{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-PNLTY8SDR0",
  "slug": "jimmy-lai-released-by-june-30",
  "question": "Will Jimmy Lai be released by June 30?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "hong-kong",
    "human-rights",
    "jimmy-lai",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This event tracks whether Hong Kong media founder Jimmy Lai will be released from custody by June 30, 2026. A single Polymarket binary resolves yes if Lai is freed before that date. Resolution follows Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, referencing Hong Kong's Department of Justice or correctional authorities' official records. No cross-platform structural contrast exists, as only one market is listed.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-VK8NB4KYT6",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0,
    "implied_probability": 0
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-VK8NB4KYT6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PNLTY8SDR0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x95c0d03797f22593b3b4a1750d1721b8a4b8e89b0899d2f4825046051a3681c9",
      "question": "Jimmy Lai released by June 30?",
      "description": "\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Jimmy Lai is released from custody by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf Lai is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to \"Yes\".\n\nIf Lai is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to \"Yes\".\n\nTransporting Lai to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes\". Extradition of Lai to another country where ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Hong Kong's Department of Justice or correctional authorities' official records determine whether Jimmy Lai has been released from state custody by June 30, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Jimmy Lai is released from custody by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf Lai is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to \"Yes\".\n\nIf Lai is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to \"Yes\".\n\nTransporting Lai to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes\". Extradition of Lai to another country where he remains in custody will also not count.\n\nTemporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from relevant government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from relevant government authorities or corrections departments",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 13.13121,
      "volume_total_usd": 317632.87876599986,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "hong kong",
        "imprisonment",
        "jimmy lai",
        "jimmy lai release",
        "release"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-VK8NB4KYT6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-PNLTY8SDR0",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}