{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-CZP41RXMV3",
  "slug": "insurrection-act-invoked-by",
  "question": "Will the Insurrection Act be invoked by the end of 2026?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "trump",
    "politics",
    "us-federal-government",
    "executive-action",
    "constitutional-law",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether the Insurrection Act is formally invoked, across five sequential binary deadlines in 2026. Each contract prices cumulative probability through its respective cutoff: January 31, March 31, April 30, June 30, and December 31. Later-dated contracts structurally imply higher probability than earlier ones. All five resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-9PJ6ZJ68C3",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.001,
    "implied_probability": 0.001
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-CZP41RXMV3",
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      "platform_market_id": "0xf2982d808c8b0c88ed7d1fd22fb55993b0d1a0f738d202b0a8c2d6805b7125d3",
      "question": "Insurrection Act invoked by June 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"invoke\" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 30: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"invoke\" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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      "volume_total_usd": 78993.71441299995,
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      "tags": [
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-CZP41RXMV3",
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      "platform_market_id": "0x7c62564713db2e9518ab636a7a8a1b9d4ee0df62a26979efcd20b52ce0fe8dd3",
      "question": "Insurrection Act invoked by March 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"invoke\" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "March 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-04-01T09:59:55Z",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"invoke\" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "tags": [
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      "question": "Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"invoke\" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"invoke\" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.2,
      "implied_probability": 0.2,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1231.25,
      "volume_total_usd": 151229.69025299983,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-9PJ6ZJ68C3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-CZP41RXMV3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x2a1c40ee32bf02632225708b6a0598a4c5bad7be2d9740739620616592cf2c3f",
      "question": "Insurrection Act invoked by January 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"invoke\" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "January 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-02-01T17:23:02Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"invoke\" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "tags": [
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-CZP41RXMV3",
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      "question": "Insurrection Act invoked by April 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"invoke\" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
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      "underlying_reference": "April 30: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-05-01T08:12:22Z",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"invoke\" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
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    "ref": "CM-EVT-CZP41RXMV3",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}