{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-RD45F72C85",
  "slug": "iran-coup-attempt-by-june-30",
  "question": "Will there be a coup attempt in Iran by the end of 2026?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "trump",
    "iran",
    "coup-attempt",
    "2026",
    "political-instability"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "Both markets track whether a coup attempt occurs in Iran within separate 2026 timeframes. The June 30 contract is a near-term binary; the December 31 contract extends the window by six months. Both resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle. The shorter contract embeds a higher threshold for near-term political rupture in Tehran.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-NPDHZT7D79",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.001,
    "implied_probability": 0.001,
    "as_of": null
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-YLVMN8MVK2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RD45F72C85",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x13faa876e0bc41ff44bd250ed3745bd62d33763e727f2193d3dfb5e789008fce",
      "question": "Iran coup attempt by December 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nA coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.\n\nClaims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—su",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nA coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.\n\nClaims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a \"Yes\" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 10,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "discretionary_trigger_no_source",
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.15,
      "implied_probability": 0.15,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-07T08:00:41.128Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 452.017123,
      "volume_total_usd": 85205.285087,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "geopolitics",
        "iran",
        "iran coup attempt",
        "regime change"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NPDHZT7D79",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RD45F72C85",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x17c9dead8bed402d330e2aa5bcfb4d6f7764d3cc60d6508a03be003f4e88e64b",
      "question": "Iran coup attempt by June 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nA coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.\n\nClaims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such a",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 30: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-01T06:04:10Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nA coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.\n\nClaims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a \"Yes\" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 10,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "discretionary_trigger_no_source",
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 2041225.513104993,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "geopolitics",
        "iran",
        "iran coup attempt",
        "regime change"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NPDHZT7D79",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-01T06:04:10Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-RD45F72C85",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}