{
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    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
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  "event_id": "CM-EVT-KFM6RVW5P7",
  "slug": "israel-announces-lebanon-ceasefire-extension-by",
  "question": "Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension in 2026? (multi-deadline series)",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "israel-lebanon",
    "ceasefire-extension",
    "middle-east",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Israel formally announces a Lebanon ceasefire extension with Hezbollah by three discrete deadlines: May 31, June 7, and June 30, 2026. Each deadline is a separate binary, creating an implicit probability term structure across the three strikes. A June 7 resolution on the June 30 contract introduces timing risk: that market closes before its named deadline passes. All three resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against an official Israeli government announcement.",
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-JDTQH0VLR7",
  "current_primary_mark": {
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    "implied_probability": 1
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  "created_at": "2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00",
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-JDTQH0VLR7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KFM6RVW5P7",
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      "platform_market_id": "0x42973552f8bcfc9269fba8492766f2c20a22243cbba154cf695acaff88ec96c7",
      "question": "Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel officially announces another extension of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah announced on April 16, 2026, defined as a publicly announced commitment to halt direct military engagement with Hezbollah, by the specified date, 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nBoth announcements of extensions of the April 16 ceasefire, as extended on April 23 and May 15, 2026, and of new agreements will qualify.\n\nIf a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolv",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "An official Israeli government announcement of a ceasefire extension with Hezbollah by June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-07T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-07T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel officially announces another extension of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah announced on April 16, 2026, defined as a publicly announced commitment to halt direct military engagement with Hezbollah, by the specified date, 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nBoth announcements of extensions of the April 16 ceasefire, as extended on April 23 and May 15, 2026, and of new agreements will qualify.\n\nIf a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect.\n\nA qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the Israeli government that Israel has extended its commitment to the ceasefire beyond its current scheduled end.\n\nAny form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation, or unilateral pause in hostilities without a confirmed Israeli announcement of a qualifying extension will not qualify. Similarly, newly agreed-upon humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not qualify.\n\nA newly agreed-upon broader peace deal will qualify if it includes Israel's agreement to a ceasefire extension. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures, but do not explicitly extend the ceasefire, will not qualify.\n\nThis market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli government and will not require confirmation from Hezbollah. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting that a ceasefire extension agreement has been reached will suffice.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
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      "tags": [
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      "question": "Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30?",
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      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel officially announces another extension of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah announced on April 16, 2026, defined as a publicly announced commitment to halt direct military engagement with Hezbollah, by the specified date, 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nBoth announcements of extensions of the April 16 ceasefire, as extended on April 23 and May 15, 2026, and of new agreements will qualify.\n\nIf a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect.\n\nA qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the Israeli government that Israel has extended its commitment to the ceasefire beyond its current scheduled end.\n\nAny form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation, or unilateral pause in hostilities without a confirmed Israeli announcement of a qualifying extension will not qualify. Similarly, newly agreed-upon humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not qualify.\n\nA newly agreed-upon broader peace deal will qualify if it includes Israel's agreement to a ceasefire extension. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures, but do not explicitly extend the ceasefire, will not qualify.\n\nThis market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli government and will not require confirmation from Hezbollah. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting that a ceasefire extension agreement has been reached will suffice.",
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      "question": "Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by May 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel officially announces another extension of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah announced on April 16, 2026, defined as a publicly announced commitment to halt direct military engagement with Hezbollah, by the specified date, 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nBoth announcements of extensions of the April 16 ceasefire, as extended on April 23 and May 15, 2026, and of new agreements will qualify.\n\nIf a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolv",
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      "underlying_reference": "An official Israeli government announcement of a ceasefire extension with Hezbollah by June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time.",
      "close_at": "2026-05-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-05-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel officially announces another extension of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah announced on April 16, 2026, defined as a publicly announced commitment to halt direct military engagement with Hezbollah, by the specified date, 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nBoth announcements of extensions of the April 16 ceasefire, as extended on April 23 and May 15, 2026, and of new agreements will qualify.\n\nIf a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect.\n\nA qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the Israeli government that Israel has extended its commitment to the ceasefire beyond its current scheduled end.\n\nAny form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation, or unilateral pause in hostilities without a confirmed Israeli announcement of a qualifying extension will not qualify. Similarly, newly agreed-upon humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not qualify.\n\nA newly agreed-upon broader peace deal will qualify if it includes Israel's agreement to a ceasefire extension. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures, but do not explicitly extend the ceasefire, will not qualify.\n\nThis market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli government and will not require confirmation from Hezbollah. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting that a ceasefire extension agreement has been reached will suffice.",
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      "tags": [
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        "israel lebanon ceasefire",
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      "recorded_at": "2026-06-12",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0VPH96PL17",
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      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-05-31T00:00:00Z",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-06-12",
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    "ref": "CM-EVT-KFM6RVW5P7",
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}