{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-7Y0G7XF0S2",
  "slug": "july-inflation-china-annual",
  "question": "Will China's July inflation be annual by August 10, 2026?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "economy",
    "inflation",
    "china",
    "cpi",
    "monetary-policy"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track China's year-over-year CPI change for July 2026, sourced from China's National Bureau of Statistics. Five Polymarket binary contracts cover exhaustive, non-overlapping rate bands: at or below 0.6%, 0.7%-0.8%, 0.9%-1.0%, 1.1%-1.2%, and 1.3% or above. Together they reconstruct a discrete probability distribution over the full outcome space. Resolution occurs via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against the NBS report due by August 10, 2026.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-J8LB0BD4Y7",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.35,
    "implied_probability": 0.35
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-ZKSLK1GV30",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-7Y0G7XF0S2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x6cf390658a6481b87a449f4bb0989c753364e96c7e867efe7373a0c333095411",
      "question": "Will China's CPI increase by ≤0.6% over the 12 month period ending in July 2026?",
      "description": "This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over a 12-month period ending July 2026 as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the number the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by during the 12-month period ending July 2026 (% change from the same month in the previous year) according to the monthly NBS report.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for July 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently scheduled to be released in A",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "≤0.6%: China's National Bureau of Statistics July 2026 Consumer Price Index monthly report, released by August 10, 2026, determines the 12-month CPI percent change.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-10T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-10T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over a 12-month period ending July 2026 as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the number the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by during the 12-month period ending July 2026 (% change from the same month in the previous year) according to the monthly NBS report.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for July 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently scheduled to be released in August 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.\n\nYou can find the relevant figure by locating the report for July 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named \"Consumer Price Index in July 2026\", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled \"Growth Rate Y/Y (%)\".\n\nNote: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "stats.gov.cn",
            "url": "https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "stats.gov.cn",
            "url": "https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "the official monthly NBS CPI news release",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 91,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.023,
      "implied_probability": 0.023,
      "volume_24h_usd": 40,
      "volume_total_usd": 830.7793330000001,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 0.6,
      "question_id": "CMX-2E98F7A235",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "china",
        "china cpi",
        "cpi",
        "inflation"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-J8LB0BD4Y7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-7Y0G7XF0S2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xbb97c83b7aae4e3c598d5ebb229c724e4761237ffcce775b2845a6679d5a0214",
      "question": "Will China's CPI increase by between 0.7% and 0.8% over the 12 month period ending in July 2026?",
      "description": "This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over a 12-month period ending July 2026 as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the number the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by during the 12-month period ending July 2026 (% change from the same month in the previous year) according to the monthly NBS report.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for July 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently scheduled to be released in A",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "0.7% - 0.8%: China's National Bureau of Statistics July 2026 Consumer Price Index monthly report, released by August 10, 2026, determines the 12-month CPI percent change.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-10T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-10T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over a 12-month period ending July 2026 as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the number the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by during the 12-month period ending July 2026 (% change from the same month in the previous year) according to the monthly NBS report.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for July 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently scheduled to be released in August 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.\n\nYou can find the relevant figure by locating the report for July 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named \"Consumer Price Index in July 2026\", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled \"Growth Rate Y/Y (%)\".\n\nNote: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "stats.gov.cn",
            "url": "https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "stats.gov.cn",
            "url": "https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "the official monthly NBS CPI news release",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 91,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.35,
      "implied_probability": 0.35,
      "volume_24h_usd": 3271.1080839999995,
      "volume_total_usd": 8611.36150000001,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 0.7,
      "question_id": "CMX-E0193D6522",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "china",
        "china cpi",
        "cpi",
        "inflation"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-VC23SDQ8H3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-7Y0G7XF0S2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x653f182abecd6b9b970db1ba0e14b6a394b3076a6fa45a04d6cf65ad45b2b6cc",
      "question": "Will China's CPI increase by between 0.9% and 1.0% over the 12 month period ending in July 2026?",
      "description": "This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over a 12-month period ending July 2026 as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the number the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by during the 12-month period ending July 2026 (% change from the same month in the previous year) according to the monthly NBS report.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for July 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently scheduled to be released in A",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "0.9% - 1.0%: China's National Bureau of Statistics July 2026 Consumer Price Index monthly report, released by August 10, 2026, determines the 12-month CPI percent change.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-10T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-10T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over a 12-month period ending July 2026 as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the number the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by during the 12-month period ending July 2026 (% change from the same month in the previous year) according to the monthly NBS report.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for July 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently scheduled to be released in August 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.\n\nYou can find the relevant figure by locating the report for July 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named \"Consumer Price Index in July 2026\", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled \"Growth Rate Y/Y (%)\".\n\nNote: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "stats.gov.cn",
            "url": "https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "stats.gov.cn",
            "url": "https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "the official monthly NBS CPI news release",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 91,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.27,
      "implied_probability": 0.27,
      "volume_24h_usd": 487.8137,
      "volume_total_usd": 6515.978510000001,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 0.9,
      "question_id": "CMX-E0193D6522",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "china",
        "china cpi",
        "cpi",
        "inflation"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MVN6R94L50",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-7Y0G7XF0S2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x46752ceb9041abcf0a6bc0411d1392ce6c20b3c6f75bfe0207964b037de0b611",
      "question": "Will China's CPI increase by between 1.1% and 1.2% over the 12 month period ending in July 2026?",
      "description": "This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over a 12-month period ending July 2026 as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the number the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by during the 12-month period ending July 2026 (% change from the same month in the previous year) according to the monthly NBS report.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for July 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently scheduled to be released in A",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "1.1% - 1.2%: China's National Bureau of Statistics July 2026 Consumer Price Index monthly report, released by August 10, 2026, determines the 12-month CPI percent change.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-10T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-10T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over a 12-month period ending July 2026 as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the number the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by during the 12-month period ending July 2026 (% change from the same month in the previous year) according to the monthly NBS report.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for July 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently scheduled to be released in August 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.\n\nYou can find the relevant figure by locating the report for July 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named \"Consumer Price Index in July 2026\", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled \"Growth Rate Y/Y (%)\".\n\nNote: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "stats.gov.cn",
            "url": "https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "stats.gov.cn",
            "url": "https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "the official monthly NBS CPI news release",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 91,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.3,
      "implied_probability": 0.3,
      "volume_24h_usd": 211.40332500000002,
      "volume_total_usd": 5142.893653000001,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 1.1,
      "question_id": "CMX-E0193D6522",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "china cpi",
        "cpi",
        "inflation"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-658LB65BQ0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-7Y0G7XF0S2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x66191342af4e1192738c19d8e41c1f15bf300582a9bc9ed83aca5295a9ffe5ce",
      "question": "Will China's CPI increase by at least 1.3% over the 12 month period ending in July 2026?",
      "description": "This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over a 12-month period ending July 2026 as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the number the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by during the 12-month period ending July 2026 (% change from the same month in the previous year) according to the monthly NBS report.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for July 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently scheduled to be released in A",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "1.3%+: China's National Bureau of Statistics July 2026 Consumer Price Index monthly report, released by August 10, 2026, determines the 12-month CPI percent change.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-10T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-10T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over a 12-month period ending July 2026 as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the number the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by during the 12-month period ending July 2026 (% change from the same month in the previous year) according to the monthly NBS report.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for July 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently scheduled to be released in August 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.\n\nYou can find the relevant figure by locating the report for July 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named \"Consumer Price Index in July 2026\", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled \"Growth Rate Y/Y (%)\".\n\nNote: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/",
        "sources": [
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            "url": "https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/",
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            "name": "stats.gov.cn",
            "url": "https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/",
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          {
            "name": "National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "the official monthly NBS CPI news release",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 91,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.009,
      "implied_probability": 0.009,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 487.61135,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1.3,
      "question_id": "CMX-A02DE319E1",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "china",
        "china cpi",
        "cpi",
        "inflation"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-7Y0G7XF0S2",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}