{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-W685KJTLC3",
  "slug": "july-inflation-us-monthly-20260714151042665",
  "question": "Will US July inflation meet or exceed expectations?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "economy",
    "inflation",
    "united-states",
    "monthly-data",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly CPI change for July 2026, released August 12, 2026. Nine Polymarket binary contracts collectively span the full distribution from deflation of 0.7% or more to inflation of 0.1% or more. Each contract isolates a discrete CPI outcome, allowing traders to express views across the probability distribution rather than a single directional call. All nine resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against the official BLS release.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-RMQF0Q8CY7",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.72,
    "implied_probability": 0.72
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-QVZ40N52Q1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-W685KJTLC3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x3da407646064d05633a89299f41aef21aed3a31b6b24dc9616d0bcf19ecdf5d3",
      "question": "Will monthly inflation decrease by 0.7% or more in July?",
      "description": "This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).\n\nThis market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in July 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for July 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on August 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resol",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "≤-0.7%: The Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly Consumer Price Index report for the referenced month, released August 12, 2026, determines the one-month seasonally adjusted percent change.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-12T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-12T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).\n\nThis market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in July 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for July 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on August 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.\n\nNote: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.\n\nIf the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "bls.gov",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "bls.gov",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/schedule",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://www.bls.gov/schedule",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.002,
      "implied_probability": 0.002,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 969.74895,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": -0.7,
      "question_id": "CMX-2258C32D8E",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "cpi",
        "inflation",
        "us",
        "us monthly inflation"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-HTHJDSN1M7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-W685KJTLC3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xfe8eede95ceb57ece81308289903b92e6bc4c47b384c9ba21d0be27a44506a0e",
      "question": "Will monthly inflation decrease by 0.6% in July?",
      "description": "This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).\n\nThis market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in July 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for July 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on August 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resol",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "-0.6%: The Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly Consumer Price Index report for the referenced month, released August 12, 2026, determines the one-month seasonally adjusted percent change.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-12T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-12T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).\n\nThis market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in July 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for July 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on August 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.\n\nNote: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.\n\nIf the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "bls.gov",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "bls.gov",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/schedule",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://www.bls.gov/schedule",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.003,
      "implied_probability": 0.003,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 894.2398999999999,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": -0.6,
      "question_id": "CMX-70BC0758CC",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "cpi",
        "inflation",
        "us",
        "us monthly inflation"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-FVH2K1VSH9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-W685KJTLC3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x4fb822b59cbe5ec0ff3239075bddd38babb83abe8ad3894f65e0b5a2b71ede50",
      "question": "Will monthly inflation decrease by 0.5% in July?",
      "description": "This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).\n\nThis market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in July 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for July 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on August 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resol",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "-0.5%: The Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly Consumer Price Index report for the referenced month, released August 12, 2026, determines the one-month seasonally adjusted percent change.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-12T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-12T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).\n\nThis market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in July 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for July 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on August 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.\n\nNote: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.\n\nIf the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "bls.gov",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "bls.gov",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/schedule",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://www.bls.gov/schedule",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.002,
      "implied_probability": 0.002,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 722.8019499999999,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": -0.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-8F24433ABC",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "cpi",
        "inflation",
        "us",
        "us monthly inflation"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-DDD23M7G45",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-W685KJTLC3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xdf6600318616976361cec04ea9014be18b2e71593f4e0c59393bec345b9b86ef",
      "question": "Will monthly inflation decrease by 0.4% in July?",
      "description": "This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).\n\nThis market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in July 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for July 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on August 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resol",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "-0.4%: The Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly Consumer Price Index report for the referenced month, released August 12, 2026, determines the one-month seasonally adjusted percent change.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-12T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-12T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).\n\nThis market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in July 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for July 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on August 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.\n\nNote: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.\n\nIf the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "bls.gov",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "bls.gov",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/schedule",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://www.bls.gov/schedule",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.009,
      "implied_probability": 0.009,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 810.1008999999999,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": -0.4,
      "question_id": "CMX-6B8E1B4BC8",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "cpi",
        "inflation",
        "us",
        "us monthly inflation"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2CTTJBXZN7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-W685KJTLC3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xc7dde813a16c8ec829ce13f3449c197e21d1d16716adfbfe95667151833cf24b",
      "question": "Will monthly inflation decrease by 0.3% in July?",
      "description": "This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).\n\nThis market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in July 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for July 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on August 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resol",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "-0.3%: The Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly Consumer Price Index report for the referenced month, released August 12, 2026, determines the one-month seasonally adjusted percent change.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-12T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-12T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).\n\nThis market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in July 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for July 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on August 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.\n\nNote: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.\n\nIf the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "bls.gov",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "bls.gov",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/schedule",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://www.bls.gov/schedule",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.002,
      "implied_probability": 0.002,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 1035.198891,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": -0.3,
      "question_id": "CMX-4B9944BF0C",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "cpi",
        "inflation",
        "us",
        "us monthly inflation"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5ZX90FNTG4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-W685KJTLC3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x63f57ba535e250c0e5b168e4ad3b268215f2e7f962fa92820afdbbdc7e7dc178",
      "question": "Will monthly inflation decrease by 0.2% in July?",
      "description": "This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).\n\nThis market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in July 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for July 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on August 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resol",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "-0.2%: The Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly Consumer Price Index report for the referenced month, released August 12, 2026, determines the one-month seasonally adjusted percent change.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-12T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-12T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
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        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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      "resolution": {
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      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "resolution": {
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        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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  "resolution_log": [],
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    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
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}