{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-MD52814CV8",
  "slug": "israel-x-hezbollah-diplomatic-meeting-byptptpt-20260706181026740",
  "question": "Will Israel and Hezbollah hold a diplomatic meeting by 2026?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "israel-hezbollah",
    "middle-east-conflict",
    "diplomatic-negotiations",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Israel and Hezbollah hold a direct diplomatic meeting by specified deadlines. The July 31 contract closes first; the August 31 contract extends the window by one month. Both resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle. The staggered structure prices incremental probability across two binary horizons.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-KHVG1D7ZJ8",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.034,
    "implied_probability": 0.034
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-6J10F2PSF6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-MD52814CV8",
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      "platform_market_id": "0x12ce245bfe4c5dbedc56b85fccefc4f2d8c6d74b40cd340775afeb3c3308a279",
      "question": "Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of Israel and Hezbollah who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Israel-Hezbollah relations on behalf of their governments/leadership structures. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with th",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "July 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-01T07:06:21Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of Israel and Hezbollah who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Israel-Hezbollah relations on behalf of their governments/leadership structures. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. \n\nBrief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.\n\nThe meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah leadership, and a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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        "sources": [
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            "name": "official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah leadership",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 24,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "implied_probability": 0.009,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 7365.184815999999,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "diplomacy",
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        "israel hezbollah diplomatic",
        "middle-east"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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      "question": "Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of Israel and Hezbollah who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Israel-Hezbollah relations on behalf of their governments/leadership structures. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with th",
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      "close_at": "2026-07-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of Israel and Hezbollah who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Israel-Hezbollah relations on behalf of their governments/leadership structures. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. \n\nBrief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.\n\nThe meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah leadership, and a consensus of credible reporting.",
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "tags": [
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  "resolution_log": [
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-6J10F2PSF6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": null,
      "deadline_at": "2026-08-01T07:06:21Z",
      "occurred_basis": "deadline",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-04",
      "source": "platform_api",
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  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-MD52814CV8",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}