{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
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  "event_id": "CM-EVT-RV9Z73GLB0",
  "slug": "iran-nuke-before-2027",
  "question": "Will Iran develop a nuclear weapon before 2027?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "nuclear-proliferation",
    "iran",
    "middle-east",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether Iran will publicly confirm or demonstrate a nuclear weapons capability before the end of 2026. Only one platform structures this event, so no cross-platform contrast applies. Resolution relies on Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, drawing on IAEA statements, Iranian government declarations, or credible global news sources. The binary framing excludes ambiguous or unverified weapons claims.",
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  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SVM6Z3GQH9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RV9Z73GLB0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x8bdeac60c92d3bc494792fd334ca181b0cf70355f23dca4098d558280b554c81",
      "question": "Iran Nuke before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nOtherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "International Nuclear Agency (IAEA) statements, Iran's government declarations, or credible global news sources confirming Iran's possession of a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nOtherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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        "score": 13,
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "implied_probability": 0.058,
      "volume_24h_usd": 63907.186311,
      "volume_total_usd": 1197878.864155017,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "geopolitics",
        "iran",
        "iran nuclear weapon",
        "nuclear",
        "weapons"
      ],
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    "ref": "CM-EVT-RV9Z73GLB0",
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