{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-PNLTY8SDR0",
  "slug": "jimmy-lai-released-by-june-30",
  "question": "Will Jimmy Lai be released in 2026? (multi-deadline series)",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "hong-kong",
    "human-rights",
    "2026",
    "conditional-release",
    "international-political"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This event tracks whether Jimmy Lai, the Hong Kong media executive, is released from custody before specified deadlines. Both markets are on Polymarket and share the same binary structure, but differ on time horizon: one resolves June 30, 2026, the other December 31, 2026. The June market functions as an early conditional signal nested within the December market's window. Both resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-VK8NB4KYT6",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.001,
    "implied_probability": 0.001,
    "as_of": null
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-H968DFD8Y2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PNLTY8SDR0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x811c7a22311b8281253f66374e6b6755a67664763fd425b0f9a8badb8ad386e0",
      "question": "Jimmy Lai released by December 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Jimmy Lai is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf Lai is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to \"Yes\".\n\nIf Lai is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to \"Yes\".\n\nTransporting Lai to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes\". Extradition of Lai to another country whe",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31, 2026: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Jimmy Lai is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf Lai is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to \"Yes\".\n\nIf Lai is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to \"Yes\".\n\nTransporting Lai to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes\". Extradition of Lai to another country where he remains in custody will also not count.\n\nTemporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from relevant government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from relevant government authorities or corrections departments",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.029,
      "implied_probability": 0.029,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-07T09:00:42.355Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 34.102727,
      "volume_total_usd": 14259.589702,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "detention",
        "hong kong",
        "jimmy lai release",
        "politics"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-VK8NB4KYT6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PNLTY8SDR0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x95c0d03797f22593b3b4a1750d1721b8a4b8e89b0899d2f4825046051a3681c9",
      "question": "Jimmy Lai released by June 30?",
      "description": "\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Jimmy Lai is released from custody by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf Lai is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to \"Yes\".\n\nIf Lai is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to \"Yes\".\n\nTransporting Lai to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes\". Extradition of Lai to another country where ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 30, 2026: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-01T08:44:52Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Jimmy Lai is released from custody by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf Lai is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to \"Yes\".\n\nIf Lai is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to \"Yes\".\n\nTransporting Lai to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes\". Extradition of Lai to another country where he remains in custody will also not count.\n\nTemporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from relevant government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from relevant government authorities or corrections departments",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 365354.3253810002,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "detention",
        "hong kong",
        "jimmy lai release",
        "politics"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-VK8NB4KYT6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-01T08:44:52Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-PNLTY8SDR0",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}