{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-RBWHBPQSP3",
  "slug": "how-many-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-week-of-august-3-20260730202018839",
  "question": "How many ships will transit the Strait of Hormuz during the week of August 3?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "shipping-logistics",
    "strait-of-hormuz",
    "maritime-traffic",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track weekly vessel transit volume through the Strait of Hormuz for August 3-9, 2026. Five mutually exclusive Polymarket binary contracts span volume tiers from below 25 ships to 100 or more ships. Together they form a discrete probability distribution over transit counts. Resolution relies on IMF Portwatch total transit calls data, verified through Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle by August 23, 2026.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-K62HJWVVM4",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.08,
    "implied_probability": 0.08
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-T7FXT0M4T6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RBWHBPQSP3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xb415712ca83d6d7d32f858976c6b52578b563e7440a9308373f6c575ad28cb56",
      "question": "Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 3-August 9?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive.\n\nTransit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.\n\nIn case ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "<25: IMF Portwatch reports total transit calls for the Strait of Hormuz during August 3-9, 2026, resolving by August 23, 2026, or upon earliest available data publication.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-09T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-09T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive.\n\nTransit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.\n\nIn case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.\n\nOnly revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "portwatch.imf.org",
            "url": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "IMF Portwatch",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "IMF Portwatch",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 91,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.101,
      "implied_probability": 0.101,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1422.562371,
      "volume_total_usd": 2038.949013,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 25,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "hormuz",
        "maritime",
        "shipping",
        "strait hormuz ship"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-GB8FLLBQM2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RBWHBPQSP3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x0320a70291c1795ba0aa7b4fc8cdd68f258cb41990e45f26b48d3e49a0296cf8",
      "question": "Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 3-August 9?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive.\n\nTransit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.\n\nIn case ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "25-49: IMF Portwatch reports total transit calls for the Strait of Hormuz during August 3-9, 2026, resolving by August 23, 2026, or upon earliest available data publication.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-09T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-09T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive.\n\nTransit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.\n\nIn case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.\n\nOnly revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "portwatch.imf.org",
            "url": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "IMF Portwatch",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "IMF Portwatch",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 91,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.38,
      "implied_probability": 0.38,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1021.062937,
      "volume_total_usd": 1958.613792,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "hormuz",
        "maritime",
        "shipping",
        "strait hormuz ship"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Q4Y52BT9S0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RBWHBPQSP3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x47762913e4dc1636deaafbfd8361e71e894fbd0394a41f02f42c1eeb02a7f2ad",
      "question": "Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 3-August 9?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive.\n\nTransit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.\n\nIn case ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "50-74: IMF Portwatch reports total transit calls for the Strait of Hormuz during August 3-9, 2026, resolving by August 23, 2026, or upon earliest available data publication.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-09T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-09T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive.\n\nTransit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.\n\nIn case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.\n\nOnly revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "portwatch.imf.org",
            "url": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "IMF Portwatch",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "IMF Portwatch",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 91,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.37,
      "implied_probability": 0.37,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1000.335172,
      "volume_total_usd": 1857.7693640000002,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "hormuz",
        "maritime",
        "shipping",
        "strait hormuz ship"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-BV2SFLMHX5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RBWHBPQSP3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x0a6b3a95a725305393019f2fd6fc10fadc6e57aa1c9dbad5affdf77f156ad29e",
      "question": "Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 3-August 9?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive.\n\nTransit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.\n\nIn case ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "75-99: IMF Portwatch reports total transit calls for the Strait of Hormuz during August 3-9, 2026, resolving by August 23, 2026, or upon earliest available data publication.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-09T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-09T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive.\n\nTransit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.\n\nIn case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.\n\nOnly revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "portwatch.imf.org",
            "url": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "IMF Portwatch",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "IMF Portwatch",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 91,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.16,
      "implied_probability": 0.16,
      "volume_24h_usd": 755.678799,
      "volume_total_usd": 1527.3626440000003,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "hormuz",
        "maritime",
        "shipping",
        "strait hormuz ship"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-K62HJWVVM4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RBWHBPQSP3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xa1fb252ca6dc60e8b3a1dc17a357db4ca7c1f9e83e672f54e278f87b99ea2815",
      "question": "Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 3-August 9?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive.\n\nTransit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.\n\nIn case ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "100+: IMF Portwatch reports total transit calls for the Strait of Hormuz during August 3-9, 2026, resolving by August 23, 2026, or upon earliest available data publication.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-09T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-09T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive.\n\nTransit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.\n\nIn case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.\n\nOnly revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "portwatch.imf.org",
            "url": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "IMF Portwatch",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "IMF Portwatch",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 91,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.08,
      "implied_probability": 0.08,
      "volume_24h_usd": 2607.864274,
      "volume_total_usd": 3928.1515839999997,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 100,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "hormuz",
        "maritime",
        "shipping",
        "strait hormuz ship"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-RBWHBPQSP3",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}