{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-DYN9QZ3X25",
  "slug": "israel-withdraws-from-lebanon-by",
  "question": "Will Israel withdraw from Lebanon by 2026?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "israel-lebanon",
    "military-withdrawal",
    "middle-east",
    "2026"
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  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Israel completes a military withdrawal from Lebanese territory by four sequential deadlines: April 30, May 31, June 30, and July 31, 2026. Each is a binary outcome market on Polymarket; together they form an implicit term structure on withdrawal timing. A position in the April contract implies a view on all later dates. Resolution follows Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle protocol, with no single named authoritative source beyond the stated event criteria.",
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      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes\" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.\n\nThe Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.",
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      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes\" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.\n\nThe Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this mark",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes\" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.\n\nThe Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.",
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