{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-YQ6BFV3GX1",
  "slug": "iran-nuclear-test-before-2027",
  "question": "Will Iran conduct a nuclear test before 2027?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "nuclear-proliferation",
    "iran",
    "weapons-testing",
    "middle-east",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether Iran conducts a nuclear weapons test producing a fission or fusion chain reaction before end-2026. Only one platform prices this event as a binary outcome. Resolution relies on Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle to confirm whether a qualifying detonation occurred. No corroborating platform structures this event at a rate level or margin, limiting cross-platform signal.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-8D3BQK8875",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.05,
    "implied_probability": 0.05
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-8D3BQK8875",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-YQ6BFV3GX1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x765e5daae966128da2acac8edab65d23abcabcf8958563a490d24c3498812c85",
      "question": "Iran nuclear test before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.\n\nAccidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as \"dirty bombs\"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.\n\nTests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consens",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "UMA Optimistic Oracle determines whether Iran conducted a nuclear test producing a fission or fusion chain reaction by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.\n\nAccidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as \"dirty bombs\"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.\n\nTests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 \"Vela Incident\" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 27,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.05,
      "implied_probability": 0.05,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 222768.53599799986,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "geopolitics",
        "iran",
        "iran nuclear test",
        "nuclear",
        "weapons"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-YQ6BFV3GX1",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}