{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-974T1626Q2",
  "slug": "iran-x-oman-strait-of-hormuz-agreement-by-june-15",
  "question": "Will Iran and Oman reach an agreement regarding the Strait of Hormuz by June 15?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "middle-east",
    "iran-oman",
    "maritime-agreement",
    "2026",
    "bilateral-diplomacy"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether Iran and Oman will reach a publicly announced official agreement regarding the Strait of Hormuz by June 15, 2026. Only one platform structures this event, so no cross-platform structural contrast applies. Resolution follows Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, requiring a publicly announced official agreement as the triggering condition. The narrow evidentiary standard means informal diplomatic contacts or leaked frameworks would not suffice for settlement.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-QJDYDLP5P6",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0,
    "implied_probability": 0
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-QJDYDLP5P6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-974T1626Q2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x27a7a60a3605b0cc0f41f0f243e6be5f2a6144b0adf59fad803fbc1ca6eeb928",
      "question": "Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if an official agreement relating to vessel traffic, transit management, tolling, or fee collection in the Strait of Hormuz, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Iran and Oman between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes\", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.\n\nStatements describing talks, proposals, negotiations, or non-finalized frameworks that do ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "UMA Optimistic Oracle resolves based on publicly announced official agreements between Iran and Oman regarding Strait of Hormuz vessel traffic, transit management, tolling, or fees by June 15, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-15T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-15T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if an official agreement relating to vessel traffic, transit management, tolling, or fee collection in the Strait of Hormuz, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Iran and Oman between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes\", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.\n\nStatements describing talks, proposals, negotiations, or non-finalized frameworks that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not qualify.\n\nAn agreement will qualify as a mutual agreement if it is confirmed as a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if the agreement isn’t formally announced by both governments.\n\nAgreements that include Iran and Oman as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Iran and Oman; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from the governments of Iran and Oman",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 158.94,
      "volume_total_usd": 16847.677153999954,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "agreement",
        "geopolitics",
        "iran",
        "iran oman strait",
        "oman",
        "strait of hormuz"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-QJDYDLP5P6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-15T00:00:00Z",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-974T1626Q2",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}