{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-BR4DQ500T1",
  "slug": "jd-vance-out-as-vp-by",
  "question": "Will JD Vance be out as VP by 2026?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "trump",
    "vice-presidency",
    "us-government",
    "2026",
    "removal-or-resignation"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether JD Vance departs the Vice Presidency before four sequential deadlines in 2026. The June 15, June 30, July 31, and December 31 contracts form a term-structure of removal probability across the calendar year. Each contract is structured as a binary outcome, priced independently but correlated by the shared underlying event. All four resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-84YD29LMB1",
  "current_primary_mark": {
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    "implied_probability": 0.06,
    "as_of": null
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  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-L8HGSH86M7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-BR4DQ500T1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x986a3106842f52252f79a0732cde1a92d054f7f35911de94094aace22e31a282",
      "question": "JD Vance out as VP by June 15?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if JD Vance ceases to be Vice-President of the United States for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Vance's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nIf the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within th",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 15: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-16T06:06:58Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if JD Vance ceases to be Vice-President of the United States for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Vance's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nIf the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from JD Vance and the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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        "sources": [
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            "name": "official information from JD Vance and the government of the United States",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 48,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.006,
      "implied_probability": 0.006,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 27423.748436000016,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "jd vance vice",
        "jd-vance",
        "us-politics",
        "vice-president"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-87PN7L9ZH5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-BR4DQ500T1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x07e12d8b28123996c0e01a6c29ad3a86259e0059c0caca244df85f73cc1dbad9",
      "question": "JD Vance out as VP by June 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if JD Vance ceases to be Vice-President of the United States for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Vance's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nIf the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within th",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 30: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-01T06:12:38Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if JD Vance ceases to be Vice-President of the United States for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Vance's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nIf the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from JD Vance and the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "grade": "C",
        "score": 48,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.002,
      "implied_probability": 0.002,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 59521.24261199997,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "jd vance vice",
        "jd-vance",
        "us-politics",
        "vice-president"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-84YD29LMB1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-BR4DQ500T1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x8a30aa5cf51e1d166854a1cf26157b5ac76b5721d8d9f3f6f7be958e6fb132a1",
      "question": "JD Vance out as VP by December 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if JD Vance ceases to be Vice-President of the United States for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Vance's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nIf the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within th",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if JD Vance ceases to be Vice-President of the United States for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Vance's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nIf the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from JD Vance and the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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            "name": "official information from JD Vance and the government of the United States",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "score": 48,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "implied_probability": 0.06,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 5.126314,
      "volume_total_usd": 146362.421627,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "jd vance vice",
        "jd-vance",
        "us-politics",
        "vice-president"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-R8065L4PQ7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-BR4DQ500T1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x3db36d07bf43609dec666dcd0a303b6c70afebb9c3f609009f1b46a298a6c531",
      "question": "JD Vance out as VP by July 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if JD Vance ceases to be Vice-President of the United States for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Vance's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nIf the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within th",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "July 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-01T06:06:29Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if JD Vance ceases to be Vice-President of the United States for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Vance's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nIf the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from JD Vance and the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
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      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
        "jd vance vice",
        "jd-vance",
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        "vice-president"
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-R8065L4PQ7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
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      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
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      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
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  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-BR4DQ500T1",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}