{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
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  "event_id": "CM-EVT-6BZBWX4DV3",
  "slug": "israel-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by",
  "question": "Israel x Iran permanent peace deal in 2026? (multi-deadline series)",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "middle-east-conflict",
    "israel-iran",
    "peace-negotiations",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the probability of a permanent Israel-Iran peace deal by escalating deadlines through December 31, 2026. Each contract is a binary outcome question; together they form an implied term structure of geopolitical risk. All six markets resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against the same underlying condition: a formal agreement ending military hostilities. The staggered expiries let traders express views on deal timing, not just deal probability.",
  "venues_covered": [
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-016245",
  "current_primary_mark": {
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    "implied_probability": 0
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  "created_at": "2026-05-27T18:15:21.695540+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-05-27T18:15:21.695540+00:00",
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      "platform_market_id": "0xe12f3636e12dd4d423a4dcaafec802726a6d853980ec23f61798b0c656fb46fb",
      "question": "Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "UMA Optimistic Oracle determines whether Israel and Iran have agreed to a permanent peace deal ending military hostilities by May 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-04-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-04-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:\n\n- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.\n\n- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.\n\nThe inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:\n\n- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.\n\n- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.\n\nThe inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
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      "question": "Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?",
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-6BZBWX4DV3",
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      "question": "Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?",
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-6BZBWX4DV3",
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      "question": "Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by September 30, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.",
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}