{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-49Z7YZY008",
  "slug": "israel-election-likud-of-seats",
  "question": "Will Likud win at least 30 seats in the next Israeli election?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "elections",
    "israel",
    "likud",
    "2026",
    "legislative-seats"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track Likud's certified Knesset seat total in the 2026 Israeli legislative election. Five discrete seat-range brackets span the full outcome distribution, from below 20 to 35 or more seats. Together they function as a probability-weighted range distribution across mutually exclusive outcomes. Israel's Central Elections Committee is the authoritative source; Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle handles resolution against certified allocations by October 27, 2026.",
  "venues_covered": [
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-VMP3G9XY54",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.224,
    "implied_probability": 0.224
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-VMP3G9XY54",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-49Z7YZY008",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xb3c97c349eca27060cbbfa2bc1beec1df512fc90a859f08439318785c461dc86",
      "question": "Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?",
      "description": "Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.\n\nIf the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.\n\nIf the results of this elec",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "<20: Israel's Central Elections Committee will certify final Knesset seat allocation for the named party or its joint list by October 27, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-27T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-27T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.\n\nIf the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.\n\nIf the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.\n\nThis market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "gov.il",
            "url": "https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        "source_of_record": "gov.il",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.224,
      "implied_probability": 0.224,
      "volume_24h_usd": 142.22036200000002,
      "volume_total_usd": 25239.732453000004,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 20,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "elections",
        "israel",
        "knesset",
        "likud"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-B01Y21KM87",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-49Z7YZY008",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x3135bdbe2e03604ff34296d209bccf73d7e90b47f634bf47becffaad852c064d",
      "question": "Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?",
      "description": "Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.\n\nIf the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.\n\nIf the results of this elec",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "20-24: Israel's Central Elections Committee will certify final Knesset seat allocation for the named party or its joint list by October 27, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-27T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-27T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.\n\nIf the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.\n\nIf the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.\n\nThis market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page",
        "sources": [
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        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.36,
      "implied_probability": 0.36,
      "volume_24h_usd": 230.971677,
      "volume_total_usd": 8442.704723,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "knesset",
        "likud"
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-3PGLV9BG61",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-49Z7YZY008",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xd63e1e2db811ba09972cbac9810edcca72ffdc1d195c03547ac0be2fb7a3c3d7",
      "question": "Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?",
      "description": "Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.\n\nIf the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.\n\nIf the results of this elec",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "25-29: Israel's Central Elections Committee will certify final Knesset seat allocation for the named party or its joint list by October 27, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-27T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-27T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.\n\nIf the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.\n\nIf the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.\n\nThis market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page",
        "sources": [
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        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.29,
      "implied_probability": 0.29,
      "volume_24h_usd": 481.7624389999999,
      "volume_total_usd": 21992.025702999992,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
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        "israel",
        "knesset",
        "likud"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-D1MT6HXV80",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-49Z7YZY008",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xc855714184ac46005a7897c68f274147f0abf1fde791421541edb065fa65a1e4",
      "question": "Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?",
      "description": "Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.\n\nIf the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.\n\nIf the results of this elec",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "30-34: Israel's Central Elections Committee will certify final Knesset seat allocation for the named party or its joint list by October 27, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-27T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-27T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.\n\nIf the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.\n\nIf the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.\n\nThis market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).",
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        "source_status": "platform_named",
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        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.16,
      "implied_probability": 0.16,
      "volume_24h_usd": 81.26,
      "volume_total_usd": 16172.936990000002,
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      "tags": [
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-49Z7YZY008",
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      "platform_market_id": "0x78b3aec55f914a149fc110ffd4dcfb008ff94e2df4a451b396f7c14a572d6aa7",
      "question": "Will Likud win 35 or more seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?",
      "description": "Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.\n\nIf the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.\n\nIf the results of this elec",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "35+: Israel's Central Elections Committee will certify final Knesset seat allocation for the named party or its joint list by October 27, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-27T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-27T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.\n\nIf the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.\n\nIf the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.\n\nThis market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page",
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        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.053,
      "implied_probability": 0.053,
      "volume_24h_usd": 66.558937,
      "volume_total_usd": 7639.389731,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 35,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "israel",
        "knesset",
        "likud"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
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