{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-T53Z8XK365",
  "slug": "japan-gdp-growth-in-q2-2026-qoq-annualized",
  "question": "Will Japan's GDP growth in Q2 2026 be positive on a quarter-over-quarter annualized basis?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "japan-economy",
    "gdp-growth",
    "q2-2026",
    "economic-data",
    "quarterly-metrics"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track Japan's Q2 2026 GDP growth rate, annualized on a quarter-over-quarter basis. Polymarket structures the event as ten discrete binary contracts, each covering an 0.8-percentage-point range from below -2.4% to above 4.0%. Together they form an implied probability distribution over the full outcome space. Resolution relies on the Japan Cabinet Office's First Preliminary Estimates release on August 17, 2026, verified through Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-X597FTDJX3",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.31,
    "implied_probability": 0.31
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RPY789P244",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-T53Z8XK365",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xd961b1d119e9837f4af4246046b4cff21d1f77df3f95a907a68e06f00f69bb74",
      "question": "Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be less than -2.4%?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on August 17, 2026.\n\nThe relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "<-2.4%: Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP First Preliminary Estimates release on August 17, 2026 resolves the annualized quarter-over-quarter real GDP growth rate for Q2 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-17T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-17T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on August 17, 2026.\n\nThe relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.\n\nThe GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nIf no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.\n\nNote: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.\n\nNote: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "esri.cao.go.jp",
            "url": "https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "esri.cao.go.jp",
            "url": "https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.015,
      "implied_probability": 0.015,
      "volume_24h_usd": 5,
      "volume_total_usd": 1444.2491309999998,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": -2.4,
      "question_id": "CMX-3215BFFD01",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "economic-growth",
        "gdp",
        "japan",
        "japan gdp growth",
        "q2-2026"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-7GFFQFG826",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-T53Z8XK365",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xb5a9284b1f28b83dc8ab3616f367dedfb11d702dc84d4580eea607b207df1b43",
      "question": "Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between -2.4% and -1.6%?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on August 17, 2026.\n\nThe relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "-2.4%– -1.6%: Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP First Preliminary Estimates release on August 17, 2026 resolves the annualized quarter-over-quarter real GDP growth rate for Q2 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-17T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-17T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on August 17, 2026.\n\nThe relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.\n\nThe GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nIf no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.\n\nNote: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.\n\nNote: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "esri.cao.go.jp",
            "url": "https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "esri.cao.go.jp",
            "url": "https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.04,
      "implied_probability": 0.04,
      "volume_24h_usd": 5,
      "volume_total_usd": 2398.904299,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": -2,
      "question_id": "CMX-05E5CF0108",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "economic-growth",
        "gdp",
        "japan",
        "japan gdp growth",
        "q2-2026"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-8C3D608G79",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-T53Z8XK365",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x76266477ece2ce4cb8fed893ada699175092cb0300d445e98fda427b05e06e54",
      "question": "Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between -1.6% and -0.8%?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on August 17, 2026.\n\nThe relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "-1.6%– -0.8%: Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP First Preliminary Estimates release on August 17, 2026 resolves the annualized quarter-over-quarter real GDP growth rate for Q2 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-17T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-17T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on August 17, 2026.\n\nThe relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.\n\nThe GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nIf no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.\n\nNote: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.\n\nNote: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "esri.cao.go.jp",
            "url": "https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "esri.cao.go.jp",
            "url": "https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.008,
      "implied_probability": 0.008,
      "volume_24h_usd": 5,
      "volume_total_usd": 2030.2246920000002,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": -1.2,
      "question_id": "CMX-05E5CF0108",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "economic-growth",
        "gdp",
        "japan",
        "japan gdp growth",
        "q2-2026"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-QFP9N1NJD4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-T53Z8XK365",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x6295305ea1e1d3d4ae99a9086fe7f3bca9a893874066af58996c1705679f3cce",
      "question": "Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between -0.8% and 0.0%?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on August 17, 2026.\n\nThe relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "-0.8%–0.0%: Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP First Preliminary Estimates release on August 17, 2026 resolves the annualized quarter-over-quarter real GDP growth rate for Q2 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-17T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-17T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on August 17, 2026.\n\nThe relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.\n\nThe GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nIf no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.\n\nNote: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.\n\nNote: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "esri.cao.go.jp",
            "url": "https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "esri.cao.go.jp",
            "url": "https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.11,
      "implied_probability": 0.11,
      "volume_24h_usd": 5,
      "volume_total_usd": 1722.302281,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": -0.4,
      "question_id": "CMX-05E5CF0108",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "economic-growth",
        "gdp",
        "japan",
        "japan gdp growth",
        "q2-2026"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-X597FTDJX3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-T53Z8XK365",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x0082737f1d0dc831a848e92b46fbf572f133dd535bfaf96cc123e5aa7577ce9c",
      "question": "Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.0% and 0.8%?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on August 17, 2026.\n\nThe relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "0.0%–0.8%: Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP First Preliminary Estimates release on August 17, 2026 resolves the annualized quarter-over-quarter real GDP growth rate for Q2 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-17T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-17T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on August 17, 2026.\n\nThe relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.\n\nThe GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nIf no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.\n\nNote: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.\n\nNote: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "esri.cao.go.jp",
            "url": "https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "esri.cao.go.jp",
            "url": "https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.31,
      "implied_probability": 0.31,
      "volume_24h_usd": 327.86665899999997,
      "volume_total_usd": 12483.091187999999,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 0.4,
      "question_id": "CMX-05E5CF0108",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "economic-growth",
        "gdp",
        "japan",
        "japan gdp growth",
        "q2-2026"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-T53Z8XK365",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xfcbef067579700f97b575e3a64945aeb788c8ae0c0e791804659426e2d913977",
      "question": "Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.8% and 1.6%?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on August 17, 2026.\n\nThe relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "0.8%–1.6%: Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP First Preliminary Estimates release on August 17, 2026 resolves the annualized quarter-over-quarter real GDP growth rate for Q2 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-17T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-17T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on August 17, 2026.\n\nThe relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.\n\nThe GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nIf no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.\n\nNote: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.\n\nNote: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "esri.cao.go.jp",
            "url": "https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "esri.cao.go.jp",
            "url": "https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.24,
      "implied_probability": 0.24,
      "volume_24h_usd": 421.28688000000017,
      "volume_total_usd": 10417.526192,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 1.2,
      "question_id": "CMX-05E5CF0108",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "gdp",
        "japan",
        "japan gdp growth",
        "q2-2026"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-T53Z8XK365",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xca63763d6aba6e9318362110d97fcc83944b539b3efbcabfb92b885485311057",
      "question": "Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 1.6% and 2.4%?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on August 17, 2026.\n\nThe relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "1.6%–2.4%: Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP First Preliminary Estimates release on August 17, 2026 resolves the annualized quarter-over-quarter real GDP growth rate for Q2 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-17T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-17T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on August 17, 2026.\n\nThe relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.\n\nThe GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nIf no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.\n\nNote: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.\n\nNote: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "esri.cao.go.jp",
            "url": "https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "esri.cao.go.jp",
            "url": "https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.07,
      "implied_probability": 0.07,
      "volume_24h_usd": 5,
      "volume_total_usd": 818.0279539999999,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 2,
      "question_id": "CMX-43A0490365",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "economic-growth",
        "gdp",
        "japan",
        "japan gdp growth",
        "q2-2026"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-T53Z8XK365",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xa713c77e80e02f19317218c274d612746f9e4e8f688f7bd3991f1c95ba81255b",
      "question": "Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 2.4% and 3.2%?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on August 17, 2026.\n\nThe relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "2.4%–3.2%: Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP First Preliminary Estimates release on August 17, 2026 resolves the annualized quarter-over-quarter real GDP growth rate for Q2 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-17T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-17T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on August 17, 2026.\n\nThe relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.\n\nThe GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nIf no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.\n\nNote: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.\n\nNote: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "esri.cao.go.jp",
            "url": "https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "esri.cao.go.jp",
            "url": "https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.053,
      "implied_probability": 0.053,
      "volume_24h_usd": 5,
      "volume_total_usd": 2735.054683,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 2.8,
      "question_id": "CMX-05E5CF0108",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "economic-growth",
        "gdp",
        "japan",
        "japan gdp growth",
        "q2-2026"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-T53Z8XK365",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x9a2b725e149e90b2e3827adff12cee4d183f392979a7d1cb4feabef3a0a6022e",
      "question": "Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 3.2% and 4.0%?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on August 17, 2026.\n\nThe relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "3.2%–4.0%: Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP First Preliminary Estimates release on August 17, 2026 resolves the annualized quarter-over-quarter real GDP growth rate for Q2 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-17T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-17T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on August 17, 2026.\n\nThe relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.\n\nThe GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nIf no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.\n\nNote: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.\n\nNote: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "esri.cao.go.jp",
            "url": "https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "esri.cao.go.jp",
            "url": "https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "implied_probability": 0.054,
      "volume_24h_usd": 5,
      "volume_total_usd": 531.423501,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 3.6,
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      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "gdp",
        "japan",
        "japan gdp growth",
        "q2-2026"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-T53Z8XK365",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x67ba24c656a6b140b3d8f27647263e9ad93f0ad8284a2d1139dab19e59f269b4",
      "question": "Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be at least 4.0%?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on August 17, 2026.\n\nThe relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "4.0%+: Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP First Preliminary Estimates release on August 17, 2026 resolves the annualized quarter-over-quarter real GDP growth rate for Q2 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-17T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-17T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on August 17, 2026.\n\nThe relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.\n\nThe GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nIf no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.\n\nNote: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.\n\nNote: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "esri.cao.go.jp",
            "url": "https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "esri.cao.go.jp",
            "url": "https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.059,
      "implied_probability": 0.059,
      "volume_24h_usd": 5,
      "volume_total_usd": 305.82011900000003,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4,
      "question_id": "CMX-4F502A13A8",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "economic-growth",
        "gdp",
        "japan",
        "japan gdp growth",
        "q2-2026"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
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  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-T53Z8XK365",
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}