{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-S1LP9PHWP7",
  "slug": "israeli-forces-enter-beirut-by-475",
  "question": "Will Israeli forces enter Beirut in 2026? (multi-deadline series)",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "israel-lebanon",
    "military-conflict",
    "middle-east",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Israeli ground forces enter Beirut across three sequential monthly deadlines: May 31, June 30, and July 31, 2026. Each is a binary outcome market on Polymarket; later deadlines nest inside earlier ones, creating an implicit probability term structure. A Yes on May implies Yes on June and July, so spread differentials price the marginal probability of entry within each monthly window. Resolution follows Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, with no named institutional data source specified beyond the oracle's own dispute process.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-7Q1P222FK7",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.012,
    "implied_probability": 0.012
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  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-S1LP9PHWP7",
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      "platform_market_id": "0x30114a172dbeb6c43a21f3a47c3bea210dbc218b6eb9d2f919fca4a63603e654",
      "question": "Israeli forces enter Beirut by May 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality of Beirut in Lebanon for military purposes by the listed day 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within the municipality of Beirut will count.\n\nUndercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be photo and video evidence; however, a consensus of credible reporting m",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "May 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-05-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-01T04:54:18Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality of Beirut in Lebanon for military purposes by the listed day 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within the municipality of Beirut will count.\n\nUndercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be photo and video evidence; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n\nIf the date/time of a qualifying entry cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to \"No\" regardless of whether it was later confirmed to have taken place.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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        "sources": null,
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 26,
        "caps": [
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          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 11200.372994000001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "beirut",
        "israel",
        "israeli forces entry",
        "lebanon",
        "military"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SZ9L3NVJH1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-S1LP9PHWP7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
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      "question": "Israeli forces enter Beirut by June 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality of Beirut in Lebanon for military purposes by the listed day 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within the municipality of Beirut will count.\n\nUndercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be photo and video evidence; however, a consensus of credible reporting m",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 30: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-03T22:07:37Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality of Beirut in Lebanon for military purposes by the listed day 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within the municipality of Beirut will count.\n\nUndercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be photo and video evidence; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n\nIf the date/time of a qualifying entry cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to \"No\" regardless of whether it was later confirmed to have taken place.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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        "sources": null,
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 26,
        "caps": [
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          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "implied_probability": 0.004,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 52159.65687500005,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "israel",
        "israeli forces entry",
        "lebanon",
        "military"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-7Q1P222FK7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-S1LP9PHWP7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x56aec18bb914bc38290f26245e30e3291b6610a8d1e9c4e8be3d161c7be7c687",
      "question": "Israeli forces enter Beirut by July 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality of Beirut in Lebanon for military purposes by the listed day 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within the municipality of Beirut will count.\n\nUndercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be photo and video evidence; however, a consensus of credible reporting m",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "July 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality of Beirut in Lebanon for military purposes by the listed day 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within the municipality of Beirut will count.\n\nUndercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be photo and video evidence; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n\nIf the date/time of a qualifying entry cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to \"No\" regardless of whether it was later confirmed to have taken place.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 26,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.012,
      "implied_probability": 0.012,
      "volume_24h_usd": 122.169315,
      "volume_total_usd": 64646.32726799999,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "beirut",
        "israel",
        "israeli forces entry",
        "lebanon",
        "military"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
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  "resolution_log": [
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SZ9L3NVJH1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-03T22:07:37Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-45YTHM2WR9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-01T04:54:18Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
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  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-S1LP9PHWP7",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}