{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-C85G7616S2",
  "slug": "israel-strike-on-yemen-by-593",
  "question": "Will Israel conduct military action against Yemen in 2026? (multi-deadline series)",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "israel-yemen",
    "military-action",
    "middle-east",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Israel conducts a military strike against Yemen by successive deadlines through June 30, 2026. All five contracts are structured as binary outcome questions on Polymarket, each with a distinct cutoff date, creating a term structure of strike probability. Later-dated contracts price cumulative probability across longer windows, so the spread between consecutive strikes reflects the marginal probability assigned to each interval. All five resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-FD6KP20MV6",
  "current_primary_mark": {
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    "implied_probability": 0
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  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-C85G7616S2",
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      "platform_market_id": "0x3fe18d2b6303ee3a7e406aab679dbc0b0f7504dc6b477a31c69c6ffb04e9e11c",
      "question": "Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Yemeni soil or any official Yemen embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM Israeli local time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemen soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolv",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 30: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Yemeni soil or any official Yemen embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM Israeli local time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemen soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to \"Yes\").\n\nMissiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Yemen territory or cause damage.\n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
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      "tags": [
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        "israel military action",
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        "yemen"
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      "question": "Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Yemeni soil or any official Yemen embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM Israeli local time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemen soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolv",
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      "underlying_reference": "March 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-03-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-04-01T00:38:35Z",
      "status": "closed",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Yemeni soil or any official Yemen embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM Israeli local time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemen soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to \"Yes\").\n\nMissiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Yemen territory or cause damage.\n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
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      "tags": [
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RL62K1NJ03",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-C85G7616S2",
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      "platform_market_id": "0x250716ecd25235530ba4dbd1fa0acf6ab92ab05cf5347e25fc86c4384ef1cecb",
      "question": "Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Yemeni soil or any official Yemen embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM Israeli local time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemen soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolv",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "May 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-05-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-01T07:00:04Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Yemeni soil or any official Yemen embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM Israeli local time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemen soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to \"Yes\").\n\nMissiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Yemen territory or cause damage.\n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
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        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 38,
        "caps": [
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          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.036,
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      "volume_24h_usd": null,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "tags": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-B5045RBM39",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-C85G7616S2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xb7dfd4e3da4055435f1db97db441391729df4a9e4b41b5f6d0212fc490eb5445",
      "question": "Israel strike on Yemen by April 30, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Yemeni soil or any official Yemen embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM Israeli local time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemen soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolv",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "April 30: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-04-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-05-02T23:09:58Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Yemeni soil or any official Yemen embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM Israeli local time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemen soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to \"Yes\").\n\nMissiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Yemen territory or cause damage.\n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
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        "grade": "C",
        "score": 38,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "volume_24h_usd": null,
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      "tags": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-WTNZDLF8R6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-C85G7616S2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x00cf5f4a419743e3bbaea3d01537c895ecfd8edba5e539967fe662573de44f23",
      "question": "Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Yemeni soil or any official Yemen embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM Israeli local time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemen soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolv",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "April 15: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-04-15T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-04-16T07:54:06Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Yemeni soil or any official Yemen embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM Israeli local time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemen soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to \"Yes\").\n\nMissiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Yemen territory or cause damage.\n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
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        "applied_factors": 7
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-FD6KP20MV6",
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      "resolved_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
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      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
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      "resolved_at": "2026-05-02T23:09:58Z",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-WTNZDLF8R6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-04-16T07:54:06Z",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PB44ZZQ5Q8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-04-01T00:38:35Z",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
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  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-C85G7616S2",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}