{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-N67Y28K4Z3",
  "slug": "iran-announces-withdrawal-from-mou-negotiations-byptptpt-20260622191732319",
  "question": "Will Iran announce a withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 2026?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "trump",
    "geopolitics",
    "iran-diplomacy",
    "mou-negotiations",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Iran formally announces withdrawal from memorandum-of-understanding negotiations by sequential binary deadlines spanning June 26 through August 15, 2026. All eight contracts are Polymarket binary markets resolved via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle; the deadlines form a term structure allowing traders to price withdrawal probability across discrete time horizons. Earlier-dated contracts imply tighter conditional probability of near-term breakdown; later dates embed cumulative risk. Resolution depends on a verifiable public announcement, with no independent adjudicating body named beyond the UMA protocol Polymarket uses for settlement.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-T5V8PL77H2",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.1,
    "implied_probability": 0.1
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-72N443LZG2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-N67Y28K4Z3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x89a794aa28381b14fa7233f95b29259a469af28c3b209c2b59f3802fbb93228a",
      "question": "Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 26?",
      "description": "On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a memorandum of understanding ending the immediate conflict and establishing a 60-day framework for negotiating a final agreement.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the Iranian government, or an authorized representative of the Iranian government, publicly and officially announces its termination of participation in the negotiation process toward the final agreement contemplated by the June 14, 2026 MOU between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\nA termination means a defini",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 26: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-06-26T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-27T06:53:49Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a memorandum of understanding ending the immediate conflict and establishing a 60-day framework for negotiating a final agreement.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the Iranian government, or an authorized representative of the Iranian government, publicly and officially announces its termination of participation in the negotiation process toward the final agreement contemplated by the June 14, 2026 MOU between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\nA termination means a definitive end to Iran's participation in the negotiation process as a whole. A temporary suspension, pause, or adjournment of negotiations, however open-ended or indefinite, does not constitute a termination unless it is itself clearly and unambiguously framed as a definitive end to participation. A conditional withdrawal, in which Iran announces it is ending participation subject to or contingent on any future event or condition, does not constitute termination.\nA qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the Iranian government's present termination of participation in the negotiation process, previously-unannounced prior termination of participation in the negotiation process, or definitive decision to terminate participation in the negotiation process.\n\n\nA qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify Iran's termination of participation in the negotiation process. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe such termination, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the MOU or the negotiation process by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of termination of the negotiation process is clearly and unambiguously communicated.\n\n\nA qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.\n\nThe following do not qualify:\n- Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;\n- Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the Iranian government; \n- Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the Iranian government will announce or terminate participation in negotiations; \n- Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; \n- Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional termination rather than announcing a present and decided position; \n- Walkouts, boycotts, or refusals to attend a specific meeting that do not clearly announce a termination of the overall negotiation process; and \n- Indirect communications through mediators that do not constitute a direct official announcement from Iran.\n\nOnce a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to \"Yes\" regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether Iran actually ceases participation in negotiations.\n\nResolution will be based on official information from the Iranian government, or the official representatives of the Iranian government.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_source_stated",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "none",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "none",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 56,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_none"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.005,
      "implied_probability": 0.005,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 83586.08221099999,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
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      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "iran",
        "iran mou negotiations",
        "mou"
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-GMH42SWXL1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-N67Y28K4Z3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x11395254d664f77f4a463fe28a3feb6dda06b1a396f63def47787bd650a00ce6",
      "question": "Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30?",
      "description": "On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a memorandum of understanding ending the immediate conflict and establishing a 60-day framework for negotiating a final agreement.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the Iranian government, or an authorized representative of the Iranian government, publicly and officially announces its termination of participation in the negotiation process toward the final agreement contemplated by the June 14, 2026 MOU between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\nA termination means a defini",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 30: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-01T09:55:35Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a memorandum of understanding ending the immediate conflict and establishing a 60-day framework for negotiating a final agreement.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the Iranian government, or an authorized representative of the Iranian government, publicly and officially announces its termination of participation in the negotiation process toward the final agreement contemplated by the June 14, 2026 MOU between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\nA termination means a definitive end to Iran's participation in the negotiation process as a whole. A temporary suspension, pause, or adjournment of negotiations, however open-ended or indefinite, does not constitute a termination unless it is itself clearly and unambiguously framed as a definitive end to participation. A conditional withdrawal, in which Iran announces it is ending participation subject to or contingent on any future event or condition, does not constitute termination.\nA qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the Iranian government's present termination of participation in the negotiation process, previously-unannounced prior termination of participation in the negotiation process, or definitive decision to terminate participation in the negotiation process.\n\n\nA qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify Iran's termination of participation in the negotiation process. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe such termination, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the MOU or the negotiation process by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of termination of the negotiation process is clearly and unambiguously communicated.\n\n\nA qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.\n\nThe following do not qualify:\n- Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;\n- Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the Iranian government; \n- Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the Iranian government will announce or terminate participation in negotiations; \n- Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; \n- Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional termination rather than announcing a present and decided position; \n- Walkouts, boycotts, or refusals to attend a specific meeting that do not clearly announce a termination of the overall negotiation process; and \n- Indirect communications through mediators that do not constitute a direct official announcement from Iran.\n\nOnce a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to \"Yes\" regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether Iran actually ceases participation in negotiations.\n\nResolution will be based on official information from the Iranian government, or the official representatives of the Iranian government.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_source_stated",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "none",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "none",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 56,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_none"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 525162.1287489998,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "diplomacy",
        "iran",
        "iran mou negotiations",
        "mou"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-T5V8PL77H2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-N67Y28K4Z3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x636f780f794635820e8cafe81924ef2dd67622fc01b6b2e5e64e9cc99593a005",
      "question": "Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?",
      "description": "On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a memorandum of understanding ending the immediate conflict and establishing a 60-day framework for negotiating a final agreement.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the Iranian government, or an authorized representative of the Iranian government, publicly and officially announces its termination of participation in the negotiation process toward the final agreement contemplated by the June 14, 2026 MOU between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA termination means a defin",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "July 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a memorandum of understanding ending the immediate conflict and establishing a 60-day framework for negotiating a final agreement.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the Iranian government, or an authorized representative of the Iranian government, publicly and officially announces its termination of participation in the negotiation process toward the final agreement contemplated by the June 14, 2026 MOU between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA termination means a definitive end to Iran's participation in the negotiation process as a whole. A temporary suspension, pause, or adjournment of negotiations, however open-ended or indefinite, does not constitute a termination unless it is itself clearly and unambiguously framed as a definitive end to participation. A conditional withdrawal, in which Iran announces it is ending participation subject to or contingent on any future event or condition, does not constitute termination.\n\nA qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the Iranian government's present termination of participation in the negotiation process, previously-unannounced prior termination of participation in the negotiation process, or definitive decision to terminate participation in the negotiation process.\n\nA qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify Iran's termination of participation in the negotiation process. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe such termination, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the MOU or the negotiation process by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of termination of the negotiation process is clearly and unambiguously communicated.\n\nA qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.\n\nThe following do not qualify:\n- Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;\n- Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the Iranian government; \n- Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the Iranian government will announce or terminate participation in negotiations; \n- Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; \n- Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional termination rather than announcing a present and decided position; \n- Walkouts, boycotts, or refusals to attend a specific meeting that do not clearly announce a termination of the overall negotiation process; and \n- Indirect communications through mediators that do not constitute a direct official announcement from Iran.\n\nOnce a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to \"Yes\" regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether Iran actually ceases participation in negotiations.\n\nResolution will be based on official information from the Iranian government, or the official representatives of the Iranian government.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_source_stated",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "none",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "none",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 56,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_none"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.1,
      "implied_probability": 0.1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 64410.918554,
      "volume_total_usd": 2815050.9021700015,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "diplomacy",
        "iran",
        "iran mou negotiations",
        "mou"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-K74HR0DR56",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-N67Y28K4Z3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x73cddb048a6dc727cbdf49a043cc8e6928c9fa533ca89a43aaf597a769ad9731",
      "question": "Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 7?",
      "description": "On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a memorandum of understanding ending the immediate conflict and establishing a 60-day framework for negotiating a final agreement.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the Iranian government, or an authorized representative of the Iranian government, publicly and officially announces its termination of participation in the negotiation process toward the final agreement contemplated by the June 14, 2026 MOU between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\nA termination means a defini",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "July 7: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-08T06:03:59Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a memorandum of understanding ending the immediate conflict and establishing a 60-day framework for negotiating a final agreement.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the Iranian government, or an authorized representative of the Iranian government, publicly and officially announces its termination of participation in the negotiation process toward the final agreement contemplated by the June 14, 2026 MOU between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\nA termination means a definitive end to Iran's participation in the negotiation process as a whole. A temporary suspension, pause, or adjournment of negotiations, however open-ended or indefinite, does not constitute a termination unless it is itself clearly and unambiguously framed as a definitive end to participation. A conditional withdrawal, in which Iran announces it is ending participation subject to or contingent on any future event or condition, does not constitute termination.\nA qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the Iranian government's present termination of participation in the negotiation process, previously-unannounced prior termination of participation in the negotiation process, or definitive decision to terminate participation in the negotiation process.\n\n\nA qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify Iran's termination of participation in the negotiation process. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe such termination, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the MOU or the negotiation process by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of termination of the negotiation process is clearly and unambiguously communicated.\n\n\nA qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.\n\nThe following do not qualify:\n- Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;\n- Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the Iranian government; \n- Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the Iranian government will announce or terminate participation in negotiations; \n- Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; \n- Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional termination rather than announcing a present and decided position; \n- Walkouts, boycotts, or refusals to attend a specific meeting that do not clearly announce a termination of the overall negotiation process; and \n- Indirect communications through mediators that do not constitute a direct official announcement from Iran.\n\nOnce a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to \"Yes\" regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether Iran actually ceases participation in negotiations.\n\nResolution will be based on official information from the Iranian government, or the official representatives of the Iranian government.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_source_stated",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "none",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "none",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 56,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_none"
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "tags": [
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        "iran",
        "iran mou negotiations",
        "mou"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-ZBBQ6P6L03",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-N67Y28K4Z3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xa488ab1e9bc72914b695c398c0027bd4edc1679d6ff949c1861fa33b2c9ae4d4",
      "question": "Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?",
      "description": "On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a memorandum of understanding ending the immediate conflict and establishing a 60-day framework for negotiating a final agreement.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the Iranian government, or an authorized representative of the Iranian government, publicly and officially announces its termination of participation in the negotiation process toward the final agreement contemplated by the June 14, 2026 MOU between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA termination means a defin",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "August 15: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-08-15T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-15T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a memorandum of understanding ending the immediate conflict and establishing a 60-day framework for negotiating a final agreement.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the Iranian government, or an authorized representative of the Iranian government, publicly and officially announces its termination of participation in the negotiation process toward the final agreement contemplated by the June 14, 2026 MOU between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA termination means a definitive end to Iran's participation in the negotiation process as a whole. A temporary suspension, pause, or adjournment of negotiations, however open-ended or indefinite, does not constitute a termination unless it is itself clearly and unambiguously framed as a definitive end to participation. A conditional withdrawal, in which Iran announces it is ending participation subject to or contingent on any future event or condition, does not constitute termination.\n\nA qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the Iranian government's present termination of participation in the negotiation process, previously-unannounced prior termination of participation in the negotiation process, or definitive decision to terminate participation in the negotiation process.\n\nA qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify Iran's termination of participation in the negotiation process. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe such termination, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the MOU or the negotiation process by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of termination of the negotiation process is clearly and unambiguously communicated.\n\nA qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.\n\nThe following do not qualify:\n- Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;\n- Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the Iranian government; \n- Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the Iranian government will announce or terminate participation in negotiations; \n- Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; \n- Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional termination rather than announcing a present and decided position; \n- Walkouts, boycotts, or refusals to attend a specific meeting that do not clearly announce a termination of the overall negotiation process; and \n- Indirect communications through mediators that do not constitute a direct official announcement from Iran.\n\nOnce a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to \"Yes\" regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether Iran actually ceases participation in negotiations.\n\nResolution will be based on official information from the Iranian government, or the official representatives of the Iranian government.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_source_stated",
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        "source_commitment": "none",
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      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 56,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_none"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.18,
      "implied_probability": 0.18,
      "volume_24h_usd": 7038.692337,
      "volume_total_usd": 332245.4164579999,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
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      "tags": [
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        "iran",
        "iran mou negotiations",
        "mou"
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-JXWD8ZKCR2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-N67Y28K4Z3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x8a094629b94ae6e4fd44ab3f539814d38325aba6306f40c1fd316b62244f8dd8",
      "question": "Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 10?",
      "description": "On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a memorandum of understanding ending the immediate conflict and establishing a 60-day framework for negotiating a final agreement.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the Iranian government, or an authorized representative of the Iranian government, publicly and officially announces its termination of participation in the negotiation process toward the final agreement contemplated by the June 14, 2026 MOU between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA termination means a defin",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "July 10: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-07-10T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-11T06:04:26Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
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        "rules_raw": "On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a memorandum of understanding ending the immediate conflict and establishing a 60-day framework for negotiating a final agreement.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the Iranian government, or an authorized representative of the Iranian government, publicly and officially announces its termination of participation in the negotiation process toward the final agreement contemplated by the June 14, 2026 MOU between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA termination means a definitive end to Iran's participation in the negotiation process as a whole. A temporary suspension, pause, or adjournment of negotiations, however open-ended or indefinite, does not constitute a termination unless it is itself clearly and unambiguously framed as a definitive end to participation. A conditional withdrawal, in which Iran announces it is ending participation subject to or contingent on any future event or condition, does not constitute termination.\n\nA qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the Iranian government's present termination of participation in the negotiation process, previously-unannounced prior termination of participation in the negotiation process, or definitive decision to terminate participation in the negotiation process.\n\nA qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify Iran's termination of participation in the negotiation process. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe such termination, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the MOU or the negotiation process by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of termination of the negotiation process is clearly and unambiguously communicated.\n\nA qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.\n\nThe following do not qualify:\n- Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;\n- Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the Iranian government; \n- Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the Iranian government will announce or terminate participation in negotiations; \n- Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; \n- Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional termination rather than announcing a present and decided position; \n- Walkouts, boycotts, or refusals to attend a specific meeting that do not clearly announce a termination of the overall negotiation process; and \n- Indirect communications through mediators that do not constitute a direct official announcement from Iran.\n\nOnce a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to \"Yes\" regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether Iran actually ceases participation in negotiations.\n\nResolution will be based on official information from the Iranian government, or the official representatives of the Iranian government.",
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        "rules_raw": "On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a memorandum of understanding ending the immediate conflict and establishing a 60-day framework for negotiating a final agreement.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the Iranian government, or an authorized representative of the Iranian government, publicly and officially announces its termination of participation in the negotiation process toward the final agreement contemplated by the June 14, 2026 MOU between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA termination means a definitive end to Iran's participation in the negotiation process as a whole. A temporary suspension, pause, or adjournment of negotiations, however open-ended or indefinite, does not constitute a termination unless it is itself clearly and unambiguously framed as a definitive end to participation. A conditional withdrawal, in which Iran announces it is ending participation subject to or contingent on any future event or condition, does not constitute termination.\n\nA qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the Iranian government's present termination of participation in the negotiation process, previously-unannounced prior termination of participation in the negotiation process, or definitive decision to terminate participation in the negotiation process.\n\nA qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify Iran's termination of participation in the negotiation process. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe such termination, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the MOU or the negotiation process by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of termination of the negotiation process is clearly and unambiguously communicated.\n\nA qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.\n\nThe following do not qualify:\n- Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;\n- Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the Iranian government; \n- Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the Iranian government will announce or terminate participation in negotiations; \n- Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; \n- Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional termination rather than announcing a present and decided position; \n- Walkouts, boycotts, or refusals to attend a specific meeting that do not clearly announce a termination of the overall negotiation process; and \n- Indirect communications through mediators that do not constitute a direct official announcement from Iran.\n\nOnce a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to \"Yes\" regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether Iran actually ceases participation in negotiations.\n\nResolution will be based on official information from the Iranian government, or the official representatives of the Iranian government.",
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}