{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
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  "event_id": "CM-EVT-3C6QVGS040",
  "slug": "james-fishback-vote-share-in-2026-florida-republican-governor-primary-20260701214154078",
  "question": "Will James Fishback win less than 10% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "elections",
    "florida-2026",
    "republican-primary",
    "vote-share",
    "gubernatorial"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track James Fishback's vote share in the 2026 Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary, scheduled for August 18, 2026. All six markets are on Polymarket and together form a mutually exclusive, exhaustive distribution across discrete vote-share tiers from below 10% to 30% or above. Each tier resolves as a binary outcome; reading them collectively implies an implied probability distribution over Fishback's final result. Resolution relies on Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, using official Florida election returns as the authoritative source.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-JF4WRYTBY6",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.76,
    "implied_probability": 0.76
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-JF4WRYTBY6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3C6QVGS040",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xe9e713e3d02d67100e35716868238b3824a060ae6c716f310cacc8c39c6a30d0",
      "question": "Will James Fishback win less than 10% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?",
      "description": "Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the share of valid votes James Fishback wins in the 2026 Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nIf the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official statewi",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Fishback <10%: The named candidate's vote share in the 2026 Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary, as reported by the State of Florida Division of Elections by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-18T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-18T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the share of valid votes James Fishback wins in the 2026 Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nIf the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official statewide results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.\n\nIf a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dos.fl.gov/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "dos.fl.gov",
            "url": "https://dos.fl.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Florida Department of State",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Florida Department of State",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.76,
      "implied_probability": 0.76,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1912.8141640000001,
      "volume_total_usd": 22993.555300999986,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 10,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "florida",
        "governor",
        "james fishback",
        "republican primary"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-P7N0GJZWS9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3C6QVGS040",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x91836772753996ff5241f027990028192cc55b016c52e5d6cadb9d6a25f07782",
      "question": "Will James Fishback win 10–15% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?",
      "description": "Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the share of valid votes James Fishback wins in the 2026 Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nIf the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official statewi",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Fishback 10–15%: The named candidate's vote share in the 2026 Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary, as reported by the State of Florida Division of Elections by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-18T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-18T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the share of valid votes James Fishback wins in the 2026 Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nIf the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official statewide results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.\n\nIf a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dos.fl.gov/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "dos.fl.gov",
            "url": "https://dos.fl.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Florida Department of State",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Florida Department of State",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.12,
      "implied_probability": 0.12,
      "volume_24h_usd": 85.34,
      "volume_total_usd": 519.1734789999998,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 10,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "florida",
        "governor",
        "james fishback",
        "republican primary"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-3RRQ908NJ4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3C6QVGS040",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x5207636520ade304f8b4645031844c6d11cdc8f64cd8e06ec086bc01c714d092",
      "question": "Will James Fishback win 15–20% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?",
      "description": "Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the share of valid votes James Fishback wins in the 2026 Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nIf the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official statewi",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Fishback 15–20%: The named candidate's vote share in the 2026 Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary, as reported by the State of Florida Division of Elections by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-18T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-18T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the share of valid votes James Fishback wins in the 2026 Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nIf the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official statewide results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.\n\nIf a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dos.fl.gov/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "dos.fl.gov",
            "url": "https://dos.fl.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Florida Department of State",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Florida Department of State",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.09,
      "implied_probability": 0.09,
      "volume_24h_usd": 85.34,
      "volume_total_usd": 694.51472,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 15,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "florida",
        "governor",
        "james fishback",
        "republican primary"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-FSR4GXPBH2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3C6QVGS040",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x22df65a19c14dba65e7f8d11e9beee80a1df8d23e62b8de1337b82415ecb4151",
      "question": "Will James Fishback win 20–25% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?",
      "description": "Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the share of valid votes James Fishback wins in the 2026 Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nIf the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official statewi",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Fishback 20–25%: The named candidate's vote share in the 2026 Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary, as reported by the State of Florida Division of Elections by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-18T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-18T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the share of valid votes James Fishback wins in the 2026 Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nIf the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official statewide results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.\n\nIf a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dos.fl.gov/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "dos.fl.gov",
            "url": "https://dos.fl.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Florida Department of State",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "Florida Department of State",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.02,
      "implied_probability": 0.02,
      "volume_24h_usd": 85.34,
      "volume_total_usd": 934.3569459999999,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 20,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "florida",
        "governor",
        "james fishback",
        "republican primary"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-C20V89Q4T7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3C6QVGS040",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x255f318d41652860cbd71fff6bb483ce014e1d1fcc87c14738f899766686dc66",
      "question": "Will James Fishback win 25–30% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?",
      "description": "Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the share of valid votes James Fishback wins in the 2026 Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nIf the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official statewi",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Fishback 25–30%: The named candidate's vote share in the 2026 Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary, as reported by the State of Florida Division of Elections by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-18T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-18T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the share of valid votes James Fishback wins in the 2026 Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nIf the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official statewide results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.\n\nIf a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dos.fl.gov/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "dos.fl.gov",
            "url": "https://dos.fl.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Florida Department of State",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "Florida Department of State",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
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        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.009,
      "implied_probability": 0.009,
      "volume_24h_usd": 45.34,
      "volume_total_usd": 413.4375999999999,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 25,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "florida",
        "governor",
        "james fishback",
        "republican primary"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NPV7B4SZX0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3C6QVGS040",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x3576911937ff15d8efe4ee7b08ad9e07072305339595874f06b4a50cb4a38cda",
      "question": "Will James Fishback at least 30% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?",
      "description": "Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the share of valid votes James Fishback wins in the 2026 Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nIf the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official statewi",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Fishback 30%+: The named candidate's vote share in the 2026 Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary, as reported by the State of Florida Division of Elections by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-18T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-18T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the share of valid votes James Fishback wins in the 2026 Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nIf the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official statewide results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.\n\nIf a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dos.fl.gov/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "dos.fl.gov",
            "url": "https://dos.fl.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Florida Department of State",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
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        "source_of_record": "Florida Department of State",
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        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.016,
      "implied_probability": 0.016,
      "volume_24h_usd": 85.34,
      "volume_total_usd": 451.14369999999985,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 30,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "florida",
        "governor",
        "james fishback",
        "republican primary"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
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  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-3C6QVGS040",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}