{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-SVZXJJB8V4",
  "slug": "joseph-aoun-out-as-president-of-lebanon-by-december-31",
  "question": "Will Joseph Aoun be out as President of Lebanon by December 31?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "lebanon-politics",
    "executive-leadership",
    "middle-east",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether Joseph Aoun vacates the Lebanese presidency before December 31, 2026. Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle resolves based on verified cessation of Aoun's presidential tenure. Only one platform structures this event, so no cross-platform contrast applies. Resolution hinges on whether credible public record confirms Aoun no longer holds office by the deadline.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-SJ55DL35Z8",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.05,
    "implied_probability": 0.05
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SJ55DL35Z8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-SVZXJJB8V4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x756b85cb4e3a4df45069df41a4c433634f80eaa025f0367e5a2a111ae01f4cb7",
      "question": "Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Joseph Aoun ceases to be President of Lebanon for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Joseph Aoun's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nIf the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this mar",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "UMA Optimistic Oracle resolves based on whether Joseph Aoun ceases to be President of Lebanon by December 31, 2026, as determined by credible news reports and official announcements.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Joseph Aoun ceases to be President of Lebanon for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Joseph Aoun's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nIf the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Joseph Aoun and the government of Lebanon; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from Joseph Aoun and the government of Lebanon",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 26,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.05,
      "implied_probability": 0.05,
      "volume_24h_usd": 3,
      "volume_total_usd": 30932.36899000001,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "joseph aoun lebanon",
        "lebanon",
        "politics",
        "presidency"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-SVZXJJB8V4",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}