{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-P8455L05H1",
  "slug": "india-annual-inflation-2026",
  "question": "Will India's annual inflation be below 4% in 2026?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "inflation",
    "economy",
    "india",
    "monetary-policy",
    "price-index"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track India's full-year 2026 CPI inflation rate, sourced from India's Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation. Seven mutually exclusive Polymarket bins span outcomes from below 0.75% to 4.50% and above, covering the full probability distribution across discrete rate-level tiers. All seven resolve in January 2027 via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against the December 2026 CPI release. Traders seeking the modal outcome must identify which single bin captures the year-end print.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-WRTVM2QZ15",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.056,
    "implied_probability": 0.056,
    "as_of": "2026-09-02T05:00:38.874Z"
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-W8H2SD6W90",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-P8455L05H1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x2cbd2902e437ad21646706800b0322b2ca321d3ce23ef833255aeb654f78aa19",
      "question": "Will India’s 2026 Annual Inflation be less than 0.75%?",
      "description": "This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).\n\nThis market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for Decemb",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "<0.75%: India's Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation Consumer Price Index report for December 2026, released by January 12, 2027, determines the 12-month year-on-year inflation rate.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-12T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-12T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).\n\nThis market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.\n\nThe relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases\n\nNote: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "mospi.gov.in",
            "url": "https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "mospi.gov.in",
            "url": "https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "MoSPI Consumer Price Index report",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "mospi.gov.in",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 91,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.012,
      "implied_probability": 0.012,
      "price_as_of": "2026-08-26T06:00:34.660Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2298.977242,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 0.75,
      "question_id": "CMX-94ADABA5B3",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "cpi",
        "india",
        "india annual inflation",
        "inflation"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-F1FMYGFKC0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-P8455L05H1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xa54df16a869289122b0fea45dc4cbe1df713f5b118fb567e559f311539363883",
      "question": "Will India’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 0.75% and 1.49%?",
      "description": "This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).\n\nThis market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for Decemb",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "0.75% to 1.49%: India's Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation Consumer Price Index report for December 2026, released by January 12, 2027, determines the 12-month year-on-year inflation rate.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-12T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-12T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).\n\nThis market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.\n\nThe relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases\n\nNote: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "mospi.gov.in",
            "url": "https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "mospi.gov.in",
            "url": "https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "MoSPI Consumer Price Index report",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "mospi.gov.in",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 91,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.004,
      "implied_probability": 0.004,
      "price_as_of": "2026-08-25T20:00:36.405Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1516.7929330000002,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-B3EB4C62FD",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "cpi",
        "india",
        "india annual inflation",
        "inflation"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-FR8B36Z7K7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-P8455L05H1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x5c4b3811fd26a0352c710dfd45f0855c44eac0f48490d61d1f0e47c8845a7e01",
      "question": "Will India’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 1.50% and 2.24%?",
      "description": "This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).\n\nThis market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for Decemb",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "1.50% to 2.24%: India's Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation Consumer Price Index report for December 2026, released by January 12, 2027, determines the 12-month year-on-year inflation rate.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-12T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-12T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).\n\nThis market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.\n\nThe relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases\n\nNote: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "mospi.gov.in",
            "url": "https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "mospi.gov.in",
            "url": "https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "MoSPI Consumer Price Index report",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "mospi.gov.in",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 91,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.002,
      "implied_probability": 0.002,
      "price_as_of": "2026-08-25T20:00:36.405Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1576.1180789999999,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-884E4CC52B",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "cpi",
        "india",
        "india annual inflation",
        "inflation"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-8NZ0VZPCQ8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-P8455L05H1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x8aee74b7b847e182a4e80090d76c278ada71bfd9144d8cc0868c51a339524738",
      "question": "Will India’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 2.25% and 2.99%?",
      "description": "This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).\n\nThis market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for Decemb",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "2.25% to 2.99%: India's Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation Consumer Price Index report for December 2026, released by January 12, 2027, determines the 12-month year-on-year inflation rate.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-12T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-12T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).\n\nThis market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.\n\nThe relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases\n\nNote: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "mospi.gov.in",
            "url": "https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "mospi.gov.in",
            "url": "https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "MoSPI Consumer Price Index report",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "mospi.gov.in",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 91,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.004,
      "implied_probability": 0.004,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-02T05:00:38.874Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 25442.887001,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-884E4CC52B",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "cpi",
        "india",
        "india annual inflation",
        "inflation"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-DD2WNK2PD5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-P8455L05H1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xebf35775288568c083fd517aceb4d6906f9fb7c63f42a924a1eff1013ffa0188",
      "question": "Will India’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 3.00% and 3.74%?",
      "description": "This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).\n\nThis market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for Decemb",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "3.00% to 3.74%: India's Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation Consumer Price Index report for December 2026, released by January 12, 2027, determines the 12-month year-on-year inflation rate.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-12T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-12T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).\n\nThis market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.\n\nThe relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases\n\nNote: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "mospi.gov.in",
            "url": "https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "mospi.gov.in",
            "url": "https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "MoSPI Consumer Price Index report",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "mospi.gov.in",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 91,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.02,
      "implied_probability": 0.02,
      "price_as_of": "2026-08-25T20:00:36.405Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2406.5989529999997,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-BA76E8792F",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "cpi",
        "india",
        "india annual inflation",
        "inflation"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-WRTVM2QZ15",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-P8455L05H1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x99f9b93f2a1722242f785513441a6b53329b974016cee38cc18ab7a6d9580734",
      "question": "Will India’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 3.75% and 4.49%?",
      "description": "This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).\n\nThis market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for Decemb",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "3.75% to 4.49%: India's Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation Consumer Price Index report for December 2026, released by January 12, 2027, determines the 12-month year-on-year inflation rate.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-12T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-12T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).\n\nThis market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.\n\nThe relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases\n\nNote: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases",
        "sources": [
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            "name": "mospi.gov.in",
            "url": "https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "name": "mospi.gov.in",
            "url": "https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "MoSPI Consumer Price Index report",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "name": "https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "mospi.gov.in",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 91,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.056,
      "implied_probability": 0.056,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-02T05:00:38.874Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 30328.96301699999,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-D16CBECA88",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "india",
        "india annual inflation",
        "inflation"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-V6SCB3HZY4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-P8455L05H1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x4c3eb9cc59964dbf8afc1b778c3178c5af15c5dd4686b1ea8da979a52d0a932b",
      "question": "Will India’s 2026 Annual Inflation be at least 4.50%?",
      "description": "This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).\n\nThis market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for Decemb",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "4.50%+: India's Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation Consumer Price Index report for December 2026, released by January 12, 2027, determines the 12-month year-on-year inflation rate.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-12T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-12T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).\n\nThis market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.\n\nThe relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases\n\nNote: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf",
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        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases",
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            "name": "mospi.gov.in",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "name": "Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "name": "MoSPI Consumer Price Index report",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "mospi.gov.in",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 91,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.89,
      "implied_probability": 0.89,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-07T09:00:42.355Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 19.97,
      "volume_total_usd": 20108.028036000007,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-5930A24D92",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "cpi",
        "india",
        "india annual inflation",
        "inflation"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
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  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-P8455L05H1",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}