{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-Y7KHP4D735",
  "slug": "israel-strike-on-damascus-by-september-30",
  "question": "Will Israel conduct military action against Damascus by 2025?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "israel-syria",
    "military-action",
    "middle-east-conflict",
    "2025"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Israel conducts a military strike on Damascus across rolling expiry dates through June 2026. All six contracts are Polymarket binary outcomes; each prices the same directional event at a different deadline, creating a term-structure of conflict probability. Earlier tenors reveal near-term implied odds; later tenors compound duration risk. Resolution for each contract follows Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle protocol.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-6XVF3Z3Y08",
  "current_primary_mark": {
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    "implied_probability": 0.01
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  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-23PPN9LS86",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Y7KHP4D735",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x032709a8e2d7ac74943201f32aaafb69ed0d6cd11b0512f1cf7f8ed62ea96ca7",
      "question": "Israel strike on Damascus by September 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Damascus Governorate, or any target within it, between September 1, 7:20 PM ET, and September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Damascus Governorate.\n\nMissiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a \"Yes\" resolution regardless of whether they ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "September 30: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2025-09-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2025-10-01T06:30:47Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Damascus Governorate, or any target within it, between September 1, 7:20 PM ET, and September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Damascus Governorate.\n\nMissiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a \"Yes\" resolution regardless of whether they land in Damascus Governorate, or cause damage.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and video evidence. If there is ambiguity over whether a strike occurred, or whether the drone/missile was intercepted, this market will resolve based on whatever is most likely according to a consensus of credible reporting and video evidence.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 41,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 16769.883532,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
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      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "damascus",
        "israel",
        "israel military action",
        "military",
        "strike"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0GG54NLKV8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Y7KHP4D735",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x64997e14bee559704c9aa85b8597a281f6f155761f78a1b66fd84c912eb062d8",
      "question": "Israel strike on Damascus by December 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Damascus Governorate, or any target within it, between October 7, 4:35 PM ET, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Damascus Governorate.\n\nMissiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a \"Yes\" resolution regardless of whether they lan",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2025-09-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-01-01T11:48:21Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Damascus Governorate, or any target within it, between October 7, 4:35 PM ET, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Damascus Governorate.\n\nMissiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a \"Yes\" resolution regardless of whether they land in Damascus Governorate, or cause damage.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and video evidence. If there is ambiguity over whether a strike occurred, or whether the drone/missile was intercepted, this market will resolve based on whatever is most likely according to a consensus of credible reporting and video evidence.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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      "question": "Israel strike on Damascus by October 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Damascus Governorate, or any target within it, between September 1, 7:20 PM ET, and October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Damascus Governorate.\n\nMissiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a \"Yes\" resolution regardless of whether they la",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "October 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2025-09-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2025-11-01T06:39:58Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Damascus Governorate, or any target within it, between September 1, 7:20 PM ET, and October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Damascus Governorate.\n\nMissiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a \"Yes\" resolution regardless of whether they land in Damascus Governorate, or cause damage.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and video evidence. If there is ambiguity over whether a strike occurred, or whether the drone/missile was intercepted, this market will resolve based on whatever is most likely according to a consensus of credible reporting and video evidence.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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        "sources": [
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 41,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "tags": [
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        "military",
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-6XVF3Z3Y08",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Y7KHP4D735",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xbfe2252feb42b566915b9ad599ded119a0dcefd318734a8a691fe2add291edc6",
      "question": "Israel strike on Damascus by March 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Damascus Governorate, or any target within it, between December 8, 2:20 PM ET, and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Damascus Governorate.\n\nMissiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a \"Yes\" resolution regardless of whether they land ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "March 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-03-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-04-01T11:05:01Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Damascus Governorate, or any target within it, between December 8, 2:20 PM ET, and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Damascus Governorate.\n\nMissiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a \"Yes\" resolution regardless of whether they land in Damascus Governorate, or cause damage.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and video evidence. If there is ambiguity over whether a strike occurred, or whether the drone/missile was intercepted, this market will resolve based on whatever is most likely according to a consensus of credible reporting and video evidence.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 41,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.01,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "tags": [
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        "israel military action",
        "military",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Z9LYDBR8X7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Y7KHP4D735",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x508d34be21d6f993b5e141eedeb0a413cebfc7d4ba9e155bcc4efe096dee400c",
      "question": "Israel military action on Damascus by April 30, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Damascus Governorate, or any target within it, between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Damascus Governorate.\n\nMissiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a \"Yes\" resolution regardless of whether they land in Damas",
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      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "April 30: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-04-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-05-01T07:39:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Damascus Governorate, or any target within it, between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Damascus Governorate.\n\nMissiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a \"Yes\" resolution regardless of whether they land in Damascus Governorate, or cause damage.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and video evidence. If there is ambiguity over whether a strike occurred, or whether the drone/missile was intercepted, this market will resolve based on whatever is most likely according to a consensus of credible reporting and video evidence.",
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-X57Z07GDR6",
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      "question": "Israel military action on Damascus by June 30, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Damascus Governorate, or any target within it, between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Damascus Governorate.\n\nMissiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a \"Yes\" resolution regardless of whether they land in Damasc",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 30: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Damascus Governorate, or any target within it, between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Damascus Governorate.\n\nMissiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a \"Yes\" resolution regardless of whether they land in Damascus Governorate, or cause damage.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and video evidence. If there is ambiguity over whether a strike occurred, or whether the drone/missile was intercepted, this market will resolve based on whatever is most likely according to a consensus of credible reporting and video evidence.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 189.09,
      "volume_total_usd": 6453.425648000002,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
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        "israel military action",
        "military",
        "strike"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-X57Z07GDR6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Z9LYDBR8X7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-05-01T07:39:00Z",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-6XVF3Z3Y08",
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      "resolved_at": "2026-04-01T11:05:01Z",
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      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0GG54NLKV8",
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      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-4Q7GDW7485",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-23PPN9LS86",
      "platform": "polymarket",
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      "resolved_at": "2025-10-01T06:30:47Z",
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      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
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    "ref": "CM-EVT-Y7KHP4D735",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}