a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.\n\nA candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.\n\n",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Associated Press",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "NBC",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "official certification",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC",
        "source_mechanism": "quorum",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 82,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.072,
      "implied_probability": 0.072,
      "volume_24h_usd": 335.174082,
      "volume_total_usd": 5233.940135,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "congress",
        "midterms",
        "republican",
        "republican seats midterms",
        "us-politics"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SR85T6K1L7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3FRZB9Q2G6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xf2c6b7f5658ceeddd86bc5d5abe0b4940814765aba78a00afe4a28b6f313c453",
      "question": "Will Republicans hold 50–52 Senate seats and ≤192 House seats after the 2026 midterms?",
      "description": "The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in both the US House of Representatives and the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.\n\nThe number of House seats held by the Republican Party will be determined based upon the results of all US House of Representatives elections for voting members, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome,",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "50–52 and ≤192: The US House of Representatives and Senate seat counts held by the named party after all November 2026 general elections and applicable runoffs conclude, per official state election certifications by November 30, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in both the US House of Representatives and the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.\n\nThe number of House seats held by the Republican Party will be determined based upon the results of all US House of Representatives elections for voting members, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. \n\nThe number of Senate seats held by the Republican party based on both the composition of seats that are not up for election and the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.\n\nIf a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.\n\nA candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.\n\n",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Associated Press",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "NBC",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "official certification",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC",
        "source_mechanism": "quorum",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 82,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.022,
      "implied_probability": 0.022,
      "volume_24h_usd": 66.119912,
      "volume_total_usd": 1504.2397700000001,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "congress",
        "midterms",
        "republican",
        "republican seats midterms",
        "us-politics"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-3LXGSYSTP6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3FRZB9Q2G6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x951ffdc4c2a43366b77f526f40695b14ddf7eaa4d81ebe569cb49cf5afa00f37",
      "question": "Will Republicans hold 47–49 Senate seats and 208+ House seats after the 2026 midterms?",
      "description": "The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in both the US House of Representatives and the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.\n\nThe number of House seats held by the Republican Party will be determined based upon the results of all US House of Representatives elections for voting members, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome,",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "47–49 and ≥208: The US House of Representatives and Senate seat counts held by the named party after all November 2026 general elections and applicable runoffs conclude, per official state election certifications by November 30, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in both the US House of Representatives and the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.\n\nThe number of House seats held by the Republican Party will be determined based upon the results of all US House of Representatives elections for voting members, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. \n\nThe number of Senate seats held by the Republican party based on both the composition of seats that are not up for election and the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.\n\nIf a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.\n\nA candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.\n\n",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Associated Press",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "NBC",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "official certification",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC",
        "source_mechanism": "quorum",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 82,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.123,
      "implied_probability": 0.123,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 807.3929310000001,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "congress",
        "midterms",
        "republican",
        "republican seats midterms",
        "us-politics"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-ZHPLVP5051",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3FRZB9Q2G6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xee84f81ac4694cf2fdbbdeb293438f97143a6b35b7178bcfbbb097c494aae1c4",
      "question": "Will Republicans hold 47–49 Senate seats and 193–207 House seats after the 2026 midterms?",
      "description": "The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in both the US House of Representatives and the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.\n\nThe number of House seats held by the Republican Party will be determined based upon the results of all US House of Representatives elections for voting members, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome,",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "47–49 and 193–207: The US House of Representatives and Senate seat counts held by the named party after all November 2026 general elections and applicable runoffs conclude, per official state election certifications by November 30, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in both the US House of Representatives and the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.\n\nThe number of House seats held by the Republican Party will be determined based upon the results of all US House of Representatives elections for voting members, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. \n\nThe number of Senate seats held by the Republican party based on both the composition of seats that are not up for election and the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.\n\nIf a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.\n\nA candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.\n\n",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Associated Press",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "NBC",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "official certification",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC",
        "source_mechanism": "quorum",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 82,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.154,
      "implied_probability": 0.154,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 289.81558799999993,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "congress",
        "midterms",
        "republican",
        "republican seats midterms",
        "us-politics"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-375K3GRJB8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3FRZB9Q2G6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xf0f29d2994ea37406d158d72e9dde22035eef4bba5ed2ece5be846cef6435948",
      "question": "Will Republicans hold 47–49 Senate seats and ≤192 House seats after the 2026 midterms?",
      "description": "The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in both the US House of Representatives and the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.\n\nThe number of House seats held by the Republican Party will be determined based upon the results of all US House of Representatives elections for voting members, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome,",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "47–49 and ≤192: The US House of Representatives and Senate seat counts held by the named party after all November 2026 general elections and applicable runoffs conclude, per official state election certifications by November 30, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in both the US House of Representatives and the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.\n\nThe number of House seats held by the Republican Party will be determined based upon the results of all US House of Representatives elections for voting members, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. \n\nThe number of Senate seats held by the Republican party based on both the composition of seats that are not up for election and the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.\n\nIf a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.\n\nA candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.\n\n",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Associated Press",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "NBC",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "official certification",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC",
        "source_mechanism": "quorum",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 82,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.108,
      "implied_probability": 0.108,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 1793.167333,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "congress",
        "midterms",
        "republican",
        "republican seats midterms",
        "us-politics"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-BNYGHHMJB8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3FRZB9Q2G6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x34107616d95603f3726616805a403db21a64492cf0e8df1175fa1a9dba38c3fc",
      "question": "Will Republicans hold ≤46 Senate seats and 208+ House seats after the 2026 midterms?",
      "description": "The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in both the US House of Representatives and the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.\n\nThe number of House seats held by the Republican Party will be determined based upon the results of all US House of Representatives elections for voting members, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome,",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "≤46 and ≥208: The US House of Representatives and Senate seat counts held by the named party after all November 2026 general elections and applicable runoffs conclude, per official state election certifications by November 30, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in both the US House of Representatives and the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.\n\nThe number of House seats held by the Republican Party will be determined based upon the results of all US House of Representatives elections for voting members, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. \n\nThe number of Senate seats held by the Republican party based on both the composition of seats that are not up for election and the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.\n\nIf a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.\n\nA candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.\n\n",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Associated Press",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "NBC",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "official certification",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC",
        "source_mechanism": "quorum",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 82,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.021,
      "implied_probability": 0.021,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 161.56624200000002,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "congress",
        "midterms",
        "republican",
        "republican seats midterms",
        "us-politics"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-482LPDB8C4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3FRZB9Q2G6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xde2a119ca20179db4387489814841767c1c60347f0b820f1387809494c617f2a",
      "question": "Will Republicans hold ≤46 Senate seats and 193–207 House seats after the 2026 midterms?",
      "description": "The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in both the US House of Representatives and the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.\n\nThe number of House seats held by the Republican Party will be determined based upon the results of all US House of Representatives elections for voting members, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome,",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "≤46 and 193–207: The US House of Representatives and Senate seat counts held by the named party after all November 2026 general elections and applicable runoffs conclude, per official state election certifications by November 30, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in both the US House of Representatives and the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.\n\nThe number of House seats held by the Republican Party will be determined based upon the results of all US House of Representatives elections for voting members, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. \n\nThe number of Senate seats held by the Republican party based on both the composition of seats that are not up for election and the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.\n\nIf a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.\n\nA candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.\n\n",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Associated Press",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "NBC",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "official certification",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC",
        "source_mechanism": "quorum",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 82,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.086,
      "implied_probability": 0.086,
      "volume_24h_usd": 43,
      "volume_total_usd": 440.281302,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "congress",
        "midterms",
        "republican",
        "republican seats midterms",
        "us-politics"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-3X3HLQ2J74",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3FRZB9Q2G6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x9c1af44b89d0f8bf813387d120bca949f8836d52764afc30dd6199a0d9379e2f",
      "question": "Will Republicans hold ≤46 Senate seats and ≤192 House seats after the 2026 midterms?",
      "description": "The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in both the US House of Representatives and the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.\n\nThe number of House seats held by the Republican Party will be determined based upon the results of all US House of Representatives elections for voting members, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome,",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "≤46 and ≤192: The US House of Representatives and Senate seat counts held by the named party after all November 2026 general elections and applicable runoffs conclude, per official state election certifications by November 30, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in both the US House of Representatives and the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.\n\nThe number of House seats held by the Republican Party will be determined based upon the results of all US House of Representatives elections for voting members, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. \n\nThe number of Senate seats held by the Republican party based on both the composition of seats that are not up for election and the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.\n\nIf a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.\n\nA candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.\n\n",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Associated Press",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "NBC",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "official certification",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC",
        "source_mechanism": "quorum",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 82,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.083,
      "implied_probability": 0.083,
      "volume_24h_usd": 139.39,
      "volume_total_usd": 1065.907327,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "congress",
        "midterms",
        "republican",
        "republican seats midterms",
        "us-politics"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-3FRZB9Q2G6",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}