{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-JTWXKHJ868",
  "slug": "how-many-uk-parliamentary-by-elections-in-2026-20260708164636512",
  "question": "Will there be at least one UK parliamentary by-election in 2026?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "elections",
    "uk-parliament",
    "by-elections",
    "2026",
    "electoral-count"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the total count of House of Commons by-elections held in 2026. Polymarket structures the event as six discrete count tiers: a floor bucket of five or fewer, four exact-count strikes at six through nine, and a ceiling bucket of ten or more. All six markets resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against UK Parliament's official records at year-end 2026. Together the tiers form a complete probability distribution over annual by-election frequency.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-HC1YQB3X65",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.36,
    "implied_probability": 0.36
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-P5NZ3BHTR2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-JTWXKHJ868",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xee68f3c6823eb7d98f4d79e0aae90cb876e84c517709b44f8240480cdda26290",
      "question": "Will there be 5 or fewer UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the total number of UK parliamentary by-elections held in 2026.\n\nQualifying by-elections must be elections to the UK House of Commons for a vacant parliamentary seat, with polling day scheduled and held within the 2026 calendar year.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "≤5: UK Parliament's official records will confirm the total count of House of Commons by-elections held in 2026, resolving by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the total number of UK parliamentary by-elections held in 2026.\n\nQualifying by-elections must be elections to the UK House of Commons for a vacant parliamentary seat, with polling day scheduled and held within the 2026 calendar year.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.parliament.uk/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "parliament.uk",
            "url": "https://www.parliament.uk/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "UK Parliament",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.16,
      "implied_probability": 0.16,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 4661.338374999999,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 5,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "by-election",
        "parliament",
        "uk",
        "uk parliamentary elections"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-HC1YQB3X65",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-JTWXKHJ868",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x3e20908c1d9d1cb796851cbd0261a76b45f9838c4e30e124a1488adf9a119a65",
      "question": "Will there be exactly 6 UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the total number of UK parliamentary by-elections held in 2026.\n\nQualifying by-elections must be elections to the UK House of Commons for a vacant parliamentary seat, with polling day scheduled and held within the 2026 calendar year.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "6: UK Parliament's official records will confirm the total count of House of Commons by-elections held in 2026, resolving by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the total number of UK parliamentary by-elections held in 2026.\n\nQualifying by-elections must be elections to the UK House of Commons for a vacant parliamentary seat, with polling day scheduled and held within the 2026 calendar year.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.parliament.uk/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "parliament.uk",
            "url": "https://www.parliament.uk/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "UK Parliament",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.36,
      "implied_probability": 0.36,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 9371.557926,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 6,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "by-election",
        "parliament",
        "uk",
        "uk parliamentary elections"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-9ZYH2PK171",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-JTWXKHJ868",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x3554eebd269d120f6287dbb0e4542e292a196aafb4e00803813080ff84ba5f2f",
      "question": "Will there be exactly 7 UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the total number of UK parliamentary by-elections held in 2026.\n\nQualifying by-elections must be elections to the UK House of Commons for a vacant parliamentary seat, with polling day scheduled and held within the 2026 calendar year.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "7: UK Parliament's official records will confirm the total count of House of Commons by-elections held in 2026, resolving by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the total number of UK parliamentary by-elections held in 2026.\n\nQualifying by-elections must be elections to the UK House of Commons for a vacant parliamentary seat, with polling day scheduled and held within the 2026 calendar year.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.parliament.uk/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "parliament.uk",
            "url": "https://www.parliament.uk/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "UK Parliament",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.44,
      "implied_probability": 0.44,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 1765.8311329999997,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 7,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "by-election",
        "parliament",
        "uk",
        "uk parliamentary elections"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-3RJPL4WMF4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-JTWXKHJ868",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x8fb3f3df5dd2c4590f2d3fe18f2adf20fe6caaf7f38e894f5b1b3a7aa1ab4865",
      "question": "Will there be exactly 8 UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the total number of UK parliamentary by-elections held in 2026.\n\nQualifying by-elections must be elections to the UK House of Commons for a vacant parliamentary seat, with polling day scheduled and held within the 2026 calendar year.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "8: UK Parliament's official records will confirm the total count of House of Commons by-elections held in 2026, resolving by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the total number of UK parliamentary by-elections held in 2026.\n\nQualifying by-elections must be elections to the UK House of Commons for a vacant parliamentary seat, with polling day scheduled and held within the 2026 calendar year.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.parliament.uk/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "parliament.uk",
            "url": "https://www.parliament.uk/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "UK Parliament",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.12,
      "implied_probability": 0.12,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 2293.909305,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 8,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "by-election",
        "parliament",
        "uk",
        "uk parliamentary elections"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-HH1QCSFYR3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-JTWXKHJ868",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x4363424c091c13ab77af47c25d478a6d2d8c02421d99206b6938fa5e442430d0",
      "question": "Will there be exactly 9 UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the total number of UK parliamentary by-elections held in 2026.\n\nQualifying by-elections must be elections to the UK House of Commons for a vacant parliamentary seat, with polling day scheduled and held within the 2026 calendar year.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "9: UK Parliament's official records will confirm the total count of House of Commons by-elections held in 2026, resolving by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the total number of UK parliamentary by-elections held in 2026.\n\nQualifying by-elections must be elections to the UK House of Commons for a vacant parliamentary seat, with polling day scheduled and held within the 2026 calendar year.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.parliament.uk/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "parliament.uk",
            "url": "https://www.parliament.uk/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "UK Parliament",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.043,
      "implied_probability": 0.043,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 783.0683760000001,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 9,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "by-election",
        "parliament",
        "uk",
        "uk parliamentary elections"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PQ0S1XHWQ0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-JTWXKHJ868",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xc20acb478c24e3d6dcb83a1d98b016ce87a09fb8c9546e1475911fd7b998109b",
      "question": "Will there be at least 10 UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the total number of UK parliamentary by-elections held in 2026.\n\nQualifying by-elections must be elections to the UK House of Commons for a vacant parliamentary seat, with polling day scheduled and held within the 2026 calendar year.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "10+: UK Parliament's official records will confirm the total count of House of Commons by-elections held in 2026, resolving by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the total number of UK parliamentary by-elections held in 2026.\n\nQualifying by-elections must be elections to the UK House of Commons for a vacant parliamentary seat, with polling day scheduled and held within the 2026 calendar year.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.parliament.uk/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "parliament.uk",
            "url": "https://www.parliament.uk/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "UK Parliament",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.018,
      "implied_probability": 0.018,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 1002.737907,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 10,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "by-election",
        "parliament",
        "uk",
        "uk parliamentary elections"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-JTWXKHJ868",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}