{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-HBM0X1Q2V3",
  "slug": "jos-luis-rodrguez-zapatero-sentenced-to-prison",
  "question": "Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be sentenced to prison by 2026?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "spain",
    "legal-proceedings",
    "criminal-justice",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This event tracks whether Spanish courts issue a prison sentence against former Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero by December 3, 2026. A single Polymarket binary resolves yes only if a sentencing judgment explicitly includes a custodial term. Resolution relies on Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle interpreting official Spanish court records. No corroborating platform prices this event, limiting cross-market calibration.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-V8M9ZYJV70",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.07,
    "implied_probability": 0.07
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-V8M9ZYJV70",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-HBM0X1Q2V3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x3fcd367d1aecd2e01fb6ddc7dc971e30c85f64ff58269f58e601849d569c3829",
      "question": "José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero sentenced to prison?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero is sentenced to any time in jail/prison for any charges, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis market will remain open through December 31, 2026, or until the specified individual is sentenced to time in jail/prison, regardless of any initial sentencing that does not include prison. Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence.\n\nCivil lawsuits, regulatory actions, administrative complaints, investigations without charges, internal employm",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Spanish courts' sentencing judgment against José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero including any prison term imposed by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero is sentenced to any time in jail/prison for any charges, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis market will remain open through December 31, 2026, or until the specified individual is sentenced to time in jail/prison, regardless of any initial sentencing that does not include prison. Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence.\n\nCivil lawsuits, regulatory actions, administrative complaints, investigations without charges, internal employment actions, or public accusations without the filing of criminal charges will not qualify, even if widely reported or described colloquially as “charges.”\n\nIf at any point the investigation or any resulting criminal case against the specified individual formally ends without any possibility of a jail/prison sentence being issued, including due to no charges being filed, charges being dismissed, an acquittal, or any other situation in which no judgment is rendered or will be rendered by the court, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from the relevant government and law enforcement",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 74,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.07,
      "implied_probability": 0.07,
      "volume_24h_usd": 3332.872773,
      "volume_total_usd": 25581.59670000001,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "former prime minister",
        "jos luis rodr",
        "legal outcome",
        "spanish politician"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-HBM0X1Q2V3",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}