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    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
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  "event_id": "CM-EVT-B7HLRT1CG4",
  "slug": "israel-military-action-against-beirut-byptptpt-20260708221422557",
  "question": "Will Israel conduct military action against Beirut by July 2026?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "middle-east-conflict",
    "israel-lebanon",
    "military-action",
    "2026"
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  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Israel conducts military action against Greater Beirut by sequential deadlines in 2026: July 14, July 21, July 31, and August 31. All four are binary outcome markets on the same Polymarket platform, structured as a probability ladder across expanding time horizons. Longer-dated contracts should trade at a premium to shorter-dated ones, as cumulative probability rises with each deadline extension. All four resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
  "venues_covered": [
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-7P47Q5CFM9",
  "current_primary_mark": {
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    "implied_probability": 0.006
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  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-B7HLRT1CG4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x29ae3cea0adba0666047705f5cd8a66f349dfd9ddef24247c8f9f95c4aba24fe",
      "question": "Israel military action against Greater Beirut by July 14?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel takes a qualifying military action against Greater Beirut by the specified date, 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time (IDT). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel, that directly impacts Greater Beirut. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions d",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "July 14: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-07-14T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-14T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel takes a qualifying military action against Greater Beirut by the specified date, 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time (IDT). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel, that directly impacts Greater Beirut. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:\nMunitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nAny munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Greater Beirut do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.\n\n“Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IDT) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Lebanon and credible reporting.",
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      "question": "Israel military action against Greater Beirut by July 21?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel takes a qualifying military action against Greater Beirut by the specified date, 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time (IDT). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel, that directly impacts Greater Beirut. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions d",
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      "underlying_reference": "July 21: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-07-21T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-21T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel takes a qualifying military action against Greater Beirut by the specified date, 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time (IDT). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel, that directly impacts Greater Beirut. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:\nMunitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nAny munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Greater Beirut do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.\n\n“Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IDT) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Lebanon and credible reporting.",
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    {
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-B7HLRT1CG4",
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      "question": "Israel military action against Greater Beirut by July 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel takes a qualifying military action against Greater Beirut by the specified date, 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time (IDT). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel, that directly impacts Greater Beirut. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions d",
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      "close_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
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      "resolution": {
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      "question": "Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?",
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      "close_at": "2026-08-31T23:59:00Z",
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        "source": null,
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