{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-5TKXRL9KJ8",
  "slug": "israel-and-lebanon-normalize-relations-before-2027",
  "question": "Will Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "middle-east",
    "diplomacy",
    "israel-lebanon",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether Israel and Lebanon formally establish diplomatic relations before end of 2026. Resolution depends on official government announcements from both states. Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle adjudicates the outcome against that standard. No normalization agreement exists as of the current date.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-QSCDJT1R26",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.14,
    "implied_probability": 0.14
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  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-QSCDJT1R26",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5TKXRL9KJ8",
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      "platform_market_id": "0xfb013a43c6ea97f5af4515baefbefdc2a9cfeca1d764aa9f3ce1f6bd93002dfe",
      "question": "Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if both Israel and Lebanon officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and the Lebanon, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Official announcements from Israel and Lebanon governments regarding establishment of diplomatic relations, or consensus of credible reporting if official statements are unavailable.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if both Israel and Lebanon officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and the Lebanon, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from Israel and the Lebanon",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 44,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.14,
      "implied_probability": 0.14,
      "volume_24h_usd": 544.269629,
      "volume_total_usd": 229469.42837600005,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "diplomacy",
        "geopolitics",
        "israel",
        "israel lebanon relations",
        "lebanon"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-5TKXRL9KJ8",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}