{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-NY36FPFSV5",
  "slug": "iran-successfully-targets-shipping-by",
  "question": "Will Iran successfully target shipping by August 2026?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "iran",
    "shipping-security",
    "middle-east",
    "2026",
    "military-action"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Iran successfully targets shipping vessels across four sequential deadlines in 2026: August 9, August 16, August 31, and September 30. Each binary contract is structured as a rolling deadline extension, pricing cumulative probability of an incident by each cutoff. All four resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle. Traders should note that \"successfully targets\" requires precise definitional agreement at resolution, creating interpretation risk across all contracts.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-53LMBDVZY2",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.66,
    "implied_probability": 0.66
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-53LMBDVZY2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-NY36FPFSV5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xeb9fa6e748b9fbaa35f8001e01a4e5e20e6d44309530cdaa53034f45a7b867e8",
      "question": "Iran successfully targets shipping by August 9, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship between market creation, and the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAttacks on military vessels will not be considered.\n\nOnly military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count tow",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "August 9: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-08-09T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-09T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship between market creation, and the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAttacks on military vessels will not be considered.\n\nOnly military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nMissile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.\n\nSeize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.\n\nQualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nIf a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 10,
        "caps": [
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          "adversarial_ground_truth",
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.66,
      "implied_probability": 0.66,
      "volume_24h_usd": 4401.455075000001,
      "volume_total_usd": 4401.455075,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "iran",
        "iran shipping attack",
        "middle east",
        "military",
        "shipping"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2T0B16RBS1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-NY36FPFSV5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xb3a359b0b6027d4fae156051a5f02fb0fdc026b4af4db4fd7269173a31da89c3",
      "question": "Iran successfully targets shipping by August 16, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship between market creation, and the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAttacks on military vessels will not be considered.\n\nOnly military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count tow",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "August 16: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-08-16T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-16T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship between market creation, and the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAttacks on military vessels will not be considered.\n\nOnly military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nMissile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.\n\nSeize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.\n\nQualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nIf a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 10,
        "caps": [
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          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.68,
      "implied_probability": 0.68,
      "volume_24h_usd": 3881.594158,
      "volume_total_usd": 3881.594158,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "iran",
        "iran shipping attack",
        "middle east",
        "military",
        "shipping"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-ZQYCDL7313",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-NY36FPFSV5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xb4375a8805f215bb2168456375b09fbecf8d0e7092f86001ac0e7f860af9efcf",
      "question": "Iran successfully targets shipping by August 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship between market creation, and the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAttacks on military vessels will not be considered.\n\nOnly military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count tow",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "August 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-08-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship between market creation, and the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAttacks on military vessels will not be considered.\n\nOnly military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nMissile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.\n\nSeize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.\n\nQualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nIf a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 10,
        "caps": [
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          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.74,
      "implied_probability": 0.74,
      "volume_24h_usd": 3001.6470000000004,
      "volume_total_usd": 3001.647,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "iran",
        "iran shipping attack",
        "middle east",
        "military",
        "shipping"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-9P053KGWH1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-NY36FPFSV5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xd88e0c97d5669df2ddda469e7e4d048b3f357facc901422dfa7cf32afe4fa4bd",
      "question": "Iran successfully targets shipping by September 30, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship between market creation, and the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAttacks on military vessels will not be considered.\n\nOnly military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count tow",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "September 30: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-09-30T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-30T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship between market creation, and the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAttacks on military vessels will not be considered.\n\nOnly military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nMissile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.\n\nSeize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.\n\nQualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nIf a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.86,
      "implied_probability": 0.86,
      "volume_24h_usd": 2910.208882,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-NY36FPFSV5",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}