{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-TYRP27H901",
  "slug": "iran-leadership-change-by",
  "question": "Will Iran's leadership change by 2026?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "geopolitics",
    "iran",
    "leadership-succession",
    "middle-east",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Iran's de facto leader ceases to hold power by successive monthly deadlines through September 30, 2026. Each contract is a binary option on the same underlying event at a different expiry, creating a term structure of regime-change probability. All ten markets resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, which adjudicates whether the named individual has lost effective control. Earlier monthly strikes that have passed their deadlines are factually settled; remaining open strikes price incremental probability through the canonical September 30, 2026 close.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-NBQPLLXX05",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.002,
    "implied_probability": 0.002,
    "as_of": null
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-X9WCW6MP75",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-TYRP27H901",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x094772b3529f455e881a4483eaf1c24266384f55e97c23f24f638f5726ba9920",
      "question": "Iran leadership change by September 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nMojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.\n\nAn official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution regardless of w",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "September 30: The UMA Optimistic Oracle resolves whether the named individual ceases to be de facto leader of Iran through removal, detention, or loss of position by May 1, 2026, 06:42 UTC, based on official announcements or credible reporting.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nMojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.\n\nAn official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
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        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 10,
        "caps": [
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          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.033,
      "implied_probability": 0.033,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-07T09:00:42.355Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 4228.6997,
      "volume_total_usd": 1006674.6121429999,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "iran",
        "iran leadership",
        "leadership",
        "political"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-3H9RQDL697",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-TYRP27H901",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x0d3ad3afe0e01075d00e6869a09f1982742fba950b4cae8fff452b282b5a80fc",
      "question": "Iran leadership change by July 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nMojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.\n\nAn official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution regardless of w",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "July 31: The UMA Optimistic Oracle resolves whether the named individual ceases to be de facto leader of Iran through removal, detention, or loss of position by May 1, 2026, 06:42 UTC, based on official announcements or credible reporting.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-01T06:12:21Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nMojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.\n\nAn official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
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            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 10,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 1552292.7326360003,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
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      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
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        "iran leadership",
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-FYF67GHM84",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-TYRP27H901",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xe802435286a79c0086810443a824d596619a6f34f901c112f0b70e4e140d6165",
      "question": "Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nMojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.\n\nAn official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution regardless of w",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 30, 2027: The UMA Optimistic Oracle resolves whether the named individual ceases to be de facto leader of Iran through removal, detention, or loss of position by May 1, 2026, 06:42 UTC, based on official announcements or credible reporting.",
      "close_at": "2027-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nMojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.\n\nAn official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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            "url": null,
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 10,
        "caps": [
          "discretionary_trigger_no_source",
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.27,
      "implied_probability": 0.27,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-07T09:00:42.355Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 9147.753298,
      "volume_total_usd": 270023.97622500005,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "iran",
        "iran leadership",
        "leadership",
        "political"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KVLXZJV9R3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-TYRP27H901",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x43e12647a58ee0b20d2539d23764b0d561ea7be322acb8823f7bb126e67c115e",
      "question": "Iran leadership change by August 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nMojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.\n\nAn official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution regardless of w",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "August 31: The UMA Optimistic Oracle resolves whether the named individual ceases to be de facto leader of Iran through removal, detention, or loss of position by May 1, 2026, 06:42 UTC, based on official announcements or credible reporting.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nMojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.\n\nAn official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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        "sources": [
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 10,
        "caps": [
          "discretionary_trigger_no_source",
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.003,
      "implied_probability": 0.003,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-01T23:00:40.271Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1599414.1198490001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "iran",
        "iran leadership",
        "leadership",
        "political"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-FMB7VJVPS2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-TYRP27H901",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x352559d5f5bdcad9f6dabdf84af660639ca144aef053166c923033d2345d884a",
      "question": "Iran leadership change by March 13?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nMojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.\n\nAn official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution regardless of w",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "March 13: The UMA Optimistic Oracle resolves whether the named individual ceases to be de facto leader of Iran through removal, detention, or loss of position by May 1, 2026, 06:42 UTC, based on official announcements or credible reporting.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-03-18T04:25:37Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nMojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.\n\nAn official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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        "source": null,
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 10,
        "caps": [
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          "adversarial_ground_truth",
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
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      "volume_total_usd": null,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
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      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
        "iran",
        "iran leadership",
        "leadership",
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-T7RVXQ9695",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-TYRP27H901",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xcc07920770fdaadcdc4dff75056e88140d0988c9cb1dbfb4a78eda51b2868027",
      "question": "Iran leadership change by March 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nMojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.\n\nAn official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution regardless of w",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "March 31: The UMA Optimistic Oracle resolves whether the named individual ceases to be de facto leader of Iran through removal, detention, or loss of position by May 1, 2026, 06:42 UTC, based on official announcements or credible reporting.",
      "close_at": "2026-03-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-04-01T08:25:09Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nMojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.\n\nAn official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
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          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 3230921.5517540085,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "iran",
        "iran leadership",
        "leadership",
        "political"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NBQPLLXX05",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-TYRP27H901",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xb412664463bbfe21be44b1963291205ab332afd4f7f6e0d027aec1ba7a9e6793",
      "question": "Iran leadership change by April 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nMojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.\n\nAn official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution regardless of w",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "April 30: The UMA Optimistic Oracle resolves whether the named individual ceases to be de facto leader of Iran through removal, detention, or loss of position by May 1, 2026, 06:42 UTC, based on official announcements or credible reporting.",
      "close_at": "2026-04-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-05-01T06:42:54Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nMojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.\n\nAn official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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        "sources": [
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 10,
        "caps": [
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          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.002,
      "implied_probability": 0.002,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 4964959.242147999,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NBQPLLXX05",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-05-01T06:42:54Z",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-T7RVXQ9695",
      "platform": "polymarket",
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      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-04-01T08:25:09Z",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-FMB7VJVPS2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
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      "resolved_at": "2026-03-18T04:25:37Z",
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    "ref": "CM-EVT-TYRP27H901",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}