{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-2M6LXFRJ38",
  "slug": "iaea-visits-isfahan-fordow-or-natanz-nuclear-site-by-july-31-20260624040209014",
  "question": "Will the IAEA visit Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site in 2026? (multi-deadline series)",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "iran-nuclear",
    "iaea-inspections",
    "middle-east",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether the IAEA conducts an on-site inspection at Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz before four sequential 2026 deadlines. All four markets are structured as binary outcome questions on the same underlying event, with deadlines of July 31, August 31, October 31, and December 31. Each resolves via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle. The staggered expiries create an implicit term structure, where later contracts embed the probability mass of earlier ones.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-ZJ4HBSMKF8",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.006,
    "implied_probability": 0.006
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-ZJ4HBSMKF8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2M6LXFRJ38",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x6e7afb2692233605869c7f3e791250eb28edfc1a859b7ce5ef752328fd215c07",
      "question": "IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by July 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if one or more International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials physically visit the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, or Natanz Nuclear Facility in Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nPickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility. \n\nIAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General.\n\nA qualifying visit must include physical pres",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "July 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if one or more International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials physically visit the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, or Natanz Nuclear Facility in Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nPickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility. \n\nIAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General.\n\nA qualifying visit must include physical presence within the recognized boundaries of one of the listed sites. Visits to other sites in Iran, or virtual inspections of the sites, will not qualify. \n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.006,
      "implied_probability": 0.006,
      "volume_24h_usd": 5195,
      "volume_total_usd": 183068.22119499993,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fordow",
        "iaea",
        "iaea iran nuclear",
        "inspection",
        "iran",
        "isfahan",
        "natanz",
        "nuclear"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-50L8R4MDW6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2M6LXFRJ38",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x6c783a56758368cb7ebdd383a368ab39728d3475d36a561626176657faaeb564",
      "question": "IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if one or more International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials physically visit the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, or Natanz Nuclear Facility in Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nPickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility. \n\nIAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General.\n\nA qualifying visit must include physical pres",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if one or more International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials physically visit the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, or Natanz Nuclear Facility in Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nPickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility. \n\nIAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General.\n\nA qualifying visit must include physical presence within the recognized boundaries of one of the listed sites. Visits to other sites in Iran, or virtual inspections of the sites, will not qualify. \n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.27,
      "implied_probability": 0.27,
      "volume_24h_usd": 2,
      "volume_total_usd": 3753.0827050000003,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fordow",
        "iaea",
        "iaea iran nuclear",
        "inspection",
        "iran",
        "isfahan",
        "natanz",
        "nuclear"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RFWZKDVGF5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2M6LXFRJ38",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x1db767f9a120d6155447976e3199556592951e72e63981173cb743d24121329c",
      "question": "IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by August 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if one or more International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials physically visit the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, or Natanz Nuclear Facility in Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nPickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility. \n\nIAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General.\n\nA qualifying visit must include physical pres",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "August 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-08-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if one or more International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials physically visit the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, or Natanz Nuclear Facility in Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nPickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility. \n\nIAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General.\n\nA qualifying visit must include physical presence within the recognized boundaries of one of the listed sites. Visits to other sites in Iran, or virtual inspections of the sites, will not qualify. \n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.043,
      "implied_probability": 0.043,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 13306.284582999999,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fordow",
        "iaea",
        "iaea iran nuclear",
        "inspection",
        "iran",
        "isfahan",
        "natanz",
        "nuclear"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NG1LD2LVG5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2M6LXFRJ38",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x73dd54214430d1d67ddf59ad22fdf62e00e71e273b229dc0040da504e5281b6f",
      "question": "IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if one or more International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials physically visit the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, or Natanz Nuclear Facility in Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nPickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility. \n\nIAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General.\n\nA qualifying visit must include physical pres",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "October 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-10-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if one or more International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials physically visit the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, or Natanz Nuclear Facility in Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nPickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility. \n\nIAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General.\n\nA qualifying visit must include physical presence within the recognized boundaries of one of the listed sites. Visits to other sites in Iran, or virtual inspections of the sites, will not qualify. \n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.16,
      "implied_probability": 0.16,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 1619.9442310000002,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fordow",
        "iaea",
        "iaea iran nuclear",
        "inspection",
        "iran",
        "isfahan",
        "natanz",
        "nuclear"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-2M6LXFRJ38",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}