{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-PBCGPRSMR6",
  "slug": "iran-successfully-targets-shipping-onptptpt-20260729163314520",
  "question": "Will Iran successfully target shipping in August 2026? (daily series)",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "middle-east",
    "maritime-conflict",
    "iran",
    "shipping-security",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Iran successfully targets commercial or naval shipping on each calendar day through August 2026. All 31 markets are structured as daily binary outcomes on Polymarket, resolving independently via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle. The series prices day-level incident probability rather than a monthly aggregate, allowing traders to isolate specific dates. The \"successfully targets\" threshold is a key resolution caveat; ambiguous or contested incidents may trigger UMA dispute proceedings.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-SBR38TX5K3",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.17,
    "implied_probability": 0.17
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
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      "platform_market_id": "0x70eb62d0bf257d05a4116df2471cbe7a59fa2a504d09f48211e450d0b45a90ff",
      "question": "Iran successfully targets shipping on August 1, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAttacks on military vessels will not be considered.\n\nOnly military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\n",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "August 1: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-08-01T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-01T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAttacks on military vessels will not be considered.\n\nOnly military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nMissile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.\n\nSeize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.\n\nQualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nIf a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.\n",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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      "rcg": {
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        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 481.284995,
      "volume_total_usd": 1059.793547,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "tags": [
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      "platform_market_id": "0xf21714353d12051055286a52a6a4651f76bb86397faf31975b4af9fe0b639387",
      "question": "Iran successfully targets shipping on August 2, 2026?",
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      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "August 2: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-08-02T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-02T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAttacks on military vessels will not be considered.\n\nOnly military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nMissile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.\n\nSeize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.\n\nQualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nIf a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.\n",
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.42,
      "implied_probability": 0.42,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SBR38TX5K3",
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      "platform_market_id": "0x165a4fdf83dae69d5c9857e215215c024e4ad54b5d747db7886b64346284bdaa",
      "question": "Iran successfully targets shipping on August 3, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAttacks on military vessels will not be considered.\n\nOnly military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\n",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "August 3: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-08-03T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-03T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAttacks on military vessels will not be considered.\n\nOnly military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nMissile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.\n\nSeize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.\n\nQualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nIf a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.\n",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 10,
        "caps": [
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          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.17,
      "implied_probability": 0.17,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1324.7556670000001,
      "volume_total_usd": 7062.453663000001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "tags": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-YDF1GKNG11",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PBCGPRSMR6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x75a58af77f6ba68ce374c44607f7acf6667c297f02aad84559a3730c6212b9a4",
      "question": "Iran successfully targets shipping on August 4, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAttacks on military vessels will not be considered.\n\nOnly military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\n",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "August 4: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-08-04T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-04T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAttacks on military vessels will not be considered.\n\nOnly military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nMissile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.\n\nSeize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.\n\nQualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nIf a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.\n",
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.39,
      "implied_probability": 0.39,
      "volume_24h_usd": 2415.913022,
      "volume_total_usd": 5066.105423,
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-L7QMWHF0H6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PBCGPRSMR6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x69779797febc311bf8377630a5ef34f6d2b24f447ff6ef0ab488bcb4ba21c884",
      "question": "Iran successfully targets shipping on August 5, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAttacks on military vessels will not be considered.\n\nOnly military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\n",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "August 5: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-08-05T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-05T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAttacks on military vessels will not be considered.\n\nOnly military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nMissile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.\n\nSeize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.\n\nQualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nIf a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.\n",
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      "volume_24h_usd": 109.22085,
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      "tags": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LN6NJCWQD2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PBCGPRSMR6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xde6f4918654a5a2f78a0a0d6d7338c82f12b5bf241db7b35354c77f38a506839",
      "question": "Iran successfully targets shipping on August 6, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAttacks on military vessels will not be considered.\n\nOnly military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\n",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "August 6: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-08-06T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-06T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAttacks on military vessels will not be considered.\n\nOnly military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nMissile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.\n\nSeize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.\n\nQualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nIf a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.\n",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.23,
      "implied_probability": 0.23,
      "volume_24h_usd": 207.946632,
      "volume_total_usd": 363.94663199999997,
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      "tags": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RWBXPVP2B8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PBCGPRSMR6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x9073d75e91c18f8aca7f08e214b26325d2533c0da4c22b85a148e8b13d9f3426",
      "question": "Iran successfully targets shipping on August 7, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAttacks on military vessels will not be considered.\n\nOnly military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\n",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "August 7: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-08-07T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-07T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAttacks on military vessels will not be considered.\n\nOnly military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nMissile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.\n\nSeize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.\n\nQualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nIf a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.\n",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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      "question": "Iran successfully targets shipping on August 21, 2026?",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAttacks on military vessels will not be considered.\n\nOnly military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nMissile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.\n\nSeize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.\n\nQualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nIf a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.\n",
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      "question": "Iran successfully targets shipping on August 22, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAttacks on military vessels will not be considered.\n\nOnly military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\n",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAttacks on military vessels will not be considered.\n\nOnly military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nMissile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.\n\nSeize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.\n\nQualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nIf a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.\n",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
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        "caps": [
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      "question": "Iran successfully targets shipping on August 23, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAttacks on military vessels will not be considered.\n\nOnly military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\n",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "close_at": "2026-08-23T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-23T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAttacks on military vessels will not be considered.\n\nOnly military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nMissile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.\n\nSeize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.\n\nQualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nIf a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.\n",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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        "source": null,
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      "rcg": {
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        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "question": "Iran successfully targets shipping on August 24, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAttacks on military vessels will not be considered.\n\nOnly military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\n",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "close_at": "2026-08-24T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-24T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAttacks on military vessels will not be considered.\n\nOnly military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nMissile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.\n\nSeize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.\n\nQualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nIf a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.\n",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 10,
        "caps": [
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      "volume_24h_usd": null,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PBCGPRSMR6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x9b93deb657f6ba731d96f1b1608aacedd3f5ac1e86ebfd3a318dc743c9ac905f",
      "question": "Iran successfully targets shipping on August 25, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAttacks on military vessels will not be considered.\n\nOnly military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\n",
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      "close_at": "2026-08-25T23:59:00Z",
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      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAttacks on military vessels will not be considered.\n\nOnly military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nMissile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.\n\nSeize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.\n\nQualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nIf a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.\n",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 10,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": null,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "tags": [
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-V4J7SXXFB6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PBCGPRSMR6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xa56de529b50bd3ea2a1a49000391bf6704d9fcb27cce71ab5ec5c86d048c68ce",
      "question": "Iran successfully targets shipping on August 26, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAttacks on military vessels will not be considered.\n\nOnly military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\n",
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      "close_at": "2026-08-26T23:59:00Z",
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      "status": "open",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAttacks on military vessels will not be considered.\n\nOnly military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nMissile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.\n\nSeize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.\n\nQualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nIf a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.\n",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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        "score": 10,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.15,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 30,
      "volume_total_usd": 302.78,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "tags": [
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Z9Q31TR991",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PBCGPRSMR6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x5132d17fa94fdb57e7c77e063b708e20da0fb224c4f76a66e267ddab23ba70e4",
      "question": "Iran successfully targets shipping on August 27, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAttacks on military vessels will not be considered.\n\nOnly military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\n",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "August 27: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-08-27T23:59:00Z",
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      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAttacks on military vessels will not be considered.\n\nOnly military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nMissile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.\n\nSeize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.\n\nQualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nIf a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.\n",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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        "caps": [
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-WD9YD8ZZ74",
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      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xe75eeb6d8e084495956ce461de56d35990305a92860947663091429dec348f3a",
      "question": "Iran successfully targets shipping on August 28, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAttacks on military vessels will not be considered.\n\nOnly military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\n",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "August 28: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-08-28T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-28T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAttacks on military vessels will not be considered.\n\nOnly military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nMissile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.\n\nSeize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.\n\nQualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nIf a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.\n",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-1DL61VJ7G1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PBCGPRSMR6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x7e08f0fd7774e1d37e6dbf7949708f740aa0cbc576558b096e2ae217ebe139f7",
      "question": "Iran successfully targets shipping on August 29, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAttacks on military vessels will not be considered.\n\nOnly military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\n",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "August 29: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-08-29T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-29T23:59:00Z",
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  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-PBCGPRSMR6",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}