{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-8CYKBXNQ27",
  "slug": "how-much-will-coinbase-token-sales-raise-in-2026",
  "question": "Coinbase token sales proceeds, 2026",
  "category": "crypto",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      200000000,
      400000000
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 200000000,
        "prob": 64
      },
      {
        "threshold": 400000000,
        "prob": 44
      },
      {
        "threshold": 600000000,
        "prob": 30
      },
      {
        "threshold": 800000000,
        "prob": 9
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1000000000,
        "prob": 7
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "crypto",
    "token-sales",
    "coinbase",
    "fundraising",
    "2027-resolution",
    "quantitative"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track aggregate token sale fundraising through Coinbase's platform in 2026. Five binary strikes ($200M, $400M, $600M, $800M, $1B) form an implicit probability ladder across the same underlying figure. Each resolves via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against Coinbase's official announcements and token sale pages. Because all five are Polymarket binaries, implied probabilities across strikes reveal market-consensus distribution of total raise outcomes.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-J6KMYV0SN7",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.62,
    "implied_probability": 0.62
  },
  "created_at": "2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-J6KMYV0SN7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-8CYKBXNQ27",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x50208733d2ccd03d19d6cd27f3a85de8a7fd67ae68fceb48178644ad62a6dbc2",
      "question": "Over $400M raised on Coinbase in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the total amount raised by Coinbase token sales in 2026 exceeds the number specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”\n\nThe resolution source will be official information published by Coinbase, the respective Coinbase token sale pages, or official communications from projects raising on Coinbase.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Coinbase's official announcements and token sale pages documenting total fundraising amounts through their platform during 2026.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the total amount raised by Coinbase token sales in 2026 exceeds the number specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”\n\nThe resolution source will be official information published by Coinbase, the respective Coinbase token sale pages, or official communications from projects raising on Coinbase.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_source_stated",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "none",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "none",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "none"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.62,
      "implied_probability": 0.62,
      "volume_24h_usd": 3.04,
      "volume_total_usd": 58290.15591499998,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 400000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-7E9B07863F",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "coinbase",
        "coinbase token sales",
        "fundraising",
        "token"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-QWNMBB3DC4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-8CYKBXNQ27",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xce620456053150d841e7b76aa9107377f9030747133df4cd0dd0cdbc642f92c0",
      "question": "Over $800M raised on Coinbase in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the total amount raised by Coinbase token sales in 2026 exceeds the number specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”\n\nThe resolution source will be official information published by Coinbase, the respective Coinbase token sale pages, or official communications from projects raising on Coinbase.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Coinbase's official announcements and token sale pages documenting total fundraising amounts through their platform during 2026.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the total amount raised by Coinbase token sales in 2026 exceeds the number specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”\n\nThe resolution source will be official information published by Coinbase, the respective Coinbase token sale pages, or official communications from projects raising on Coinbase.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_source_stated",
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        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "none",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "none"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.09,
      "implied_probability": 0.09,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 42728.225923,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 800000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-45A54D16A7",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "coinbase",
        "coinbase token sales",
        "fundraising",
        "token"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-G7N033V700",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-8CYKBXNQ27",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xfc76ba149eb344e53b06707b5a4b89ab9df6de1263a6f5ecfa7f1a6722526e89",
      "question": "Over $200M raised on Coinbase in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the total amount raised by Coinbase token sales in 2026 exceeds the number specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”\n\nThe resolution source will be official information published by Coinbase, the respective Coinbase token sale pages, or official communications from projects raising on Coinbase.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Coinbase's official announcements and token sale pages documenting total fundraising amounts through their platform during 2026.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the total amount raised by Coinbase token sales in 2026 exceeds the number specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”\n\nThe resolution source will be official information published by Coinbase, the respective Coinbase token sale pages, or official communications from projects raising on Coinbase.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_source_stated",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "none",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "none"
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.06,
      "implied_probability": 0.06,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 62496.437118000016,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 200000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-50912845D1",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "coinbase",
        "coinbase token sales",
        "fundraising",
        "token"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-T578JL93Q3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-8CYKBXNQ27",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x74bb6fe3ed4c49c44a0ca24dc3673c2de5dc979ec8fce1403db25c0d7077d651",
      "question": "Over $600M raised on Coinbase in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the total amount raised by Coinbase token sales in 2026 exceeds the number specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”\n\nThe resolution source will be official information published by Coinbase, the respective Coinbase token sale pages, or official communications from projects raising on Coinbase.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Coinbase's official announcements and token sale pages documenting total fundraising amounts through their platform during 2026.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the total amount raised by Coinbase token sales in 2026 exceeds the number specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”\n\nThe resolution source will be official information published by Coinbase, the respective Coinbase token sale pages, or official communications from projects raising on Coinbase.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_source_stated",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "none",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "none",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "none"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.3,
      "implied_probability": 0.3,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 63134.71138999999,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 600000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-35B696FF08",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "coinbase",
        "coinbase token sales",
        "fundraising",
        "token"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-YRLGP17ST2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-8CYKBXNQ27",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x1eaa3169b6a2ff38e91b07e7306edcec6982b6ceb616d737f244423902f5774f",
      "question": "Over $1B raised on Coinbase in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the total amount raised by Coinbase token sales in 2026 exceeds the number specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”\n\nThe resolution source will be official information published by Coinbase, the respective Coinbase token sale pages, or official communications from projects raising on Coinbase.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Coinbase's official announcements and token sale pages documenting total fundraising amounts through their platform during 2026.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the total amount raised by Coinbase token sales in 2026 exceeds the number specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”\n\nThe resolution source will be official information published by Coinbase, the respective Coinbase token sale pages, or official communications from projects raising on Coinbase.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
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        "source_status": "no_source_stated",
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        "source_commitment": "none",
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        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.08,
      "implied_probability": 0.08,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 103473.23774299993,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1000000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-094B866936",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "coinbase",
        "coinbase token sales",
        "fundraising",
        "token"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-8CYKBXNQ27",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}