{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-Z7Q5H6S0Q1",
  "slug": "israeli-forces-enter-tyre-by",
  "question": "Israeli forces enter Tyre in 2026? (multi-deadline series)",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "israel-lebanon",
    "military-operations",
    "middle-east-conflict",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "Both markets track whether Israeli ground forces physically enter Tyre municipality in Lebanon. The May 31 contract is a shorter-dated strike; the June 7 contract extends the same binary outcome by one week. Both resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle using photo and video evidence corroborated by credible news sources. The nested deadline structure means the June 7 contract subsumes the May 31 signal.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-29NDLLF226",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0,
    "implied_probability": 0
  },
  "created_at": "2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-M9GLVJCC37",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Z7Q5H6S0Q1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xd7e392744a6e9335791bca4f5497c2ee04e6eb71f68b26ff9dac8a5e1e788090",
      "question": "Israeli forces enter Tyre by May 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality of Tyre in Lebanon for military purposes by the listed day 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within the municipality of Tyre will count.\n\nUndercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be photo and video evidence; however, a consensus of credible reporting may a",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Photo and video evidence of Israeli military personnel on the ground in Tyre municipality, corroborated by credible news reporting, by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-07T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-05-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality of Tyre in Lebanon for military purposes by the listed day 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within the municipality of Tyre will count.\n\nUndercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be photo and video evidence; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n\nIf the date/time of a qualifying entry cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to \"No\" regardless of whether it was later confirmed to have taken place.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 24,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 235.49002,
      "volume_total_usd": 2433.1810570000007,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "geopolitics",
        "israel",
        "israeli forces entry",
        "lebanon",
        "military",
        "tyre"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-29NDLLF226",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Z7Q5H6S0Q1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x91ab29a404573c337ea18577ab66df31f22743ad687adc04fffbc8b9ef13a4ae",
      "question": "Israeli forces enter Tyre by June 7?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality of Tyre in Lebanon for military purposes by the listed day 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within the municipality of Tyre will count.\n\nUndercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be photo and video evidence; however, a consensus of credible reporting may a",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Photo and video evidence of Israeli military personnel on the ground in Tyre municipality, corroborated by credible news reporting, by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-07T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-07T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality of Tyre in Lebanon for military purposes by the listed day 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within the municipality of Tyre will count.\n\nUndercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be photo and video evidence; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n\nIf the date/time of a qualifying entry cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to \"No\" regardless of whether it was later confirmed to have taken place.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 24,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 2040.500511,
      "volume_total_usd": 11490.236781999996,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "geopolitics",
        "israel",
        "israeli forces entry",
        "lebanon",
        "military",
        "tyre"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-29NDLLF226",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-07T00:00:00Z",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-06-12",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-M9GLVJCC37",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-05-31T00:00:00Z",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
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  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-Z7Q5H6S0Q1",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}