{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-X3KK4VJFK1",
  "slug": "how-many-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-week-of-july-20-20260717154058215",
  "question": "Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "strait-of-hormuz",
    "shipping-traffic",
    "middle-east",
    "maritime-logistics",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track weekly vessel transit volume through the Strait of Hormuz for July 20-26, 2026. Five Polymarket binary contracts span discrete count tiers: below 50, 50-74, 75-99, 100-124, and 125 or more transits. Exactly one tier resolves YES; the structure prices a probability distribution over throughput levels. Resolution uses IMF Portwatch transit call data, verified via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-MW4HFMBVF6",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.37,
    "implied_probability": 0.37
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MW4HFMBVF6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-X3KK4VJFK1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x0aa65370e0cb5ddd1a7faf88f34b201c35491eff807ed8e3babfeaea1a4fe252",
      "question": "Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from July 20, 2026, through July 26, 2026, inclusive.\n\nTransit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.\n\nIn case of",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "<50: IMF Portwatch reports total transit calls for the Strait of Hormuz during July 20-26, 2026, inclusive, covering container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships by July 26, 2026 deadline.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-26T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-26T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from July 20, 2026, through July 26, 2026, inclusive.\n\nTransit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.\n\nIn case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.\n\nOnly revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "portwatch.imf.org",
            "url": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "IMF Portwatch",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "IMF Portwatch",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.37,
      "implied_probability": 0.37,
      "volume_24h_usd": 21735.746312999996,
      "volume_total_usd": 52239.22326200001,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 50,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "hormuz strait",
        "middle east",
        "shipping",
        "strait hormuz transits"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-6LXGGSRJC4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-X3KK4VJFK1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x09d7e2f0e3a0e3df610dd375c1681127e73fc37bfc758a93d040c953ddc32740",
      "question": "Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from July 20, 2026, through July 26, 2026, inclusive.\n\nTransit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.\n\nIn case of",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "50-74: IMF Portwatch reports total transit calls for the Strait of Hormuz during July 20-26, 2026, inclusive, covering container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships by July 26, 2026 deadline.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-26T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-26T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from July 20, 2026, through July 26, 2026, inclusive.\n\nTransit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.\n\nIn case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.\n\nOnly revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "portwatch.imf.org",
            "url": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "IMF Portwatch",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "IMF Portwatch",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.46,
      "implied_probability": 0.46,
      "volume_24h_usd": 807.9181290000001,
      "volume_total_usd": 3573.8746850000007,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "hormuz strait",
        "middle east",
        "shipping",
        "strait hormuz transits"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-G2P4J2DWJ4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-X3KK4VJFK1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xe68102010586315ceba75bb97697b3fa6398a59c5c1676859c5b19009de9ebfd",
      "question": "Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from July 20, 2026, through July 26, 2026, inclusive.\n\nTransit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.\n\nIn case of",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "75-99: IMF Portwatch reports total transit calls for the Strait of Hormuz during July 20-26, 2026, inclusive, covering container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships by July 26, 2026 deadline.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-26T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-26T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from July 20, 2026, through July 26, 2026, inclusive.\n\nTransit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.\n\nIn case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.\n\nOnly revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "portwatch.imf.org",
            "url": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "IMF Portwatch",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "IMF Portwatch",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.15,
      "implied_probability": 0.15,
      "volume_24h_usd": 570.187252,
      "volume_total_usd": 3028.9893669999997,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "hormuz strait",
        "middle east",
        "shipping",
        "strait hormuz transits"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-70GPL57TT2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-X3KK4VJFK1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x305babab31a93bd7c4eb9019d276740fbc4463f2500fb2235734c9d4ea6a6e71",
      "question": "Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from July 20, 2026, through July 26, 2026, inclusive.\n\nTransit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.\n\nIn case of",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "100-124: IMF Portwatch reports total transit calls for the Strait of Hormuz during July 20-26, 2026, inclusive, covering container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships by July 26, 2026 deadline.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-26T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-26T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from July 20, 2026, through July 26, 2026, inclusive.\n\nTransit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.\n\nIn case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.\n\nOnly revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "portwatch.imf.org",
            "url": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "IMF Portwatch",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "IMF Portwatch",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.024,
      "implied_probability": 0.024,
      "volume_24h_usd": 569.462887,
      "volume_total_usd": 3529.0117939999996,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "hormuz strait",
        "middle east",
        "shipping",
        "strait hormuz transits"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-3JGWM9RZY0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-X3KK4VJFK1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x804ee45539bb11e4bc8e14741a873151f5da024c3de1a71f29ebce578793e46d",
      "question": "Will 125 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from July 20, 2026, through July 26, 2026, inclusive.\n\nTransit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.\n\nIn case of",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "125+: IMF Portwatch reports total transit calls for the Strait of Hormuz during July 20-26, 2026, inclusive, covering container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships by July 26, 2026 deadline.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-26T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-26T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from July 20, 2026, through July 26, 2026, inclusive.\n\nTransit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.\n\nIn case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.\n\nOnly revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "portwatch.imf.org",
            "url": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "IMF Portwatch",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "IMF Portwatch",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.056,
      "implied_probability": 0.056,
      "volume_24h_usd": 599.8109220000001,
      "volume_total_usd": 3594.783817000001,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 125,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "hormuz strait",
        "middle east",
        "shipping",
        "strait hormuz transits"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-X3KK4VJFK1",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}