{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-4CKJ2D3T77",
  "slug": "iran-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-by-december-31",
  "question": "Will Iran agree to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "iran-nuclear",
    "uranium-enrichment",
    "geopolitics",
    "trump",
    "2026",
    "diplomacy-agreement"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether Iran publicly commits to ending all uranium enrichment by December 31, 2026. A single Polymarket binary resolves yes or no on that announcement. Resolution uses Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, which assesses public statements and official agreements. No corroborating platform prices this event at a rate level or margin, so no cross-platform structural contrast exists.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-VBT6TCF769",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.22,
    "implied_probability": 0.22
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-VBT6TCF769",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-4CKJ2D3T77",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xff68b32e6543ae8b44ccb520604b6ea224a1bac071a186fb65f6f40949a758df",
      "question": " Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.\n\nAny agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.\n\nAn agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.\n\nAn agreement by",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "UMA Optimistic Oracle resolves based on whether Iran publicly announces an agreement to end all uranium enrichment by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.\n\nAny agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.\n\nAn agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.\n\nAn agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. \n\nAgreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. ",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 26,
        "caps": [
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.22,
      "implied_probability": 0.22,
      "volume_24h_usd": 66.720363,
      "volume_total_usd": 1348921.6337299987,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "diplomacy",
        "iran",
        "iran uranium enrichment",
        "nuclear",
        "sanctions"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-4CKJ2D3T77",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}