{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-V8TMF1B4H1",
  "slug": "israel-x-turkey-military-clash-before-2027",
  "question": "Will Israel and Turkey have a military clash before 2027?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "middle-east",
    "military-conflict",
    "israel-turkey",
    "2026",
    "bilateral-tensions"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether Israel and Turkey engage in direct military conflict before January 1, 2027. Resolution requires confirmed reporting from major international news sources and intelligence agencies. Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle governs settlement, with any dispute subject to decentralized adjudication. The binary structure leaves ambiguity around what constitutes a qualifying \"direct engagement\" versus a proxy or indirect incident.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-6KQGBS26M0",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.11,
    "implied_probability": 0.11
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-6KQGBS26M0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-V8TMF1B4H1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xe34a08b2a8d0f9e5033dc1bc1ee153509e414196c3e8044d5e99b64b974eeea6",
      "question": "Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of Israel and Turkey by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA \"military encounter\" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qual",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Major international news sources and intelligence agencies reporting direct military engagement between Israeli and Turkish armed forces by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of Israel and Turkey by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA \"military encounter\" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a \"Yes\" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 10,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "discretionary_trigger_no_source",
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.11,
      "implied_probability": 0.11,
      "volume_24h_usd": 48.75,
      "volume_total_usd": 306720.1025470003,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "geopolitics",
        "israel",
        "israel turkey military",
        "military",
        "turkey"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-V8TMF1B4H1",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}