{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-FP5Q8518G7",
  "slug": "iran-agrees-to-unrestricted-shipping-through-hormuz-by-june-30",
  "question": "Will Iran agree to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "iran",
    "strait-of-hormuz",
    "shipping-trade",
    "2026",
    "international-relations"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether Iran formally commits to unrestricted commercial navigation through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026. Only one binary outcome market exists, priced on Polymarket. No cross-platform structural contrast is available. Resolution falls to Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, which requires a verifiable public commitment from Iranian authorities.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-YF18B2KCP2",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0,
    "implied_probability": 0
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-YF18B2KCP2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FP5Q8518G7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x1723b7ee4118dee6ae6be8802cb7b6e239c37d199997b20a8191e32553a5bd68",
      "question": "Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iran publicly agrees to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIran allowing unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz refers to a public agreement by Iran that commercial vessels may transit the Strait of Hormuz without Iranian authorization/permission, payment of fees to Iran, or other Iran-imposed restrictions. A public agreement that all restrictions imposed on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz by Iran as part of the U",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "UMA Optimistic Oracle resolves based on whether Iran publicly agrees to allow unrestricted commercial navigation through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iran publicly agrees to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIran allowing unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz refers to a public agreement by Iran that commercial vessels may transit the Strait of Hormuz without Iranian authorization/permission, payment of fees to Iran, or other Iran-imposed restrictions. A public agreement that all restrictions imposed on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz by Iran as part of the US-Iran conflict which began on February 28, 2026, will be definitively lifted, without replacement by new restrictions, will qualify.\n\nA qualifying agreement must clearly indicate that Iran will not impose restrictions on commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz. General statements about the strait being “open”, de-escalation, security, increased transit in the Strait, or stability in the region, which do not clearly indicate that Iran will allow unrestricted commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz, will not qualify.\n\nAn official pledge by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.\n\nAny agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.\n\nAn agreement by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.\n\nThe primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from the government of Iran",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 30,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 49749.449696000025,
      "volume_total_usd": 173989.92856399997,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "geopolitics",
        "hormuz",
        "iran",
        "iran hormuz shipping",
        "middle east",
        "shipping"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-YF18B2KCP2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-FP5Q8518G7",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}