{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
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  "event_id": "CM-EVT-TYRP27H901",
  "slug": "iran-leadership-change-by",
  "question": "Will Iran's leadership change by 2026?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "geopolitics",
    "iran",
    "leadership-succession",
    "2026",
    "middle-east"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Iran's de facto leader ceases to hold power by successive calendar deadlines across 2026. Each contract is a binary outcome priced at a different expiry, creating an implied term structure of political transition probability. All six markets resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle. The March 31 market resolved at the April 1, 2026 timestamp; remaining contracts extend through December 31, 2026.",
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-NBQPLLXX05",
  "current_primary_mark": {
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    "implied_probability": 0.002
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  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-TYRP27H901",
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      "platform_market_id": "0xcc07920770fdaadcdc4dff75056e88140d0988c9cb1dbfb4a78eda51b2868027",
      "question": "Iran leadership change by March 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nMojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.\n\nAn official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution regardless of w",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "March 31: The UMA Optimistic Oracle resolves whether the named individual ceases to be de facto leader of Iran through removal, detention, or loss of position by May 1, 2026, 06:42 UTC, based on official announcements or credible reporting.",
      "close_at": "2026-03-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-04-01T08:25:09Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nMojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.\n\nAn official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "score": 10,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
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        "iran leadership change",
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        "politics"
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-ZKF6Q4ZNF5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-TYRP27H901",
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      "platform_market_id": "0x377e7fe65cf198a7fc4fdae3f2136b74729279267858daaf96718b23bc2a5607",
      "question": "Iran leadership change by December 31?",
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      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31: The UMA Optimistic Oracle resolves whether the named individual ceases to be de facto leader of Iran through removal, detention, or loss of position by May 1, 2026, 06:42 UTC, based on official announcements or credible reporting.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nMojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.\n\nAn official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
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      "question": "Iran leadership change by March 13?",
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      "underlying_reference": "March 13: The UMA Optimistic Oracle resolves whether the named individual ceases to be de facto leader of Iran through removal, detention, or loss of position by May 1, 2026, 06:42 UTC, based on official announcements or credible reporting.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-03-18T04:25:37Z",
      "status": "closed",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nMojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.\n\nAn official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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      "tags": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NBQPLLXX05",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-TYRP27H901",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xb412664463bbfe21be44b1963291205ab332afd4f7f6e0d027aec1ba7a9e6793",
      "question": "Iran leadership change by April 30?",
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      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
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      "close_at": "2026-04-30T00:00:00Z",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nMojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.\n\nAn official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-CV2VQWZ3B7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-TYRP27H901",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x2f6a547524c1d290f8a2bbff80be2b0e8ca1b3b716dd3a0e74bf8ddb3e3fd6b7",
      "question": "Iran leadership change by May 31?",
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      "close_at": "2026-05-31T00:00:00Z",
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PDBPLRLFX4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-TYRP27H901",
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      "platform_market_id": "0xb196a122933da9aff6cb8b0f3764d0dc5db1859f46c0481c711521eee8524291",
      "question": "Iran leadership change by June 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nMojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.\n\nAn official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution regardless of w",
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      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nMojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.\n\nAn official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PDBPLRLFX4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
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      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
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}