{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-W8BMWJ29B8",
  "slug": "israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-phase-ii-by-october-31",
  "question": "Will Israel and Hamas reach a Ceasefire Phase II? (multi-deadline series, 2025-2026)",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "middle-east-conflict",
    "israel-hamas",
    "ceasefire-negotiations",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Israel and Hamas announce a mutually agreed Phase II ceasefire by successive monthly deadlines through December 31, 2026. Each contract is a binary outcome priced at a discrete deadline, forming an implied probability term structure across nine strike dates. Earlier deadlines trade at lower probabilities; later deadlines embed cumulative agreement probability. Resolution across all contracts relies on Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-QL0BJZLTN9",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.001,
    "implied_probability": 0.001
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SM6XPNK500",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-W8BMWJ29B8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xa6aa5a20027dd49336ca96b7ccbe0fabad29bf3ec01045cf8dc8535ea80156f2",
      "question": "Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31?",
      "description": "On October 8, an agreement on an initial ceasefire (Phase 1) was announced, constituting a halt in fighting, a partial Israeli pullback to a “yellow line,” prisoner swaps, expanded aid, and the release of hostages. A second phase of the deal, yet to be negotiated, is expected to address further Israeli withdrawal, Hamas’s disarmament, and the establishment of new security and governance arrangements in Gaza.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if an official agreement for the second phase of the Israel–Hamas ceasefire, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Israel ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31: The UMA Optimistic Oracle determines by February 1, 2026, whether the listed parties announce a mutually agreed official second-phase agreement addressing the specified governance and security terms.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "On October 8, an agreement on an initial ceasefire (Phase 1) was announced, constituting a halt in fighting, a partial Israeli pullback to a “yellow line,” prisoner swaps, expanded aid, and the release of hostages. A second phase of the deal, yet to be negotiated, is expected to address further Israeli withdrawal, Hamas’s disarmament, and the establishment of new security and governance arrangements in Gaza.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if an official agreement for the second phase of the Israel–Hamas ceasefire, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Israel and Hamas by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes,\" regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.\n\nFor purposes of this market, a “second phase” ceasefire agreement refers to a deal publicly acknowledged by both Israel and Hamas (directly or via recognized mediators such as the U.S., Egypt, or Qatar) that goes beyond the Phase 1 initial truce and includes commitments towards a comprehensive or “full” ceasefire.  Any agreement that is publicly described by the parties, or by mediators on their behalf, as the completion of “Phase 2” of the ceasefire will qualify, regardless of whether it includes further Israeli withdrawals beyond the “yellow line,” or agreements by Hamas to disarm.\n\nAn extension or continuation of the Phase 1 arrangement alone will not qualify.\n\nThis market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Israel and Hamas, however a wide consensus of credible media reporting will also qualify.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official announcements from both Israel and Hamas",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "credible media reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 26,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.14,
      "implied_probability": 0.14,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 14906.926737,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "reach",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ceasefire",
        "gaza",
        "hamas",
        "israel",
        "israel hamas ceasefire"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-HWNJW4SR40",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-W8BMWJ29B8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x42e3c646192b653e82c62967396def5affbbe8e97f136328372783deb18f5cd8",
      "question": "Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by July 31?",
      "description": "On October 8, an agreement on an initial ceasefire (Phase 1) was announced, constituting a halt in fighting, a partial Israeli pullback to a “yellow line,” prisoner swaps, expanded aid, and the release of hostages. A second phase of the deal, yet to be negotiated, is expected to address further Israeli withdrawal, Hamas’s disarmament, and the establishment of new security and governance arrangements in Gaza.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if an official agreement for the second phase of the Israel–Hamas ceasefire, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Israel ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "July 31: The UMA Optimistic Oracle determines by February 1, 2026, whether the listed parties announce a mutually agreed official second-phase agreement addressing the specified governance and security terms.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "On October 8, an agreement on an initial ceasefire (Phase 1) was announced, constituting a halt in fighting, a partial Israeli pullback to a “yellow line,” prisoner swaps, expanded aid, and the release of hostages. A second phase of the deal, yet to be negotiated, is expected to address further Israeli withdrawal, Hamas’s disarmament, and the establishment of new security and governance arrangements in Gaza.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if an official agreement for the second phase of the Israel–Hamas ceasefire, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Israel and Hamas by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes,\" regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.\n\nFor purposes of this market, a “second phase” ceasefire agreement refers to a deal publicly acknowledged by both Israel and Hamas (directly or via recognized mediators such as the U.S., Egypt, or Qatar) that goes beyond the Phase 1 initial truce and includes commitments towards a comprehensive or “full” ceasefire.  Any agreement that is publicly described by the parties, or by mediators on their behalf, as the completion of “Phase 2” of the ceasefire will qualify, regardless of whether it includes further Israeli withdrawals beyond the “yellow line,” or agreements by Hamas to disarm.\n\nAn extension or continuation of the Phase 1 arrangement alone will not qualify.\n\nThis market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Israel and Hamas, however a wide consensus of credible media reporting will also qualify.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official announcements from both Israel and Hamas",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "credible media reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 26,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.007,
      "implied_probability": 0.007,
      "volume_24h_usd": 70.8514,
      "volume_total_usd": 1115.0112039999997,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "reach",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ceasefire",
        "gaza",
        "hamas",
        "israel",
        "israel hamas ceasefire"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-BB6X0PZ6V7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-W8BMWJ29B8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xcf94a8f1ac8fb11b9738f75a35c9aa7bb1d64dea19cbdca5891290f9630b76eb",
      "question": "Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by October 31?",
      "description": "On October 8, an agreement on an initial ceasefire (Phase 1) was announced, constituting a halt in fighting, a partial Israeli pullback to a “yellow line,” prisoner swaps, expanded aid, and the release of hostages. A second phase of the deal, yet to be negotiated, is expected to address further Israeli withdrawal, Hamas’s disarmament, and the establishment of new security and governance arrangements in Gaza.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if an official agreement for the second phase of the Israel–Hamas ceasefire, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Israel ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "October 31: The UMA Optimistic Oracle determines by February 1, 2026, whether the listed parties announce a mutually agreed official second-phase agreement addressing the specified governance and security terms.",
      "close_at": "2025-10-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2025-11-01T06:50:12Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "On October 8, an agreement on an initial ceasefire (Phase 1) was announced, constituting a halt in fighting, a partial Israeli pullback to a “yellow line,” prisoner swaps, expanded aid, and the release of hostages. A second phase of the deal, yet to be negotiated, is expected to address further Israeli withdrawal, Hamas’s disarmament, and the establishment of new security and governance arrangements in Gaza.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if an official agreement for the second phase of the Israel–Hamas ceasefire, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Israel and Hamas by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes,\" regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.\n\nFor purposes of this market, a “second phase” ceasefire agreement refers to a deal publicly acknowledged by both Israel and Hamas (directly or via recognized mediators such as the U.S., Egypt, or Qatar) that goes beyond the Phase 1 initial truce and includes commitments towards a comprehensive or “full” ceasefire.  Any agreement that is publicly described by the parties, or by mediators on their behalf, as the completion of “Phase 2” of the ceasefire will qualify, regardless of whether it includes further Israeli withdrawals beyond the “yellow line,” or agreements by Hamas to disarm.\n\nAn extension or continuation of the Phase 1 arrangement alone will not qualify.\n\nThis market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Israel and Hamas, however a wide consensus of credible media reporting will also qualify.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official announcements from both Israel and Hamas",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "credible media reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 26,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 202282.328875,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "reach",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ceasefire",
        "gaza",
        "hamas",
        "israel",
        "israel hamas ceasefire"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-JPCZJWVXK2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-W8BMWJ29B8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x377e97f2e52fffc385d9563299a3d4f40ad4019d20750dc14e21243f025ac490",
      "question": "Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31?",
      "description": "On October 8, an agreement on an initial ceasefire (Phase 1) was announced, constituting a halt in fighting, a partial Israeli pullback to a “yellow line,” prisoner swaps, expanded aid, and the release of hostages. A second phase of the deal, yet to be negotiated, is expected to address further Israeli withdrawal, Hamas’s disarmament, and the establishment of new security and governance arrangements in Gaza.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if an official agreement for the second phase of the Israel–Hamas ceasefire, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Israel ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31: The UMA Optimistic Oracle determines by February 1, 2026, whether the listed parties announce a mutually agreed official second-phase agreement addressing the specified governance and security terms.",
      "close_at": "2025-10-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-01-01T07:49:49Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "On October 8, an agreement on an initial ceasefire (Phase 1) was announced, constituting a halt in fighting, a partial Israeli pullback to a “yellow line,” prisoner swaps, expanded aid, and the release of hostages. A second phase of the deal, yet to be negotiated, is expected to address further Israeli withdrawal, Hamas’s disarmament, and the establishment of new security and governance arrangements in Gaza.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if an official agreement for the second phase of the Israel–Hamas ceasefire, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Israel and Hamas by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes,\" regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.\n\nFor purposes of this market, a “second phase” ceasefire agreement refers to a deal publicly acknowledged by both Israel and Hamas (directly or via recognized mediators such as the U.S., Egypt, or Qatar) that goes beyond the Phase 1 initial truce and includes commitments towards a comprehensive or “full” ceasefire.  Any agreement that is publicly described by the parties, or by mediators on their behalf, as the completion of “Phase 2” of the ceasefire will qualify, regardless of whether it includes further Israeli withdrawals beyond the “yellow line,” or agreements by Hamas to disarm.\n\nAn extension or continuation of the Phase 1 arrangement alone will not qualify.\n\nThis market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Israel and Hamas, however a wide consensus of credible media reporting will also qualify.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official announcements from both Israel and Hamas",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "credible media reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 26,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 363917.756022,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "reach",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ceasefire",
        "gaza",
        "hamas",
        "israel",
        "israel hamas ceasefire"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-M1H69RNBN3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-W8BMWJ29B8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x50b1c8b829e10c67c700306d1a9192043c20d1826024e8eb2c630e67695dfb3d",
      "question": "Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by November 30?",
      "description": "On October 8, an agreement on an initial ceasefire (Phase 1) was announced, constituting a halt in fighting, a partial Israeli pullback to a “yellow line,” prisoner swaps, expanded aid, and the release of hostages. A second phase of the deal, yet to be negotiated, is expected to address further Israeli withdrawal, Hamas’s disarmament, and the establishment of new security and governance arrangements in Gaza.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if an official agreement for the second phase of the Israel–Hamas ceasefire, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Israel ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "November 30: The UMA Optimistic Oracle determines by February 1, 2026, whether the listed parties announce a mutually agreed official second-phase agreement addressing the specified governance and security terms.",
      "close_at": "2025-11-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2025-12-01T07:29:42Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "On October 8, an agreement on an initial ceasefire (Phase 1) was announced, constituting a halt in fighting, a partial Israeli pullback to a “yellow line,” prisoner swaps, expanded aid, and the release of hostages. A second phase of the deal, yet to be negotiated, is expected to address further Israeli withdrawal, Hamas’s disarmament, and the establishment of new security and governance arrangements in Gaza.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if an official agreement for the second phase of the Israel–Hamas ceasefire, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Israel and Hamas by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes,\" regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.\n\nFor purposes of this market, a “second phase” ceasefire agreement refers to a deal publicly acknowledged by both Israel and Hamas (directly or via recognized mediators such as the U.S., Egypt, or Qatar) that goes beyond the Phase 1 initial truce and includes commitments towards a comprehensive or “full” ceasefire.  Any agreement that is publicly described by the parties, or by mediators on their behalf, as the completion of “Phase 2” of the ceasefire will qualify, regardless of whether it includes further Israeli withdrawals beyond the “yellow line,” or agreements by Hamas to disarm.\n\nAn extension or continuation of the Phase 1 arrangement alone will not qualify.\n\nThis market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Israel and Hamas, however a wide consensus of credible media reporting will also qualify.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official announcements from both Israel and Hamas",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "credible media reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 26,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 373237.470783,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "reach",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ceasefire",
        "gaza",
        "hamas",
        "israel",
        "israel hamas ceasefire"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-6N0BRR3VR4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-W8BMWJ29B8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xcc8881721c1d263ee34fbe821d6b2611bb99c6b04a348469ac3353a200921418",
      "question": "Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by March 31?",
      "description": "On October 8, an agreement on an initial ceasefire (Phase 1) was announced, constituting a halt in fighting, a partial Israeli pullback to a “yellow line,” prisoner swaps, expanded aid, and the release of hostages. A second phase of the deal, yet to be negotiated, is expected to address further Israeli withdrawal, Hamas’s disarmament, and the establishment of new security and governance arrangements in Gaza.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if an official agreement for the second phase of the Israel–Hamas ceasefire, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Israel ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "March 31, 2026: The UMA Optimistic Oracle determines by February 1, 2026, whether the listed parties announce a mutually agreed official second-phase agreement addressing the specified governance and security terms.",
      "close_at": "2026-03-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-04-01T08:09:19Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "On October 8, an agreement on an initial ceasefire (Phase 1) was announced, constituting a halt in fighting, a partial Israeli pullback to a “yellow line,” prisoner swaps, expanded aid, and the release of hostages. A second phase of the deal, yet to be negotiated, is expected to address further Israeli withdrawal, Hamas’s disarmament, and the establishment of new security and governance arrangements in Gaza.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if an official agreement for the second phase of the Israel–Hamas ceasefire, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Israel and Hamas by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes,\" regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.\n\nFor purposes of this market, a “second phase” ceasefire agreement refers to a deal publicly acknowledged by both Israel and Hamas (directly or via recognized mediators such as the U.S., Egypt, or Qatar) that goes beyond the Phase 1 initial truce and includes commitments towards a comprehensive or “full” ceasefire.  Any agreement that is publicly described by the parties, or by mediators on their behalf, as the completion of “Phase 2” of the ceasefire will qualify, regardless of whether it includes further Israeli withdrawals beyond the “yellow line,” or agreements by Hamas to disarm.\n\nAn extension or continuation of the Phase 1 arrangement alone will not qualify.\n\nThis market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Israel and Hamas, however a wide consensus of credible media reporting will also qualify.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official announcements from both Israel and Hamas",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "credible media reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 26,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.003,
      "implied_probability": 0.003,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 599461.1816790025,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "reach",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ceasefire",
        "gaza",
        "hamas",
        "israel",
        "israel hamas ceasefire"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-QL0BJZLTN9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-W8BMWJ29B8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x7ca44055a9211156d986ae3071ca03b1fb3c5e1b4b339afd6859b6fdd865b689",
      "question": "Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by January 31?",
      "description": "On October 8, an agreement on an initial ceasefire (Phase 1) was announced, constituting a halt in fighting, a partial Israeli pullback to a “yellow line,” prisoner swaps, expanded aid, and the release of hostages. A second phase of the deal, yet to be negotiated, is expected to address further Israeli withdrawal, Hamas’s disarmament, and the establishment of new security and governance arrangements in Gaza.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if an official agreement for the second phase of the Israel–Hamas ceasefire, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Israel ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "January 31: The UMA Optimistic Oracle determines by February 1, 2026, whether the listed parties announce a mutually agreed official second-phase agreement addressing the specified governance and security terms.",
      "close_at": "2026-03-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-02-01T08:05:48Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "On October 8, an agreement on an initial ceasefire (Phase 1) was announced, constituting a halt in fighting, a partial Israeli pullback to a “yellow line,” prisoner swaps, expanded aid, and the release of hostages. A second phase of the deal, yet to be negotiated, is expected to address further Israeli withdrawal, Hamas’s disarmament, and the establishment of new security and governance arrangements in Gaza.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if an official agreement for the second phase of the Israel–Hamas ceasefire, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Israel and Hamas by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes,\" regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.\n\nFor purposes of this market, a “second phase” ceasefire agreement refers to a deal publicly acknowledged by both Israel and Hamas (directly or via recognized mediators such as the U.S., Egypt, or Qatar) that goes beyond the Phase 1 initial truce and includes commitments towards a comprehensive or “full” ceasefire.  Any agreement that is publicly described by the parties, or by mediators on their behalf, as the completion of “Phase 2” of the ceasefire will qualify, regardless of whether it includes further Israeli withdrawals beyond the “yellow line,” or agreements by Hamas to disarm.\n\nAn extension or continuation of the Phase 1 arrangement alone will not qualify.\n\nThis market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Israel and Hamas, however a wide consensus of credible media reporting will also qualify.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official announcements from both Israel and Hamas",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "credible media reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 26,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 717602.46011,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "reach",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ceasefire",
        "gaza",
        "hamas",
        "israel",
        "israel hamas ceasefire"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KL01R68205",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-W8BMWJ29B8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "957645",
      "question": "Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by February 28?",
      "description": "On October 8, an agreement on an initial ceasefire (Phase 1) was announced, constituting a halt in fighting, a partial Israeli pullback to a “yellow line,” prisoner swaps, expanded aid, and the release of hostages. A second phase of the deal, yet to be negotiated, is expected to address further Israeli withdrawal, Hamas’s disarmament, and the establishment of new security and governance arrangements in Gaza.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if an official agreement for the second phase of the Israel–Hamas ceasefire, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Israel ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "February 28: The UMA Optimistic Oracle determines by February 1, 2026, whether the listed parties announce a mutually agreed official second-phase agreement addressing the specified governance and security terms.",
      "close_at": "2026-03-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-03-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "On October 8, an agreement on an initial ceasefire (Phase 1) was announced, constituting a halt in fighting, a partial Israeli pullback to a “yellow line,” prisoner swaps, expanded aid, and the release of hostages. A second phase of the deal, yet to be negotiated, is expected to address further Israeli withdrawal, Hamas’s disarmament, and the establishment of new security and governance arrangements in Gaza.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if an official agreement for the second phase of the Israel–Hamas ceasefire, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Israel and Hamas by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes,\" regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.\n\nFor purposes of this market, a “second phase” ceasefire agreement refers to a deal publicly acknowledged by both Israel and Hamas (directly or via recognized mediators such as the U.S., Egypt, or Qatar) that goes beyond the Phase 1 initial truce and includes commitments towards a comprehensive or “full” ceasefire.  Any agreement that is publicly described by the parties, or by mediators on their behalf, as the completion of “Phase 2” of the ceasefire will qualify, regardless of whether it includes further Israeli withdrawals beyond the “yellow line,” or agreements by Hamas to disarm.\n\nAn extension or continuation of the Phase 1 arrangement alone will not qualify.\n\nThis market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Israel and Hamas, however a wide consensus of credible media reporting will also qualify.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official announcements from both Israel and Hamas",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "credible media reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 26,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "reach",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ceasefire",
        "gaza",
        "hamas",
        "israel",
        "israel hamas ceasefire"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-6TJQCT7631",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-W8BMWJ29B8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xdff611d904b9e981ed95cf5962de3057cb15c7b793c695820cfee7a631a806dd",
      "question": "Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30?",
      "description": "On October 8, an agreement on an initial ceasefire (Phase 1) was announced, constituting a halt in fighting, a partial Israeli pullback to a “yellow line,” prisoner swaps, expanded aid, and the release of hostages. A second phase of the deal, yet to be negotiated, is expected to address further Israeli withdrawal, Hamas’s disarmament, and the establishment of new security and governance arrangements in Gaza.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if an official agreement for the second phase of the Israel–Hamas ceasefire, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Israel ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 30: The UMA Optimistic Oracle determines by February 1, 2026, whether the listed parties announce a mutually agreed official second-phase agreement addressing the specified governance and security terms.",
      "close_at": "2026-03-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-02T14:48:05Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "On October 8, an agreement on an initial ceasefire (Phase 1) was announced, constituting a halt in fighting, a partial Israeli pullback to a “yellow line,” prisoner swaps, expanded aid, and the release of hostages. A second phase of the deal, yet to be negotiated, is expected to address further Israeli withdrawal, Hamas’s disarmament, and the establishment of new security and governance arrangements in Gaza.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if an official agreement for the second phase of the Israel–Hamas ceasefire, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Israel and Hamas by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes,\" regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.\n\nFor purposes of this market, a “second phase” ceasefire agreement refers to a deal publicly acknowledged by both Israel and Hamas (directly or via recognized mediators such as the U.S., Egypt, or Qatar) that goes beyond the Phase 1 initial truce and includes commitments towards a comprehensive or “full” ceasefire.  Any agreement that is publicly described by the parties, or by mediators on their behalf, as the completion of “Phase 2” of the ceasefire will qualify, regardless of whether it includes further Israeli withdrawals beyond the “yellow line,” or agreements by Hamas to disarm.\n\nAn extension or continuation of the Phase 1 arrangement alone will not qualify.\n\nThis market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Israel and Hamas, however a wide consensus of credible media reporting will also qualify.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official announcements from both Israel and Hamas",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "credible media reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 26,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 512826.8677440007,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "reach",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ceasefire",
        "gaza",
        "hamas",
        "israel",
        "israel hamas ceasefire"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-6TJQCT7631",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-02T14:48:05Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-6N0BRR3VR4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-04-01T08:09:19Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KL01R68205",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": null,
      "deadline_at": "2026-03-31T00:00:00Z",
      "occurred_basis": "deadline",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-QL0BJZLTN9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-02-01T08:05:48Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-JPCZJWVXK2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-01-01T07:49:49Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-M1H69RNBN3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2025-12-01T07:29:42Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-BB6X0PZ6V7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2025-11-01T06:50:12Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-W8BMWJ29B8",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}