{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-Z3K4DFFZY1",
  "slug": "iran-agrees-to-surrender-enriched-uranium-stockpile-by",
  "question": "Will Iran agree to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by 2026?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "iran-nuclear",
    "diplomatic-agreement",
    "2026",
    "middle-east",
    "nonproliferation"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Iran publicly agrees to surrender any portion of its enriched uranium stockpile by sequential deadlines in 2026. Each binary contract extends the horizon by one to several months, from April 30 through December 31. Later-dated contracts price cumulative probability across a longer negotiating window. All five resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, requiring a unilateral or multilateral public announcement of stockpile surrender.",
  "venues_covered": [
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-YBW91CSGS9",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.001,
    "implied_probability": 0.001
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  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-C49BL413S4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Z3K4DFFZY1",
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      "platform_market_id": "0x5d37825716832a4a54f89450932e89510f26cf4be59aeec3149d2c49e5fdf44d",
      "question": "Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.\n\nAn agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.\n\nTo qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or pla",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "April 30: The named country's public agreement to surrender any portion of its enriched uranium stockpile, announced unilaterally or within an accord, resolves by June 1, 2026, via UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-04-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-05-01T06:43:54Z",
      "status": "closed",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.\n\nAn agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.\n\nTo qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).\n\nAny agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.\n\nAn agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.\n\nAgreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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        "sources": [
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "score": 24,
        "caps": [
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          "discretionary_trigger_no_source",
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 3747157.236928999,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
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      "tags": [
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-4MZ4F8TZV9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Z3K4DFFZY1",
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      "question": "Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.\n\nAn agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.\n\nTo qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "December 31: The named country's public agreement to surrender any portion of its enriched uranium stockpile, announced unilaterally or within an accord, resolves by June 1, 2026, via UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.\n\nAn agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.\n\nTo qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).\n\nAny agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.\n\nAn agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.\n\nAgreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
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      "tags": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PHX8FYL732",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Z3K4DFFZY1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x6cb3ec9e0fb1c258898f648f8b33422f59ba3e8a71aee551449d7cb147bb8ead",
      "question": "Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.\n\nAn agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.\n\nTo qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or plac",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 30: The named country's public agreement to surrender any portion of its enriched uranium stockpile, announced unilaterally or within an accord, resolves by June 1, 2026, via UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.\n\nAn agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.\n\nTo qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).\n\nAny agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.\n\nAn agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.\n\nAgreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-YBW91CSGS9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Z3K4DFFZY1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xd39905267d79b715f078279ef41f311b791c6e2c7361fea38011492b632212ef",
      "question": "Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.\n\nAn agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.\n\nTo qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or place",
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      "close_at": "2026-05-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-01T06:38:50Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.\n\nAn agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.\n\nTo qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).\n\nAny agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.\n\nAn agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.\n\nAgreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
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      "question": "Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.\n\nAn agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.\n\nTo qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or plac",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PHX8FYL732",
      "platform": "polymarket",
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      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-C49BL413S4",
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      "resolved_at": "2026-05-01T06:43:54Z",
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      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
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    "ref": "CM-EVT-Z3K4DFFZY1",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}