{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-979N1H7345",
  "slug": "israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-cancelled-by-october-31",
  "question": "Will the Israel-Hamas ceasefire be cancelled by either Israel or Hamas?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "israel-hamas-conflict",
    "middle-east",
    "ceasefire-agreements",
    "2025"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether the Israel-Hamas ceasefire will be cancelled by discrete calendar deadlines. Each contract is a binary outcome tied to a specific date, ranging from November 7 through June 30, 2025. The suite prices cumulative cancellation probability across successive horizons. Resolution follows Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle protocol.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-NWZMFDQK44",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 1,
    "implied_probability": 1
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NWZMFDQK44",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-979N1H7345",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x962c76d11abf9d8ef448281d25f3b8678d54866234a960f0f6e8879c7ae12f2b",
      "question": "Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by October 31?",
      "description": "On October 9, Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAnnouncements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to \"Yes\"; only a definitive",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "October 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2025-10-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2025-11-01T06:12:08Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "On October 9, Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAnnouncements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to \"Yes\"; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise a wide consensus of credible reporting that that the ceasefire has been ended, will qualify to resolve this market to \"Yes\".\n\nThe primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/",
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            "name": "reuters.com",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "official information from Hamas or the government of Israel",
            "url": null,
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 34,
        "caps": [
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          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 2502858.18776,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-VB9XFDQZY9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-979N1H7345",
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      "platform_market_id": "0xbc19cb5c84d57f2fed2b089a1634d63d7ad608da3100f5006c00782db44453d1",
      "question": "Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by December 31?",
      "description": "On October 9, Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAnnouncements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to \"Yes\"; only a definitiv",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-01-01T09:16:37Z",
      "status": "closed",
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        "rules_raw": "On October 9, Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAnnouncements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to \"Yes\"; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise a wide consensus of credible reporting that that the ceasefire has been ended, will qualify to resolve this market to \"Yes\".\n\nThe primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 34,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 708479.043831,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
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      "tags": [
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-HRBM5H4D92",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-979N1H7345",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x1161a32141bb18119d627d6747f1cec4f7de6aeed15abad0e6b1aa8af3b1a844",
      "question": "Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by November 30?",
      "description": "On October 9, Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAnnouncements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to \"Yes\"; only a definitiv",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "November 30: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2025-10-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2025-12-01T07:39:32Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "On October 9, Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAnnouncements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to \"Yes\"; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise a wide consensus of credible reporting that that the ceasefire has been ended, will qualify to resolve this market to \"Yes\".\n\nThe primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/",
        "sources": [
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            "url": "https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official information from Hamas or the government of Israel",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 34,
        "caps": [
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          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 347840.957852,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
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      "tags": [
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-WLS2PBQPZ5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-979N1H7345",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xfb9bb7bbab546a435381651637260adab3563943a37b6d47e0de437ec4877d3f",
      "question": "Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by November 7?",
      "description": "On October 9, Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by November 7, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAnnouncements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to \"Yes\"; only a definitive",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "November 7: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2025-10-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2025-11-08T07:18:57Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "On October 9, Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by November 7, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAnnouncements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to \"Yes\"; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise a wide consensus of credible reporting that that the ceasefire has been ended, will qualify to resolve this market to \"Yes\".\n\nThe primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
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        "source_citation": "https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/",
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        "grade": "C",
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        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 1,
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-6V93YNQ7V8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-979N1H7345",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x22cb289f07f3da4d3525f1c3944010a05c77d21ecf451719959ae54d24edcdb3",
      "question": "Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by March 31, 2026?",
      "description": "On October 9, Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAnnouncements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to \"Yes\"; only a definitive a",
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      "underlying_reference": "March 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-04-01T12:21:01Z",
      "status": "closed",
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        "rules_raw": "On October 9, Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAnnouncements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to \"Yes\"; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise a wide consensus of credible reporting that that the ceasefire has been ended, will qualify to resolve this market to \"Yes\".\n\nThe primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.002,
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-614Z0TPQQ1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-979N1H7345",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "1090488",
      "question": "Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by January 31?",
      "description": "On October 9, 2025 Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAnnouncements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to \"Yes\"; only a defin",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "January 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-01-31T00:00:00Z",
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      "status": "closed",
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        "rules_raw": "On October 9, 2025 Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAnnouncements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to \"Yes\"; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise a wide consensus of credible reporting that that the ceasefire has been ended, will qualify to resolve this market to \"Yes\".\n\nThe primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
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        "source_citation": "https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/",
        "sources": [
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
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      },
      "rcg": {
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        "caps": [
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          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "tags": [
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    {
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      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
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      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
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        "rules_raw": "On October 9, 2025 Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAnnouncements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to \"Yes\"; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise a wide consensus of credible reporting that that the ceasefire has been ended, will qualify to resolve this market to \"Yes\".\n\nThe primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
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        "source_citation": "https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/",
        "sources": [
          {
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
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      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 34,
        "caps": [
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 2622.45,
      "volume_total_usd": 136571.43308400005,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ceasefire",
        "conflict",
        "hamas",
        "israel",
        "israel hamas ceasefire"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PQX9WF0S48",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
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      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-04-01T12:21:01Z",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-614Z0TPQQ1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-01-31T00:00:00Z",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-VB9XFDQZY9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-01-01T09:16:37Z",
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      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
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      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-HRBM5H4D92",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2025-12-01T07:39:32Z",
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      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-WLS2PBQPZ5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "closed",
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    },
    {
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      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2025-11-01T06:12:08Z",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-979N1H7345",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}