{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-19YC0MGZP4",
  "slug": "israeli-forces-enter-nabatieh-by",
  "question": "Israeli forces enter Nabatieh in 2026? (multi-deadline series)",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "israel-lebanon",
    "military-operations",
    "2026",
    "middle-east-conflict"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Israeli ground forces physically enter Nabatieh municipality in Lebanon, by two sequential deadlines. The May 31 contract is a strict near-term binary; the June 7 contract extends the same trigger by one week. A positive outcome on the earlier date would logically collapse the later market to near-certainty. Both resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle using verified photo and video evidence of Israeli military personnel on the ground.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-LQDDCP1NK4",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0,
    "implied_probability": 0
  },
  "created_at": "2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Y0YS8M9CQ1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-19YC0MGZP4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x80a3df99074e3e9d50e4b0efa6794b04729218283e3d237696611757051be763",
      "question": "Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by May 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality of Nabatieh in Lebanon for military purposes by the listed day 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within the municipality of Nabatieh will count.\n\nUndercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be photo and video evidence; however, a consensus of credible reporti",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Photo and video evidence of Israeli military personnel physically present on the ground in Nabatieh municipality, Lebanon, corroborated by credible news reporting.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-07T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-05-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality of Nabatieh in Lebanon for military purposes by the listed day 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within the municipality of Nabatieh will count.\n\nUndercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be photo and video evidence; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n\nIf the date/time of a qualifying entry cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to \"No\" regardless of whether it was later confirmed to have taken place.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 24,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 725.357825,
      "volume_total_usd": 13222.310667,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "israel",
        "israeli forces entry",
        "lebanon",
        "military",
        "nabatieh"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LQDDCP1NK4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-19YC0MGZP4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x283d4efb530a7ff6714ac7ae4fc9d98259f620da36f87be35466196d2c6de8bd",
      "question": "Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality of Nabatieh in Lebanon for military purposes by the listed day 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within the municipality of Nabatieh will count.\n\nUndercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be photo and video evidence; however, a consensus of credible reporti",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Photo and video evidence of Israeli military personnel physically present on the ground in Nabatieh municipality, Lebanon, corroborated by credible news reporting.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-07T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-07T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality of Nabatieh in Lebanon for military purposes by the listed day 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within the municipality of Nabatieh will count.\n\nUndercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be photo and video evidence; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n\nIf the date/time of a qualifying entry cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to \"No\" regardless of whether it was later confirmed to have taken place.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 24,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 8334.349711000003,
      "volume_total_usd": 37763.381894000115,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "israel",
        "israeli forces entry",
        "lebanon",
        "military",
        "nabatieh"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LQDDCP1NK4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-07T00:00:00Z",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-06-12",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Y0YS8M9CQ1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-05-31T00:00:00Z",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-19YC0MGZP4",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}